By Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman
The 2023-24 season gave the Calgary Flames exactly what they needed: a dose of reality. Sure, poor performance and expiring contracts forced the organization’s hand, and GM Craig Conroy didn’t fare all that well in the ensuing trade grades, but the sell-off has begun in earnest, and not a moment too soon.
For two consecutive seasons and parts of countless others, Calgary has fielded some of the league’s most intensely mediocre rosters. Too bad to win meaningful games and too good to draft impact players is no way to go through life in the NHL. The Flames seem to have picked a lane. Will they stay in it?
The projection
The shocking thing about Calgary’s projection is that it’s not lower.
A 79-point season is right where the team finished last year and the Flames have only become worse since. Jacob Markstrom and Andrew Mangiapane join a long list of key pieces that have been moved over the last calendar year and what remains is a fairly desolate roster. Markstrom’s departure is especially onerous given how inexperienced and shaky the goaltending looks in his absence.
The Flames will no doubt be among the league’s worst teams this season, but they aren’t a completely barren group either. That’s part of the issue regarding hopes of the team completely bottoming out: Even as currently constructed, the Flames don’t look that bad.
They’ll certainly test that theory this season, but for now, our current simulations only show a 45 percent chance of finishing in the bottom five and 80 percent for the bottom 10. A surprise season in the league’s mushy middle is an unfortunate possibility for Calgary.
The big question
Can Jonathan Huberdeau build off an effective second half?
Historically, the single biggest roadblock to full-fledged Flames rebuilds has been ownership; there’s money to be made on playoff games, after all, and regular-season seats to sell. Forgoing that deliberately for a few years would take a certain degree of commitment and risk tolerance that doesn’t seem to be part of the mix in Calgary.
The single biggest roadblock on the roster, though, remains the presence of Huberdeau, a 31-year-old winger set to make $10.5 million annually until the summer of 2031. The contract isn’t Huberdeau’s fault; when he signed it, he was coming off the best season of his career. It’s not Conroy’s fault, either; at the time, Brad Treliving was Calgary’s GM, and he was desperately trying to save face after losing two franchise-caliber players (Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau) in a matter of weeks.
Now, both parties have to deal with it, and it’s a problem that cuts both ways. Huberdeau, while being paid handsomely, is looking at the prospect of playing out his career as a reminder of the Tkachuk trade and little else. He’s a talented, well-liked player who deserves better.
The Flames, meanwhile, would be trying to rebuild around what is already one of the worst contracts in the sport. Huberdeau signed it as a $10.5 million player — and for the last two seasons, he’s performed like a second-liner. The model projects him to produce a little less than $5 million of value per season over its lifespan and a plus-5 Net Rating this season. Not good.
The best outcome for both sides, in all likelihood, would be Huberdeau finding his game, rehabbing his trade value and seeing what happens next. A few months into last season, that looked like a sucker’s bet. Huberdeau, already coming off a mediocre, drama-packed first season with the Flames, had 15 points in his first 35 games, including one lone point in December. That assist came on the last day of the year.
Down the stretch, though, he showed signs of life, putting up 37 points (eight goals, 29 assists) in 46 games from Dec. 31 onward. That’s not $10.5 million production. It’s also better than nothing — a 66-point pace that, if relatively far removed from his All-Star prime with the Florida Panthers, suggests he still has something left in the tank.
Breaking it down a bit further, in the 2024 calendar year, Huberdeau was 67th in the league in overall points, ahead of players like Tim Stützle and Anze Kopitar. A large part of that (16 points, or nearly half) was fueled by the power play, where it’s a bit easier for Huberdeau’s playmaking skills to take the forefront. After Dec. 31, Calgary’s power play was 11th in actual goals per 60 (8.74) and 12th in expected (9.21). Huberdeau himself was scoring 8.2 points per 60 with the man advantage, putting him in the league’s top 20. That was better than Nathan MacKinnon, Jason Robertson and, yes, Tkachuk. Again, not ideal — but something.
The biggest reason to believe in a potential bounce-back at five-on-five is probably Huberdeau’s down-the-stretch play with Andrei Kuzmenko, acquired from Vancouver as part of the Elias Lindholm trade on Jan. 31. In about 122 minutes together, largely with Yegor Sharangovich as their center, the two were on the ice for about 58 percent of the expected goals scored. Their actual results, naturally, were nuked by a sub-5 shooting percentage and poor goaltending by the Flames (six goals against, two goals for) but the underlying numbers suggest some chemistry; Calgary won on attempts (139-110), shots (59-50), chances (57-38) and high-danger chances (22-24) while they were together.
