Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts and depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are way more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week but all the weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also note as the season progresses that I gave great thought in doing these stats weekly and not for the season. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats just smoothes everything out to a more meaningless middle. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
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Receiver Targets
I’m going to try to ignore what happened in the blowouts.
Jakobi Meyers was No. 1 even though he did little with the opportunities. This would be life without Davante Adams, should he get traded, as many expect. Picking up Meyers in anticipation of this makes sense if he’s on waivers.
Christian Kirk significantly outpaced Brian Thomas Jr., which probably contributed to the Jaguars’ loss. They should flip with Thomas in the top five and Kirk around 25, at least in a rational world.
Wan’Dale Robinson could be a full-PPR cheat even though he’s incredibly inefficient.
RB Justice Hill was the only Ravens receiver listed and probably is the best zeroRB pickup of the week in full PPR. He’s not sexy but he has a projectable floor, especially if the Ravens fall behind.
Travis Kelce was the No. 1 TE again. Of course, there were extenuating circumstances. But Kelce managers have hope now that he has to be the No. 1 read given the loss of Rashee Rice. I get that Kelce can be stopped at his age easier than before if the defense prioritizes that, but I’d still rather him be the primary first read than where we sat before.
D’Andre Swift was the highest charting Bears receiver in addition to his running duties — more on that in the RB section below — but it’s just shocking given the chatter leading up to Week 4.
Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. both get massive upgrades if Joe Flacco is the QB, but Anthony Richardson said he could have played again on Sunday. Monitor this. We don’t know what’s up until practice starts. Downs and Pittman can’t be started if Richardson plays.
Jordan Whittington is someone I’d target on waivers and I don’t think it will cost much. I understand we’re running out of games without the starting receivers, but will Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua remain healthy? I’m almost certain 10% FAAB gets Whittington. I’d be happy with 5%.
Whittington vs. Dontayvion Wicks? Wicks is going to cost so much more. He was 39th in market share. I’d have him maybe WR40 this week. Don’t get carried away. There is WR25 upside here, I stipulate. But Christian Watson is expected to miss two games with his ankle sprain. So they have similar shelf lives. Give me Whittington at expected cost.
I liked Stefon Diggs in draft season at ADP but I’d be looking to trade him. He’s been a top 10 PPR scorer but he was 41st in target share in a week where Tank Dell was out. Maybe wait until after the revenge game this week against the Bills where he could be proactively targeted more than any other game this year.
Ja’Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson are lagging in the model every week and I don’t get it. Neither ranked in the top 50 in Week 4.
Running Back Touches
Swift at No. 3 was a cruel joke played on fantasy football in a season of cruel jokes. The Bears obviously want to make this work. Roschon Johnson was 44th — not a playable number. Swift got the passing game work and was the RB receiver of the week.
Aaron Jones was massively utilized by the Vikings in a big game. Expect more from him when the Vikings are underdogs.
Tony Pollard was No. 6 and continues to outperform his ADP. The Titans offense was all RBs — Tyjae Spears was tied for 19th.
Javonte Williams at No. 11 was almost as shocking as Swift at No. 3. They won so we have to assume he’s regained the reins.
Zack Moss and Chase Brown could be the poor man’s David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs, and both of their managers would sign for that right now.
Rico Dowdle should be rostered everywhere. There’s often someone sexier on waivers, but I said last week that Dowdle would be my pick over Roschon Johnson and would cost less. Dowdle is a low-end RB2 and that’s fine in a WR-heavy strategy in Flex10 or deeper formats.
Kenneth Walker is good. He looked great. He did Spider-Man stuff on Monday night. But 30th in the model is 30th. His upside is capped. The more you believe in the Seahawks as a team, the more you should like Walker and expect more usage. But if you think that defense was exposed by the Lions, you should look to sell Walker high.
Tyler Allgeier should be rostered everywhere. He’s a handcuff-plus. Again, I like Justice Hill as a sly pickup this week. He should score nine points a week and up to 15. And you have to roster Braelon Allen given that Breece Hall may have lost the goal-line job given that cost the Jets the game — his failure to convert twice from the 1. But it’s not an exciting RB waiver week.
(Top photo of Jordan Whittington: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)
