How Mets-Braves chaos will finalize playoff field, plus Shohei Ohtani's near-misses

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What. A. Day. Let’s dive in on what happened, what’s next — and what’s at stake in today’s Mets-Braves doubleheader. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!

Maximum chaos: Unlocked

The first thing I read yesterday morning was Jayson Stark’s breakdown of all the remaining playoff scenarios. In the NL, yesterday’s most chaotic outcome was going to be if the Braves lost and the Mets and Diamondbacks both won.

Well: Royals 4, Braves 2. Mets 5, Brewers 0. Diamondbacks 11, Padres 2.

That means not only will the Mets and Braves play today, but also both games of the 1:10/4:40 p.m. ET doubleheader are of utmost importance:

If either team sweeps the doubleheader, they’ll eliminate the other, with the Diamondbacks sliding into the third position.
But if they split it, both the Mets and Braves are in, and the Diamondbacks are out.

And then one (or both) teams will fly out — to San Diego or Milwaukee, depending on the final seeding — to start a playoff series the next day. It’s exhausting, chaotic and dramatic.

The AL had some upheaval as well. A win by the Tigers over the 121-loss White Sox or a loss by the Royals to the red-hot Braves would have cemented Detroit as the fifth seed and the Royals as the sixth. Baseball said: absolutely not. White Sox 9, Tigers 5.

That means the Tigers and Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal — led by former Astros manager A.J. Hinch — will now fly to Houston instead of Baltimore, and we’ll get a tongue-twisting Royals-Orioles series.

Ken’s Notebook: MLB should have prevented this scheduling wreck

From my latest column:

Next time, don’t mess around.

That’s the message Major League Baseball should derive from this unfortunate end to the regular season, when the final two playoff berths will be determined by a doubleheader in which the winner of the first game will have zero incentive to win the second.

Obviously, there are greater problems in this world. But for baseball, this is not a good look.

I’m guessing the next time the league is faced with a similar situation — and admittedly, this one is highly unusual — it will be more proactive, less willing to bend to the will of the clubs. At least, I hope that’s the case. The league was in a difficult spot. But something like this should never happen again.

The deference Rob Manfred typically shows owners is one reason he will end up serving 14 years as commissioner. But in this case, he should have dropped the hammer in the best interests of his sport. He seemingly had two solutions available: The shifting of last week’s Mets/Braves series to a neutral site. Or the rescheduling of the series in Atlanta to include a single game last Monday and doubleheader Tuesday.

By now, we’ve heard all the reasons why the league, Mets and Braves chose not to act, even with a forecast of rain on Wednesday and Hurricane Helene to follow. Initially, I thought the league merited the benefit of the doubt. I’ve covered enough games and seen enough forecasts go awry to know how tricky predicting the weather can be.

Well, the worst-case scenario is upon us, achieving just the opposite of what the league intended when it made the correct decision in 2015 to start all games on the final Sunday at the same time. And while the league is celebrating the “chaos,” this is not the kind of “chaos” a true fan should desire. This is a self-inflicted wound, and I cringe thinking about how Game 2 on Monday is going to go down.

More here.

ICYMI: A few finishing touches

There were a few other end-of-season storylines as players and teams wrapped up their records and stats for the 2024 season.

Astros-Guardians got rained out yesterday. Both teams had their playoff positions locked in, so it was a “meaningless” game. But there was one significant implication: Guardians third baseman José Ramírez came into the day with 39 home runs and 41 stolen bases — just one homer short of becoming the seventh member of the 40/40 club. Rough to see him miss the chance.
Celebrated and maligned, Luis Arraez went 1-for-3 for the Padres, winning his third straight batting title (assuming Marcell Ozuna doesn’t go 9-for-9 or better today) with his third different team (Twins, Marlins). Paired with Shohei Ohtani’s 1-for-4 day, that meant Ohtani came up just short (.310 batting average) in his quest for a Triple Crown. He also came up one base short of turning the sport’s first 50/50 season into a 50/60 season. He stole one base to bring the total to 54/59.
Aaron Judge had the day off, meaning his season finishes with 58 home runs and a slash line of .322/.458/.701 (1.159 OPS). Of the seven players in history with a higher mark after 700+ plate appearances, only Sammy Sosa (2001, 1.174) did it more recently than 1936.
The collapses of the Mariners and Twins were sealed before yesterday, but both teams will now have a long offseason to consider what’s next. Seattle fired manager Scott Servais in late August. For Minnesota, Rocco Baldelli will be back in 2025, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey acknowledged changes are coming after a brutal collapse.

Previews: What to know for Round 1

Here’s what’s next for each of the 10 currently known playoff teams:

Home-field byes: In a symbolic win for Cowboys and Lakers fans everywhere, the Yankees and Dodgers each clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. For New York, there’s concern about Anthony Rizzo’s two fractured fingers, though he’s holding out hope he can return soon. Meanwhile, the Dodgers — as we all expected in March, but, man, did it take longer than we expected — locked down the league’s best record. That means they’ll have home-field advantage through the World Series, should they make it that far.

Other byes: Despite a 34-32 record in the second half, the Guardians rode a strong first half to a first-round bye, after which they’ll take on the winner of Astros-Tigers. In the NL, the Phillies will do their best to stay sharp as they await the winner of the Brewers and whomever they end up playing.

Astros-Tigers: In the second half, only one AL team won more games than Houston (38). That would be Detroit (39). Questions for the Astros dynasty as they look for their third World Series in eight years: What will Justin Verlander’s role be after a quality start to end his regular season? And will Yordan Alvarez be healthy enough to play? For Detroit, Cody Stavenhagen has five questions here, but the most pressing is the last one: Can the magic continue?

Orioles-Royals: A matchup of the two most exciting young shortstops in the American League, and we have stories on both of them today. Britt Ghiroli’s in-depth examination of Gunnar Henderson’s ascent to stardom, and nine stories from Rustin Dodd and Jayson Jenks on how Bobby Witt Jr. became “Bobby Baseball.” Ghiroli also took a look at how Kansas City’s success is the result of an entire culture change.

Brewers-TBA: I can’t help it: Even with the huge surprises from the Royals and Tigers, the Brewers are my favorite regular-season surprise. No Corbin Burnes, no Craig Counsell, Devin Williams injured for most of the year, Christian Yelich out for the rest of the year … no problem. They won the NL Central and will take on *deep sigh* … I don’t know, man. Somebody.

Padres-TBA: San Diego made a late push for the NL West, but fell just short, settling for the top wild-card spot. In spite of the bad news on Ha-Seong Kim (he needs shoulder surgery and won’t return for the playoffs), they’re still one of the sport’s most exciting teams, and will be a daunting opponent for … whomever the chaos spits out at them.

Handshakes and High Fives

The Cardinals will be parting ways with first baseman Paul Goldschmidt after this season.

Blake Snell declined to make his final start of the season, looking ahead to free agency. Read into that what you will about his likelihood of returning to San Francisco.

Our trio of writers went cross-sport to try to find out where the 2024 White Sox rank against the worst teams of all time in any sport. Related: How MLB players cope with — and grow from — playing on a terrible team

As expected, manager Skip Schumaker will not be back with the Marlins next year, and is expected to be a hot commodity on the managerial market this offseason.

The A’s played their final game as an Oakland team, losing 6-4 in Seattle. Marcus Thompson II sums up what a lot of Oakland fans must be feeling.

Most-clicked in Friday’s newsletter: Jayson Stark’s annual awards column, featuring MVP and LVP, Cy Young and Cy Yuk, top rookies and managers of the year.

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(Top photo: Michael McLoone / Imagn Images)