That winger duo didn’t get much of a shot with Nazem Kadri between them (only 15 minutes), but it’s worth adding that Huberdeau and Kadri looked very strong together in the second half. It was another small sample (123 minutes in 2024), but 53 percent of the goals and a 6-4 tally on the scoreboard is nothing to scoff at. The Flames might have something with that seldom-used trio.
The point to all this, really, is to say that a way out of the muck — for both Huberdeau and the Flames — is at least possible. The contract is what it is, but he also hasn’t forgotten how to play. A power-play specialist and an offense-first winger who, in the right circumstances, can have a positive five-on-five impact is worth something. Maybe not $10.5 million, but something all the same.
The wild card
Can Dustin Wolf prove he’s Calgary’s goalie of the future?
Wolf’s career has followed a template. He’s been doubted at nearly every level in some capacity due to his size (6 feet, 166 pounds), then invariably proven himself, building one of the more impressive resumes imaginable for a young goalie.
The bullet points: He was twice named goaltender of the year in the Western Hockey League and once goalie of the year for the entire Canadian Hockey League. After that, he won a gold medal at the world juniors for the U.S. in 2021. And then, in his first two AHL seasons, Wolf won MVP once and goalie of the year twice.
Now, at 23 years old, the 2019 seventh-round pick is the odds-on favorite to take over for Markstrom as the Flames’ starting goaltender — and once again, there’s reason to wonder whether he’s set to bump his head on the proverbial ceiling. That’s not necessarily based on his size, either; it’s based on what he showed in his 17 NHL appearances last season. They were rough: an .893 save percentage and nearly eight goals allowed above expected.
The end result, for now, is that the model projects him as the second-worst expected starter in the league, behind only Columbus’ Elvis Merzlikins, and as one of five below-average starters leaguewide. Wolf’s minus-6 rating also assumes he’ll beat out Dan Vladar for the job, giving Wolf a positive bump to account for coaching opinion and workload management.
In other words, it’s time to silence a new batch of doubters. He’s done it before.
The strengths
After several seasons of roster turnover, Calgary’s roster is nearly down to the studs — or lack thereof, in all honesty. There isn’t a lot to be excited about with Calgary’s current roster, a telling sign regarding the team’s current trajectory. Still, there are some bright spots.
That starts with the top pair of MacKenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson. While the rest of the group is lacking, they’re at least anchored by a duo that grades out as average. For a team slated for the bottom five, that’s a plus.
Weegar is Calgary’s unheralded driver at both ends of the ice, a do-it-all workhorse. He’s highly active with the puck in all three zones and fairly efficient with it, leading to some consistently strong on-ice numbers year after year. When Weegar is on the ice, good things happen in high-leverage minutes.
Last season, Weegar finally got a look on the top power-play unit over the team’s final 10 games and made it count — the Flames scored 21.3 goals per 60 on the power play with Weegar on the ice during that stretch. Sure, they ran hot, but it still serves as a signal that Weegar can be an all-situations star on the back end. Those inside the game are big fans which is one reason he’s earned a spot in Tier 3 of our Player Tiers project in each of the last two seasons.
Andersson has lost a little bit of luster over the last season, but still grades out as a decent No. 2 option thanks to his offensive instincts. The duo were Calgary’s most-used pair last season, but their results together took a major step back compared to the season prior (47 percent of the expected goals compared to 55 percent in 2022-23). That likely falls on Andersson, who struggled defensively no matter who he played with. The Flames may be better served to split the pair, spread the wealth in the top four and ease Andersson’s burden. Knowing Weegar and Daniil Miromanov work well together is another good reason to go in that direction.
Up front, the Flames are actually pretty deep on the wing with every winger in the top nine grading out as above average. Only Dallas can boast the same.
That gives Calgary plenty of flexibility for finding fits, especially with how close in value the six wingers are. Without a star winger, the team will probably have a weak top line, but things look up in the middle six where three of the four slots come in well above average. They’ll need to be given the team’s weak depth down the middle.
Here, the actual names don’t really matter — it’s more a matter of who’s slotted where. Whoever’s on the third line will look excellent compared to other third-line wingers, and the same goes for whoever the support winger is on the second line. For now, that’s Blake Coleman, Connor Zary and Anthony Mantha.
Coleman is coming off a career year scoring 30 goals and 54 points while leading the Flames in expected goals percentage. He’s an extremely useful player as the secondary threat on a second line and does well in tough minutes. For a playoff team, Coleman would be a nice luxury to have. Mantha is similar — a useful play-driving winger who can raise a team’s floor.
Of the three, Zary is most intriguing after a strong rookie season in which he scored 2.08 points per 60 at five-on-five. That tied Coleman for third on the team. The 22-year-old showed a knack for driving play in his first season, though he could stand to be a bit more involved with the puck in transition.
