WASHINGTON — Even in the final weekend of this charmed Phillies season, manager Rob Thomson pushed his starting pitchers. He wanted Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to reach 200 innings — a number that meant something to both veteran pitchers.
Wheeler did it. “Hell of a year,” Thomson told his ace as he took the ball from him in the seventh inning Saturday afternoon. Nola fell two outs short Sunday because his pitch count was too high by the sixth inning. He understood; Thomson had told him the personal quest would not outweigh the bigger goal.
But there is something to be said for both pitchers being within range of 200 innings after two consecutive seasons pitching deep into October. The Phillies wielded the rotation as their competitive advantage all season. No National League team had more six-inning starts than the Phillies’ 87. They went 65-22 in those games.
They did not treat the third time through an opposing lineup as a penalty. Instead, Phillies starters had the lowest OPS against (.690) when facing a lineup for the third time in a game. Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez excelled in those situations.
Postseason baseball is different. Teams tend to lean on their bullpens. There are more frequent days off, which means the best relievers can pitch more often. That third-time-through-the-order penalty is treated as sacrosanct.
Will the Phillies keep pushing their starters in October?
“Part of it is just reading it,” Thomson said. “If Wheels is going out there … I don’t even think about third time through with Wheeler and Nola. Or Sánchez, really. Sánchez’s numbers are actually better third time through. I think it’s just reading stuff and reading swings. What kind of contact the other team’s making on them. Then you make a rational decision.”
The Phillies have played 30 postseason games in the last two years. Their starter went six innings in 12 of them; each time it was either Wheeler or Nola. The Phillies went 10-2 in those 12 games.
In all, there have been 43 postseason starts that lasted six innings from 2022-23. The Phillies have accounted for 28 percent of them.
There is a growing sentiment across the sport that relievers face their own penalty if a lineup sees them a lot during a postseason series. The Phillies like their bullpen. Thomson thinks it’s deeper than it was last October. That could sway his tactics.
There is mutual trust.
“Obviously, the game will dictate itself,” Nola said. “Depending on how the game goes, yeah, we definitely want to keep throwing a lot of innings in the postseason. We really got to take it inning by inning and game by game because we really know how meaningful these games are coming up. How important each pitch is. Each inning, each game. That’s the beauty of the postseason.”
Decisions to make
The Phillies have significant items to debate between now and the first game of the National League Division Series on Saturday. Two-thirds of the outfield is unsettled, while the postseason rotation order is not clear. The outfield situation is complicated by Austin Hays’ various injuries that have limited him to only 11 at-bats against big-league pitching in the last 29 days.
Hays has a stiff back. Tests revealed no structural damage. “He can play to tolerance,” Thomson said. The Phillies expect him to be on the NLDS roster.
What role will he fill?
“I don’t know,” Thomson said. “I mean, (Friday, he) looked pretty good against the righty. So I think it’s matchup-based. Who’s on the mound for us? Who’s on the mound for them? If he’s healthy, he’s going to play against lefties for sure.”
If the Phillies face the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS, they will not see a lefty starter. That could nudge Thomson toward an outfield with Johan Rojas in center and Brandon Marsh in left. The Phillies will carry 14 hitters, allowing Thomson to be aggressive in pinch hitting for Rojas if the situation calls for it. He plans to discuss those scenarios with Rojas before the series begins so he is not surprised.
The Phillies know Wheeler will start Game 1 on Saturday. They could wait until they know who their opponent is before choosing a Game 2 starter. Sánchez, a lefty, had a 2.21 ERA at home and a 5.02 mark on the road. He faced quality opponents at home. The contrast is compelling; the Phillies are factoring it into their equation.
But if the opponent is Arizona or New York, Nola might be the best choice for Game 2. The Diamondbacks (.790 OPS) and Mets (.773 OPS) offenses ranked second and fifth against lefty pitchers this season.
“It’s more about opponent than home and road,” Thomson said last week. “But there is some conversation in there about the home/road stuff. But, also, how do other people feel? If Sanchy starts at home, how does that affect Nola? How does that affect the rest of the clubhouse? That they know that this big-time guy isn’t going Game 2? So there’s a lot of things that have to go into it.”
