Fantasy baseball waiver wire: Taylor Ward, Spencer Arrighetti and more top adds

If your current fantasy roster still even partially resembles the team you drafted, you’re surely in the minority. For the rest of us normal people, I’ll be using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s MLB waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy baseball statistics in regard to control, batted ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap gems to grab now before the squares figure it out next week. At the very bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, as well as two-start pitchers and speculative adds.

(Stats courtesy of Trumedia)

Starting Pitchers

As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are the ability to generate whiffs (first list below) and limit hard contact (second list below). While showing up on one of these two lists may be noise, I’m generally treating an appearance on both as a signal to immediately pull the trigger.

Available Starters: Multiple >30% Whiff Offerings

*(min. 15 pitches, since August 1st)*

• Kyle Gibson, STL — Changeup 43.2%, Sweeper 37.0%
• Chris Flexen, CHW — Changeup 42.6%, Curveball 39.3%
• Mitchell Parker, WAS — Split-Finger 41.9%, Slider 41.7%
• Griffin Canning. LAA — Slider 37.4%, Changeup 37.0%
• Andre Pallante. STL — Curveball 35.1%, Slider 31.1%
• David Peterson. NYM — 4-Seam Fastball 34.0%, Slider 32.7%
• Cade Povich. BAL — Sweeper 33.3%, Curveball 33.3%
• Valente Bellozo, MIA — Curveball 33.3%, Sweeper 30.3%
• Albert Suarez, BAL — Cutter 30.7%, Curveball 30.2%

Available Starters: ≤.350 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only

*(since August 1st)*

• Samuel Aldegheri, LAA — 0.273 xwOBAcon
• DJ Herz, WAS — 0.319 xwOBAcon
• Dean Kremer. BAL — 0.320 xwOBAcon
• Rhett Lowder, CIN — 0.335 xwOBAcon
• Tanner Gordon, COL — 0.337 xwOBAcon
• Jack Kochanowicz, LAA — 0.343 xwOBAcon
• Javier Assad, CHC — 0.348 xwOBAcon
• Jack Leiter, TEX — 0.349 xwOBAcon

Even in many shallow leagues, the pitching supply is scarce, but I’ve been landing on Cody Bradford in most 12-team leagues. If he’s rostered, refer to the SP rankings below and work down the list. Do not be afraid to stream a reliever on a team playing seven games with a chance to win the majority of them — there’s no time to work off starter blowups.

Available Hitters: >107.0 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity

*(min. 60 PA since August 1st)*

• Jesús Sánchez, OF, MIA — 110.1 m.p.h. EV
• Jhonkensy Noel, OF, CLE — 108.9 m.p.h. EV
• Luke Raley, OF/1B, SEA — 107.9 m.p.h. EV
• Matt Wallner, OF, MIN — 107.5 m.p.h. EV
• Paul DeJong, SS, KC — 106.8 m.p.h. EV
• Mickey Moniak, OF, LAA — 106.7 m.p.h. EV
• Heliot Ramos, OF, SF — 106.6 m.p.h. EV
• Addison Barger, OF, TOR — 106.6 m.p.h. EV
• Grant McCray, OF, SF — 106.6 m.p.h. EV

Available Hitters: <25% Chase Rate And >.380 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only

*(min. 60 PA since August 1st)*

• Michael Conforto, OF, SF — 21.8% Chase, 0.464 xwOBAcon
• Spencer Horwitz, 2B, TOR — 24.1% Chase, 0.433 xwOBAcon
• Niko Kavadas, 1B, LAA — 18.3% Chase, 0.409 xwOBAcon
• Ben Gamel, OF, HOU — 16.5% Chase, 0.403 xwOBAcon
• Jared Triolo, 2B, PIT — 17.3% Chase, 0.396 xwOBAcon

Available Hitters: ≥18% Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drive Per Plate Appearance

*(min. 60 PA since August 1st)*

• Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL — 24.7% Pulled FBLD
• Michael Massey, 2B, KC — 22.0% Pulled FBLD
• Keibert Ruiz, C, WSH — 22.0% Pulled FBLD
• Zach McKinstry, SS, DET — 21.9% Pulled FBLD
• Connor Wong, C, BOS — 21.7% Pulled FBLD
• Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT — 19.5% Pulled FBLD
• Mickey Moniak, OF, LAA — 19.2% Pulled FBLD
• Jarred Kelenic, OF, ATL — 17.0% Pulled FBLD

Hidden Gem(s): We’ve reached the wholly pragmatic part of the fantasy season. No time for speculating too far ahead as we’re rounding third and almost home — it’s down to the brass tacks of winning categories…

• Top Overall Add — Taylor Ward, OF, LAA
• Batting Average — Ty France, 1B, CIN
• Runs — Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF
• RBI — Parker Meadows, OF, DET
• HR — Pavin Smith, OF, ARI
• SB — Bryce Teodosio, OF, LAA

Relief Pitchers

Slight pivot on relievers the last month to focus more on targeting roles over skills. If you want to go deeper into all things relievers, I strongly suggest Greg Jewett’s weekly column — nobody does RPs better.

