At the quarter turn of the season, or as close as we can get to it, let’s look at backup running backs who have outperformed the starting running back in rush success rate (minimum 20 carries). I’m using success rate based on the percentage of yards needed, adjusted for the down, for a first down or touchdown. Stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
Why do we do this? I’m not saying success rate is predictive. I’m saying it’s descriptive of who has performed better on the same teams with the same offensive lines and play callers. If we know it, we can be sure the teams do, too. So at some point, it’s reasonable to assume, the backup may be in line for more carries or even usurp the starter. We want to be a day early, never a day late.
For reference, the NFL average for running back success rate so far in 2024 is 38.8% (min. 20 rushes). You can explore the full chart here.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Chase Brown 58.6%
- Zack Moss 31.3%
- Difference: 27.4 points
The market thought Brown was better based mostly on traits. Moss has been the better pick at ADP thus far and has been a very profitable player. But Brown closed the gap in touches and opportunities both as a runner and receiver in Week 4 and had his best week yet. Moss has been the RB18, Brown the RB31. However, you can’t be getting lapped by your backup in success rate and expect to hold on to the job. Brown should be expected to ascend and Moss to descend.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Bucky Irving 45.7%
- Rachaad White 26.8%
- Difference: 18.9 points
This is one we saw coming since White was horribly inefficient last year and is somehow even less efficient in 2024. No one knew what Irving could do or whether he was limited, due to his lack of size, to a satellite back role. Last week was an even split in backfield touches but I said this week that I’d definitely rather be the Irving manager. Remember, there’s no certainty Irving seizes the top job, but I’d pay for a 25-to-50% chance that Irving becomes the primary back.
New York Jets
- Braelon Allen 48.1%
- Breece Hall 30.4%
- Difference: 17.7 points
The Jets seem committed to Breece Hall. But he was a second-round pick and I don’t think you’d find a personnel man in the NFL who doesn’t think Allen should have been a second-round pick in light of his size, speed and production so far. We can’t read the team’s collective mind, but they really should not be committed to Hall over Allen. Right now, however, you can only pay for about a 50% chance that Allen will be the goal-line back and RB for at least one out of every three series. Allen should 100% be the goal-line back given that Hall cost the team the game on Sunday by not scoring, but this is the Jets. Hall is currently RB13.
Atlanta Falcons
- Tyler Allgeier 51.9%
- Bijan Robinson 36.4%
- Difference: 15.5 points
This is different from Hall and Allen. The Falcons are pot committed to Robinson. It’s all draft capital, I know. Drafting Robinson was stupid given how good Allgeier has been but they’re not going to reverse course. Allgeier is going to play and could continue to outperform Robinson on a per-carry basis. But he needs an injury or a trade, which is certainly possible and would probably be preferred by the team so they don’t have to answer questions about why Allgeier doesn’t play more, constantly embarrassing the front office for the Robinson pick. Robinson is RB20 in PPR.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Tank Bigsby 47.5%
- Travis Etienne Jr. 38.3%
- Difference: 11.2 points
Bigsby was drafted by this front office. Etienne was not. The team is 0-4. Bigsby has dramatically outperformed Etienne, who doesn’t seem to be a bell-cow type anyway. I was embarrassed to say how good Bigsby was in the preseason given the level of competition there, but it’s carried over. I’d be shocked if a healthy Bigsby doesn’t out-carry Etienne going forward.
Tennessee Titans
- Tyjae Spears 40.7%
- Tony Pollard 29.5%
- Difference: 11.2 points
Pollard is tied with Zack Moss at RB18 so far, averaging about 14.6 points per game. Spears has chronic knee issues and literally has no ACL, already suffering from arthritis. Maybe Spears just can’t do more than he’s done. When I’ve watched the Titans, Pollard looks better and more explosive than this success rate suggests. But I hate questioning objective data. Spears has no explosive runs (12+ yards in the model, according to TruMedia) and Pollard is slightly below average by 7.3%.
New England Patriots
- Antonio Gibson 41.4%
- Rhamondre Stevenson 33.8%
- Difference: 7.4 points
Stevenson has a fumbling problem. I think fumbles are at least 50% random but we have to note it and worry about it. On top of that, Gibson has been more effective. The Patriots are committed to Stevenson beyond this year — he’s the seventh highest-paid RB in football. I’d actually be trying to trade for Stevenson now given the heat the fumble issue is getting in fantasy. My stance on this is unchanged even in light of this report, which obviously knocks the price down further. Stevenson is RB25 in scoring heading into Week 5.
Green Bay Packers
- Emanuel Wilson 41.4%
- Josh Jacobs 35.2%
- Difference: 6.2 points
Jacobs is not getting benched. He’s probably not going to lose carries. But Matt LaFleur is a committee coach, just like Sean McVay is a bell-cow coach. So the gravity is going to be to Wilson out-touching August expectations and Jacobs under-touching them. But I think this hurts Jacobs more than it helps Wilson. No doubt, Wilson should be rostered, but I don’t see decent odds that he’ll be a proactive starter in our game. Jacobs is RB28 in points.
Notables
Rico Dowdle is only RB34, one slot behind Allen, but his success rate is elite — ninth-best 47.1%. It’s nuts that he’s available off waivers in nearly half of fantasy leagues. The Cowboys offense should still be at least top 10 in points. Ezekiel Elliott is 46th out of 53 at 29.2% success.
Alexander Mattison didn’t make the cut with 17 carries to date, but he’s just crushing the least successful runner in football, Zamir White, 47.1% to 18.4%. The Raiders should have zero loyalty to White, who was a fourth-round draft pick. But White’s success rate in 2023 was a sterling 51%.
(Top photo of Chase Brown: Matt Kelley/Getty Images)
