It’s not even October and the most common question in this week’s mailbag had to do with contingency plans for the Chicago Bears’ offense.
Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has joined the fraternity of Bears play callers who become the proverbial lightning rods in town. It’s been a disappointing start to his tenure with the Bears, but it’s also been only three games.
If we’re to give Waldron some benefit of the doubt, he’s working with a rookie quarterback, has been without Keenan Allen for two games, the O-line has also had injuries, and no one involved in the running game is playing at or above expectations — except maybe left tackle Braxton Jones or running back Roschon Johnson.
It should be way too early to talk about anyone’s job, but that’s what happens when an offense has three touchdowns after an offseason full of hope.
For those who are curious, should the offense continue to sputter and head coach Matt Eberflus feels the need for a drastic change midseason, passing game coordinator Thomas Brown would be a top candidate. It would be the most sensible move considering Brown doesn’t oversee a position, and he did interview for the OC job. Brown is highly thought of around the league.
Bears TE Marcedes Lewis talked to reporters today and said his message to OC Shane Waldron was, “From the oldest guy in the room – being me – to the youngest guy, don’t feel like you can’t coach us. I want to be coached. I want to be great. … He’s very receptive to that.” https://t.co/QHrqIkbhEu
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) September 26, 2024
Only in Chicago could everything seem lined up for success, and then three games in, we’re already wondering about the future of the coaching staff.
The next four games are against teams that rank 31st (Los Angeles Rams), 27th (Carolina Panthers), tied for 29th (Jacksonville Jaguars) and last (Washington Commanders) in defensive EPA (expected points added) per snap, according to TruMedia. It’s a great opportunity for Waldron and the offense to get things fixed.
If not, well, then all the concerns will have been justified.
Now, on to your questions.
Is there any thought that the dysfunction in the run game is driven, in part, by the arranged marriage of Chris Morgan and Shane Waldron? That is, is the lack of existing relationships between those two contributing to the miscommunication and blocking issues we’ve witnessed thus far? — Rob C.
Eberflus and GM Ryan Poles were very high on Morgan. The offensive line coach is often considered the second-most important coach on that side of the ball, and Morgan got the promotion to run game coordinator this year. I expected a more seamless transition. Morgan spent three years on the Washington staff as the assistant offensive line coach while Sean McVay was the tight ends coach. Waldron later joined that staff, and then went with McVay to the Rams.
Despite that commonality, and despite the success the Bears had running the football in Morgan’s first two seasons here, it’s been ugly. The transition has been bumpy.
When talking to the media Thursday, Morgan disagreed with the assertion that the scheme change has led to the O-line seemingly taking a step back.
“I don’t think it’s been a big transition,” he said. “We’re not asking them to do a bunch of stuff they haven’t done before, so, yeah … I don’t see that as a reason or an excuse at all.”
Watching the games, it’s hard to know how much the scheme is playing a role in the subpar performance. The offensive line as a whole has struggled — Morgan said right tackle Darnell Wright tweaked his back during the Indianapolis Colts game. If Wright, who was limited on Thursday, can’t play Sunday, it’ll be the team’s third offensive line combination in four games.
The running backs aren’t doing a good enough job, either. We’ve heard a lot about how it “takes 11” to run the football.
“I think it’s just the attention to detail with everybody,” running backs coach Chad Morton said. “Because I think it’s not like it’s one area. Maybe a misread here. Not getting a block here. It’s just something. That’s something we can all fix collectively as a group.”
The play calling, blocking, running and coaching can all be pointed to, and that includes the Waldron-Morgan duo. For whatever it’s worth, Morgan feels confident ahead of Sunday.
“We got to do a better job as coaches and players,” he said. “We know that. We’ve talked about that. We’re moving forward and we’re going to attack it. The guys were great when they got back in the building. Expect to have a big week, you know what I mean.”
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With the OL consistently caving in, does it make sense to create a lot more floating pockets to the left and right? That would stop the DL from teeing off with blitzes up the middle. Caleb also seems to be tailor-made to throw on the fly right AND left. — Barry B.
Speaking of deja vu all over again, we’re already asking for moving pockets, something that was a common topic during the Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields eras. I get it! It’s a fair point, Barry, and with Williams’ ability to make accurate throws on the run, it makes sense.
Coaches prefer not to cut the field in half, especially with a quarterback like Caleb Williams who is comfortable in the pocket, can see the defense and make every throw. However, if the offensive line isn’t giving him the time to do those things, then you have to adjust. I did think the pass protection was better in Indianapolis. The Bears had cleaner pockets. They’ll have a tough test against Rams rookie Jared Verse, but I’d rather see screen passes, draw plays and quick slants as a way to counter those blitzes than more designed rollouts.
Will Roschon Johnson become RB1? — Tracy H.
I’m very curious to see what Johnson’s usage will be in Week 4. He was clearly the team’s most effective runner against the Colts (eight carries for 30 yards; four catches for 32 yards), but he’s primarily been a third-down and two-minute back. He didn’t show as a rookie the potential to be an every-down runner, which is why the Bears spent big money on D’Andre Swift.
Now that we’re three games in and have witnessed how poor the run game has been and Swift’s lack of production, it’s fair to wonder what tweaks we’ll see. While it’s probably not a bad idea to give Johnson more carries, I’m not sure if he’s shown more than being good at his specific role.
“Roschon did a great job as he built his way back into the offense, coming off injury, playing more and more,” Waldron said. “I think he’s done an excellent job with it.”