Relievers: Saves + Holds

*(min. 9 SOLDs since the All-Star break)*

• Aroldis Chapman, PIT — 11 SOLDs
• Tyler Kinley, COL — 12 SOLDs
• Tanner Scott, SD — 9 SOLDs
• Griffin Jax, MIN — 9 SOLDs
• Yennier Cano, BAL — 9 SOLDs
• Tyler Holton, DET — 10 SOLDs

Top waiver wire adds by position

Catcher

1. Austin Wells, NYY — +10 teams
2. Keibert Ruiz, WAS — 10/12 teams
3. Alejandro Kirk, TOR — +12 teams
4. Connor Wong, BOS— 12/15 teams
5. Nick Fortes, MIA — +15 teams

First Base

1. Ty France, CIN — +10 teams
2. Spencer Horwitz, TOR — 10/12 teams
3. Andrew Vaughn, CHW — +12 teams
4. Andres Chaparro, WAS — 12/15 teams
5. Niko Kavadas, LAA — +15 teams

Second Base

1. Zack Gelof, OAK — +10 teams
2. Otto Lopez, MIA — 10/12 teams
3. Nick Gonzales, PIT — 12/15 teams
4. Michael Massey, KC — 12/15 teams
5. Brandon Drury, LAA — +15 teams

Shortstop

1. Tommy Edman , LAD — +10 teams
2. Geraldo Perdomo, ARI — 10/12 teams
3. Bryson Stott, PHI — +12 teams
4. Ezequiel Duran, TEX — 12/15 teams
5. Thomas Saggese, STL — +15 teams

Third Base

1. Addison Barger, TOR — +10 teams
2. Mark Vientos, NYM — 10/12 teams
3. Matt Vierling, DET — +12 teams
4. Kody Clemons, PHI — 12/15 teams
5. Jose Tena, WAS — +15 teams

Outfield, +10/12 Team

** MAKE SURE JASSON DOMÍNGUEZ IS ROSTERED **

1. Victor Robles, SEA
2. Parker Meadows, DET
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC
4. Taylor Ward, LAA
5. Matt Wallner, MIN
6. Colton Cowser, BAL
7. Kerry Carpenter, DET
8. Heliot Ramos, SF
9. Jake Fraley, CIN
10. Lane Thomas, CLE

Outfield, +12/15 Team

1. Mike Yastrzemski, SF
2. Jhonkensy Noel, CLE
3. Jesús Sánchez, MIA
4. Victor Scott II, STL
5. Josh Lowe, TB
6. Randal Grichuk, ARI
7. Alec Burleson, STL
8. Mickey Moniak, LAA
9. Lars Nootbar, STL
10. Joc Pederson, ARI

Outfield, +15 Team/Only

1. Bryce Teodosio, LAA (SB priority)
2. Chas McCormick, HOU
3. Johan Rojas, PHI
4. JJ Bleday, OAK
5. Jonny DeLuca, TB
6. Jordan Beck, COL
7. Grant McCray, SF
8. Brandon Marsh, PHI
9. Seth Brown, OAK
10. Michael Conforto, SF
11. Michael Toglia, COL
12. Jake McCarthy, ARI
13. Kyle Stowers, MIA
14. Jacob Young, WAS
15. Brent Rooker, OAK
16. Jose Siri, TB
17. Jesse Winker, NYM
18. Luke Raley, SEA
19. Joey Loperfido, TOR
20. Masataka Yoshida, BOS
21. Trevor Larnach, MIN
22. Garrett Mitchell, MIL
23. Jordan Walker, STL
24. MJ Melendez, KC
25. Leody Tavares, TEX
26. Eloy Jiménez, BAL
27. Alex Verdugo, NYY
28. Derek Hill, MIA
29. Kyle Isbel, KC
30. Bryan De La Cruz, PIT

Starters

** MAKE SURE JACOB, DEGROM, CLARKE SCHMIDT AND REID DETMERS ARE ROSTERED **

1. Spencer Arrighetti, HOU
2. Bowden Francis, TOR
3. Rhett Lowder, CIN
4. Cody Bradford, TEX
5. Matthew Boyd, CLE
6. David Peterson, NYM
7. Albert Suarez, BAL
8. Nick Martinez, CIN
9. David Festa, MIN
10. Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN
11. Cade Povich, BAL
12. Jack Kochanowicz, LAA
13. Samuel Aldegheri, LAA
14. Ryan Weathers, MIA
15. Caden Dana, LAA
16. Luis L. Ortiz, PIT
17. Joey Cantillo, CLE
18. *GAP* — Think about streaming a RP
19. DJ Herz, WAS
20. Zebby Matthews, MIN
21. Dean Kremer, BAL
22. J.T. Ginn, OAK
23. Davis Martin, CHW
24. Colin Rea, MIL
25. Adam Oller, MIA
26. Julian Aguiar, CIN
27. Valente Bellozo, MIA
28. Cooper Criswell, BOS
29. Yariel Rodriguez, TOR
30. Mason Black, SF
31. Hayden Birdsong, SF
32. Frankie Montas, MIL
33. Mitchell Parker, WAS
34. Kyle Harrison, SF
35. Michael Lorenzen, KC
36. Ben Lively, CLE
37. Griffin Canning, LAA

Relievers

1. Porter Hodge, CHC
2. Lucas Erceg, KC
3. Aroldis Chapman, PIT
4. Luke Weaver, NYY
5. Jason Foley, DET
6. Edwin Uceta, TB
7. John McMillon, MIA
8. Tyler Kinley, COL
9. Yennier Cano, BAL
10. Andrew Kittredge, STL
11. Chris Martin, BOS
12. Griffin Jax, MIN
13. Dennis Santana, PIT

Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.

(Top image of Taylor Ward: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images)