It’s one month into the NFL season — do you know where your team’s Super Bowl odds rank? As we close out an odd September slate and we fall into October, the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) remain undefeated and atop the odds to win the Super Bowl at +500, followed by the San Francisco 49ers (+650) and Baltimore Ravens (+850).
The two-time defending world champs came through in the 11th hour once again, downing the Los Angeles Chargers late in this AFC West matchup. We should’ve seen this from the jump; Patrick Mahomes is now 9-2 in his career against the Bolts. KC has shown it can win tough and grind things out with its defensive prowess (18 points per game allowed). It’ll have to continue leaning on its strong defense considering the ups and downs of Andy Reid’s offense. And with weapons like Hollywood Brown, Isaiah Pacheco, and now Rashee Rice on the shelf, it looks like No. 15 may have to lean on the defense even more than ever.
AFC is as jumbled as ever
There are plenty of legit contenders to the Chiefs’ throne in the AFC. The Buffalo Bills (3-1, +1000 Super Bowl odds) suffered their first loss to the Ravens, who have reestablished themselves with two straight wins after an 0-2 start. The Bills head to H-Town to play the Houston Texans (+1300) in the Stefon Diggs Bowl in Week 5. The Ravens head to Cincinnati to play the Bengals, who now sit with +2500 Super Bowl odds after a 1-3 start. If you have a guy like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, or C.J. Stroud under center, no matter where you are in the standings now, you have a chance to win a championship.
The Ravens really intrigue me from this group. Led by a two-time MVP in Jackson and a sure-fire future Hall of Fame running back in Derrick Henry, who’s just hitting his stride as the league’s leading rusher through four weeks, we can’t sleep on the Ravens despite their 2-2 record. What could be the greatest QB-RB rushing tandem of all-time has led Baltimore to have far and away the league’s top rushing offense (220.3 yards per game), pushing the team to a league-best total offense (429.5 yards per game).
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Can we show the NFC some love?
I know the AFC gets all the headlines, but several NFC teams have shown they deserve just as much respect.
Detroit continues to build off its 2023 NFC Championship Game run with a 3-1 start this season. The Lions’ +1000 Super Bowl odds were boosted by a strong showing in a hotly-contested matchup with the fellow 3-1 Seattle Seahawks (+4000). Jared Goff seems to just be stepping into his final form under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s guidance. Goff went 18-for-18 with 292 passing yards and two scores in the 42-29 win over the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. With a plethora of weapons to throw to, as well as Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield behind maybe the best offensive line in football, the fighting Dan Campbells are ready-made to make another deep playoff run as they head into their bye week.
I think we can finally say it, y’all: the Minnesota Vikings (+1600) are for real. A 4-0 start was capped by a road win against an NFC North rival in the Green Bay Packers (+2500), giving the Vikes a third win over a contender in as many weeks dating back to Week 2 against San Francisco and Week 3 with the Texans. Of course, Justin Jefferson — 89.5 receiving yards per game, four receiving scores — continues to be the superstar that he is, and Sam Darnold is charging toward Comeback Player of the Year honors. But to me, the efforts that Aaron Jones has provided has been the most underrated aspect of this team. The former Packer balled out in his revenge visit to Green Bay (93 rushing yards, 46 receiving yards) but he’s been doing this all season, as he’s averaging 116 yards from scrimmage per game through the first month of the season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4000) were able to shake off a letdown loss to the Denver Broncos by dominating the Philadelphia Eagles (+1500) in Week 4. Baker Mayfield (347 passing yards, 2 touchdowns) continues to put up numbers as he throws the rock out wide to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They’ll look to keep this strong start going when they travel to the ATL with a Thursday Night Football NFC South matchup with the Atlanta Falcons (+3000).
The biggest surprise this season? It may be the Washington Commanders, who sit at 3-1 and +5000 odds to win the Super Bowl. Jayden Daniels’ early rookie campaign success gives me Robert Griffin III in 2012 vibes with how he’s impacting the game as a dual-threat QB in the nation’s capital. But it’s an entirely different level for the fellow Heisman Trophy winner. Daniels is at 82.1 percent completion rate — the highest of any QB through four games in league history — and his 73.4 QBR ranks fourth in the league.
It may be a bit early for Dan Quinn’s squad to win a title, but they appear to have figured out one of the best ways to get you there and that’s with a franchise quarterback. The sky’s the limit for Daniels’ career, but even early on here, he gives Washington a shot to win games every time.
(Photo of Xavier Worthy: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
