Fantasy Premier League managers are always looking for the next big thing.
To jump onto an exciting ‘differential’ before the bandwagon rolls through and rake in the points while your mini-league rivals are still sleeping on him is a dream many FPL managers are continually chasing. But the start of this season has shown the value of staying patient rather than panic-buying the latest shiny new toy.
Ahead of Gameweek 6, which will see lots of wildcards activated ahead of significant fixture swings for clubs including Arsenal, Brighton and Newcastle, The Athletic runs through the ‘trap’ players to avoid — and the ones to stick with.
Take your time in buying
Plenty of fantasy teams are littered with now-unwanted players brought in, knee-jerk, after one or two good gameweeks.
In Gameweek 2, for example, Chelsea winger Noni Madueke (£6.6m), now in 11.5 per cent of FPL sides, had a net ‘transfers in’ figure of nearly a million (942,625) after a monster 20-point haul thanks to his hat-trick against Wolves — but he has blanked in the three gameweeks since.
Rico Lewis (£4.7m) played the 90 minutes in Manchester City’s first three league games, with a clean sheet and an assist leading to 10.6 per cent ownership, but he only played 45 minutes the week after and was then left on the bench for a zero-pointer against Arsenal last Sunday.
Leicester’s Wout Faes (£4.1m), now 13.4 per cent owned, gained 288,000 new owners after a Gameweek 2 goal against Fulham but since then has accumulated just four points across three 90-minute appearances.
It’s easy to pick out cases like those with hindsight, but each of the three has compelling reasons why that early rate of point-scoring was unlikely to continue.
Madueke had one good game against a very weak defence, scoring three times from an expected goals (xG) total of only 0.54, and has plenty of competition for the attacking midfield positions at Chelsea, making him a minutes risk. Lewis was always going to see his game time drop once Kyle Walker (£5.3m), who plays the same position and is City’s captain, returned to full fitness following the European Championship in the summer. And for Faes, you can’t bank on a budget centre-back from a promoted team getting attacking returns (or, indeed, clean sheets) regularly. The Belgian’s xG per 90 minutes is just 0.08.
I wouldn’t buy any of them, especially Madueke and Faes, though Lewis is slightly more attractive now defensive midfielder Rodri (£6.4m) is out with a long-term knee injury.
Are there other ‘traps’ waiting out there?
Well, there’s Danny Welbeck (£5.8m), 19.1 per cent owned, who I predict will regress to the mean. The 33-year-old has never scored more than six league goals in a season for Brighton and has stiff competition for a starting spot from Evan Ferguson and Georginio Rutter. Hold off for now and reassess after their tough fixtures in the next six.
Aston Villa midfielder Amadou Onana (£5.2m), 11.9 per cent owned, has scored twice from set pieces in the first five games but has never netted more than three goals in a single season in his career — in all competitions. I don’t back Andre Onana (£5.0m) either. A porous-looking Manchester United were lucky to keep a clean sheet against Crystal Palace on Saturday, with Onana not far off a premium price for a goalkeeper. Avoid.
Only three midfielders are more ‘in-form’ than Newcastle’s Harvey Barnes (£6.5m), according to FPL metrics, but I suspect his three-goals-in-three-matches purple patch is unsustainable. He has only started two of the five league games so far this season and one of their key attackers Anthony Gordon (£7.3m) is best playing on the left wing, which is also Barnes’ natural position.
Be patient in selling too
Similarly, if a player is a trusted, proven asset, you should give him time, even after a few blanks.
Aston Villa midfielder Morgan Rogers (£5.2m) is performing well, passing the eye test, and was unlucky not to return in the first four weeks of the season. Patient managers were rewarded with two assists and a 10-point haul against Wolves in Gameweek 5, with matches against Ipswich, Fulham and Bournemouth to come for Villa in the next four gameweeks.
Staying in midfield, Crystal Palace’s Eberechi Eze (£6.9m) has blanked four times out of five but has been unlucky, with a harshly disallowed goal against Brentford and plenty of shots and chances still falling to him. He got a goal and an assist in the Carabao Cup last week and also shares penalties with forward Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.4m). Hold.
There are obvious exceptions if a player gets injured, there is a big change in their role or position in their team, or they lose their place. And, naturally, premium players at higher price points should be expected to deliver returns more often. But if a player is fit, starting, and regularly playing 90 minutes or close to it, trust them. It’s not nice seeing a player you ditched prematurely punishing you with a bumper points haul.
Also, don’t be stubborn — at first, I thought Nottingham Forest’s Chris Wood (£6.1m) was a trap. However, he’s changed my mind. Wood is another passing the eye test, has good numbers — 0.55 expected goal involvement (xGI) per 90 — and is on penalties, while striking rival Taiwo Awoniyi (£5.7m) is struggling for match fitness.
Be prepared to shift your thinking if necessary.
So how can you avoid these pitfalls in future? Simple.
Don’t make transfers when emotions are high and you’re desperate to axe an underperforming player, remember that past points don’t always necessarily lead to future ones, and let assets demonstrate their worth over time, rather than feeling like you have to snap a player up quickly after one good game.
Feel free to put a player on your watchlist after a good week — for example, Southampton’s talented 18-year-old Tyler Dibling (£4.5m) after his well-taken goal against Brentford last Saturday — but don’t feel pressured to get them in immediately, even if you’re worried about a price rise.
Take a medium-to-long-term view with every transfer you make. If you look at transfers and your captaincy and plan moves across, say, a six-to-eight-week period, with the flexibility to allow for injuries and suspensions, you give yourself a great chance of being successful.
(Top photo: Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images)