That winger depth is what keeps the Flames out of the league’s absolute basement with the San Jose Sharks, Columbus Blue Jackets and Anaheim Ducks. It’s also why the vibes going into the season aren’t strong. When some of the brightest spots on a team are their fourth-, fifth- and sixth-best wingers — it’s difficult to be excited about what’s to come.
The weaknesses
Only one team enters the season with a worse goaltending outlook than Calgary and it’s worth noting the other duo in Columbus at least looked a lot better in 2023-24. No such luck with Wolf and Vladar, who both allowed nearly half a goal per game more than expected last season. Among goalies to face 500 unblocked shot attempts, the duo were side by side at the bottom. The hole left by Markstrom’s departure looks massive.
Wolf will likely get the first crack at the starter’s gig and how he fares depends on how much of his AHL dominance he can channel in the big leagues. His first shot last season did not go well; he finished with an .893 save percentage and allowed 7.7 goals above expected in just 17 games. His age and pedigree make him a decent bet to grow into a solid goalie, but it’s difficult to project him as anything close to starter quality at the moment given what he’s shown to date at this level.
Still, it should be Wolf’s net to lose given his competition. Vladar has played three seasons as Calgary’s backup and it just doesn’t feel like he has what it takes to be above average in that role. Over those three seasons, Vladar has an .894 save percentage and has allowed 20 goals above expected over 70 games. Only seven goalies during that time frame have allowed more goals above expected per game, but only one — Jonas Johansson — remains in the NHL.
Goaltending is Calgary’s biggest problem, but it’s far from the team’s only problem.
Unsurprisingly for a team ranked this low, there’s a serious shortage of stars in Calgary. It’s a void that was left unfilled after the departures of Tkachuk and Gaudreau and has since been exacerbated by the team trading away Lindholm, Noah Hanifin and Markstrom. At the top of the lineup, the Flames would be outclassed by almost every other team in the league.
That issue is primarily Huberdeau’s cross to bear as he was supposed to be the guy to fill that void. While there were signs of a renaissance in the second half last season, it’s going to take a massive bounce-back for him to return anywhere close to the player he was before he arrived in Calgary.
Huberdeau is still rated as Calgary’s best winger and while the Flames do have some decent winger depth after him, the high end is lacking. Neither Sharangovich nor Kuzmenko looks like they have enough substance in their games to be go-to wingers in the top six, limiting their star upside.
Kadri is currently the closest thing the Flames have to a star player up front. While he was terrific in 2023-24, scoring 75 points, there’s a sizable gap between what he and the other top-line centers bring to the table — and his lack of consistency year to year doesn’t help. The average top-line center in the league has a median Net Rating of plus-10.5. The median top-line center on a projected playoff team is plus-13.6. The team’s center depth after him doesn’t look great either.
A lack of stars doesn’t always mean a team is doomed, but it doesn’t help matters that the Flames have a lot of holes throughout the lineup on top of that. Their fourth line looks seriously shaky and the defense corps is looking thin after all the wheeling and dealing over the last year.
Outside of Weegar and Andersson, the other four defenders look miscast in their current roles. Miromanov showed promise last season in a small sample and could surprise, but being the go-to guy on the second pair may be too much for him. It says a lot that he may be the best option after Weegar and Andersson, both about him (good!) and the team (bad!). Kevin Bahl did fine in sheltered minutes with the New Jersey Devils but may struggle moving up the lineup on a weaker team. As for Jake Bean and Brayden Pachal — both look closer to No. 7 defensemen and a third pair featuring both could prove to be a difficult burden for the Flames to overcome.
The other issue with the blue line is the overall defensive prowess. After Weegar, things get ugly quickly. It’s Andersson’s main weak spot and the team’s bottom three defenders don’t offer much relief.
With how weak the goaltending projects to be, that potential defensive inefficiency coupled with the lack of offensive star-power up front might be the snowball effect that sends the Flames reeling down the standings.
The best case
Wolf shows he’s the goalie of the future, Zary takes a big step, Huberdeau is worth the money, Weegar has a Norris Trophy-worthy season and there’s enough depth elsewhere for the Flames to somehow be in the playoff mix.
Or, the whole team falls apart and they finish last.
The worst case
Not good enough to make the playoffs. Not bad enough for the league’s bottom 10. The Flames are roughly as good as expected and have a point-per-game season, which isn’t enough to land them in the league’s bottom five or play meaningful hockey.
The bottom line
The Flames enter the season with a weight off their shoulders after making the tough decision to sell key players. Now Calgary can turn the page and focus on the future. In the short term, that focus has to be ensuring the season outcome falls anywhere but the mushy middle.
References
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.
(Top photo of Nazem Kadri: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