Would it affect Nola?
“I don’t think so,” Thomson said.
The last roster spot
If Hays is healthy, the Phillies probably have one undecided roster spot — the 12th pitcher. They want someone who can throw multiple innings. It could be someone not on the current roster. Max Lazar and Spencer Turnbull have been throwing to hitters during regular workouts at Coca-Cola Park in Allentown, Pa. The Phillies will have a better understanding of Turnbull’s readiness when he throws this week at Citizens Bank Park.
They might want to keep Turnbull on a regular throwing program. He represents their best rotation insurance if there’s an injury. Turnbull won’t be pushed to a traditional starter’s workload, but he could hypothetically go through a lineup once if the Phillies face a rotation dilemma sometime in October.
Lazar threw strikes in his 11 outings with the Phillies. He went more than one inning a few times. The Phillies could opt for the 25-year-old rookie over Kolby Allard or Taijuan Walker.
October for another Clemens
Kody Clemens spent the first three months of the 2023 season in the majors with the Phillies. He was demoted on July 2. He never returned. He watched the postseason from afar.
He’ll have a spot on the roster this time.
“I’m super grateful that I’ve been here for this time and got to be a part of the celebrations and stuff so far,” Clemens said. “It’s been amazing. So, we’ll see what happens. I’m here for it.”
Clemens’ role could be limited to pinch-hit chances against righties. He’s played sporadically and did not have a great September. But, with Hays as an unknown, Clemens could factor into things. He played more left field with the Phillies in September; he ended the season with a catch against the wall that prevented three runs from scoring in the ninth inning of Game 162, a 6-3 win over the Washington Nationals.
“Thankfully,” Clemens said, “I got there.”
“He catches everything he gets to,” Thomson said. “He looks comfortable out there.”
If the opponent’s pitching staff is light on lefties, and the Phillies decide they need more offense from the outfield, Clemens could leapfrog others on the depth chart.
KODY CLEMENS ARE YOU JOKING pic.twitter.com/S8Cuhm4TLa
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) September 29, 2024
Making the week count
The Phillies will have four workouts during their bye week. They could have played intrasquad games every day. They will do only one — scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.
There is a reason.
“I didn’t want to have too many games,” Thomson said, “because eventually they just go, ‘Oh, this is stupid.’ So we’ll have one game — it’s all-out, full-on playing for something.”
Playing for what?
“I’m thinking about that,” Thomson said. “Because I think there should be a carrot out there.”
Cash rules everything.
“You know how much these guys make?” Thomson said. “I’m not sure how much money I can put up.”
In all seriousness, Thomson wants that scrimmage to matter to his players. He’ll pick the teams, then appoint captains to manage each side. The Phillies have hired four umpires to work the game. They will have the scoreboard running like a normal game. There will be music and crowd noise.
“I don’t think they’d lose their edge, but I think there’s a chance you can get stale,” Thomson said. “I’m more worried about the hitters than the pitchers. Just timing-wise. That’s why we’re playing the game. And then making sure they get velocity in the cages. Crank up those machines, and do as much as we can.”
The message is clear inside the clubhouse.
“Even though you’re not playing games per se, just be locked-in in the work that you are doing,” Nick Castellanos said. “Don’t feel so happy-go-lucky and take these five days as a vacation. Rather than just some downtime. Remain focused and concentrate on whatever it is that we have scheduled that day.”
But … get some rest
It’s not the worst timing to have that first-round bye. A large contingent of the Phillies’ traveling party has been sick; the flu-like illness was bad enough to prompt the team to send Rojas back to Philadelphia because he was so dehydrated. Carlos Estévez was not feeling well Sunday, so the Phillies did not pitch him. Others played through the sickness.
None of the illnesses should affect the roster for the NLDS. But, if the Phillies had to play a game Tuesday, that might have been trickier.
Another layer to everything: Sánchez’s wife is expected to deliver the couple’s first child on Monday in Philadelphia. Sánchez will take a few days to be with his family, but he said he will return to the team for the workouts later in the week. He won’t go too long without throwing.
(Top photo of Aaron Nola: Jess Rapfogel / Getty Images)