Waldron said that last week’s plan had Khalil Herbert as the goal-line back. Maybe that’s an adjustment we see — does Johnson get those carries? I’d still expect Swift to be the main first-down back, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if every few series, the Bears decide to give Herbert or Johnson those touches to mix things up and find a hot hand.
There was a lot of talk preseason about if Dexter could make a second-year jump. It feels like he’s improved, do the numbers back that up? — Jordan M.
They do. Gervon Dexter Sr. is tied for the team lead with two sacks, two tackles for loss and four QB hits. The advanced stats are also favorable for Dexter. According to ESPN’s “pass rush win rate,” Dexter ranks sixth in the league among defensive tackles (Andrew Billings, who’s off to a phenomenal start, is third).
Pro Football Focus has charted seven pressures for Dexter in three games, which would set him on pace for about 10 more pressures than his rookie season. PFF’s “pressure rate” stat did decrease slightly for Dexter (10.4 percent to 9.6 percent), as his playing time has shot up. He’s on pace to nearly double his playing time.
.@GervonDexter breaks through for the SACK 💥
📺: #TENvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/XyHrc3ecpK
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) September 8, 2024
The numbers are where you’d want them to be for someone like Dexter who had a lot of hype coming into the season, and there’s reason to think he can keep getting better, too.
“This young man works as hard and as diligent as you will see, as I have seen in practice.” defensive coordinator Eric Washington said. “He comes out every single day and he’s focused on that particular moment. What we’re emphasizing, the situations that we’re working on and he’s just working on what he is going to do in the game during practice. I can’t say enough about that.”
The Bears used a fourth-round pick on a punter and the Bills selected a OL in the fifth who’s starting. How does Poles justify taking a flier when there’s a glaring need for depth at key positions? — Jim C.
Two things can be true — three weeks in, we can definitely ask questions about the offseason plan along the offensive line. And when a team drafts a punter, he has to be very good, and a reliable foot for a long time. But that specific draft spot isn’t an issue — at least, not yet.
In the past two seasons, 31 offensive linemen started at least 10 games as a rookie and only two — Jamaree Salyer and Braxton Jones — were drafted in the fifth round or later. In those two drafts, 40 offensive linemen were drafted in Rounds 5, 6 or 7. That’s a friendly reminder that Sedrick Van Pran-Granger is the exception, not the rule. Players drafted that late can’t be counted on to start as rookies. The Buffalo Bills found a good one, apparently, but that doesn’t mean the Bears would’ve found the right one on Day 3.
The “depth” that Poles acquired for the O-line — Matt Pryor, Ryan Bates, Kiran Amegadjie — are better options than a fifth-round pick.
However, I do think it’s absolutely worth scrutinizing the way this line has been built. I find it hard to believe that Bates is so good that his injury has crippled the group. Whether you want to discuss taking Amegadjie instead of an O-lineman who could start right away, or the Bears’ decision to not spend more on an O-lineman in free agency, those are fair talking points.
Bears-Rams fun facts
• The Bears lead the all-time series 54-39-3 with a 31-14-2 record at home. It’s their longest-running, non-division series.
• The Rams have won three in a row in the series, all coming in Los Angeles. The Bears’ last win over the Rams came in December 2018, a 15-6 victory.
• The Bears have not lost to the Rams at Soldier Field since 2003, having won three in a row at home in the series.
• Matthew Stafford has a 12-9 career record against the Bears with 35 touchdown passes, 23 interceptions and an 88.6 passer rating. At Soldier Field, Stafford has a 5-6 record. This will be his first game in Chicago as a member of the Rams.
Game picks: Bears (-3) vs. Rams, Noon CT on Fox
Kevin Fishbain (3-0 straight up, 0-3 against the spread): Bears 25, Rams 23
McVay has been to the playoffs five times in his first seven full seasons as Rams head coach. The Bears have been to the playoffs five times in the past 22 seasons. That coaching edge should be enough for the Rams to cover, but I think the Bears can find a way to a win against an injury-depleted group. Williams, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet provided the hope last week, and if Allen is back, the Bears can come out victorious with the defense continuing to play at a high level.
Adam Jahns (2-1, 2-1): Bears 23, Rams 20
Honestly, this is more of a gut pick. The Bears have talked all week long about having better communication as an offense. That’s typically a red flag, especially this early in a season. But the Bears defense has enough to pester Stafford all day long. And Williams’ connection with Odunze should continue to click after his breakthrough last week in Indianapolis.
Dan Pompei (2-1, 0-3): Rams 23, Bears 20
Aside from one ugly loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the Rams have been surprisingly competitive given the critical players they are missing because of injuries. They win because of a head coach who is one of the best in today’s game and a quarterback who has 5,761 passing yards and 35 touchdowns against the Bears. Their defense is vulnerable, but the Bears have yet to show they are capable of taking advantage of a soft defense.
Jon Greenberg (2-1, 2-1): Bears 27, Rams 24
The Bears’ issues continue but Williams does enough to calm a nervous fan base with 245 yards and two touchdowns. Cairo Santos wins it with a chip shot as time expires.
Jourdan Rodrigue (Rams beat writer): Rams 24, Bears 14
Stafford may have to settle in and play a more conservative style of football than normal against the Bears’ talented passing defense, but these days McVay and the Rams show little aversion to leaning on the run game. The Rams defense will let a couple big passing plays past them, particularly if Williams extends with his legs (where this young defense has been particularly susceptible the last two weeks).
(Photo of Roschon Johnson: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
