Guardians vs. Tigers 2024 ALDS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers will meet in an all-American League Central ALDS that pits baseball’s best bullpen against the sport’s hottest team. The best-of-five series begins Saturday in Cleveland, with a trip to the ALCS, to face the winner of the New York Yankees–Kansas City Royals series, on the line.

Game times

Game 1: Tigers at Guardians, Saturday, Oct. 5, 1:08 p.m. ET, TBS/Max

Game 2: Tigers at Guardians, Monday, Oct. 7, 4:08 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV/Max

Game 3: Guardians at Tigers, Wednesday, Oct. 9, Time TBD, TBS/truTV/Max

Game 4: Guardians at Tigers, Thursday, Oct. 10, Time TBD, TBS/truTV/Max (if necessary)

Game 5: Tigers at Guardians, Saturday, Oct. 12, Time TBD, TBS/Max (if necessary)

Pitching matchups

In the rotation, the Tigers probably have a small advantage overall. Tarik Skubal is the big advantage, of course, but once you get into the meat of these two rotation — which might happen in a longer series than the wild-card round — it’s not quite as obvious who has the best starting pitchers.

For Cleveland, behind ace Tanner Bibee (and his elite slider), there are questions. Gavin Williams throws hard and has a great curveball, and he settled in down the stretch after maybe fixing a tip, but also had some blowups along the way. Matthew Boyd struck out a lot of batters but failed to pitch into the fifth in his past three starts. Ben Lively has been a revelation, but he has a poor strikeout rate and his fastball sits 90 mph. Alex Cobb has a killer splitter, but he’s been nursing a blister.

The Tigers have just as many possible weaknesses, and won’t have Skubal for Game 1 in all likelihood. Casey Mize’s four-seam and splitter combo has him doing well against lefties, but he’s still searching for the right breaking ball to put it all together against righties. Reese Olson hasn’t had the same stuff, exactly, since he came back from injury in mid-September. Keider Montero can be great, but has been inconsistent. Still, with Skubal in hand, the Tigers have a small advantage, and that’s how the projections see it.

But in the bullpen, it flips decisively to the Guardians. They had the best bullpen in the regular season by any metric, and can come with fire (Emmanuel Clase’s 100 mph cutter), ice (rookie Cade Smith’s excellent fastball/splitter combo), and funk (Erik Sabrowski’s riding fastball from the left side). The Tigers have done it a little more with command than stuff, and nobody should sell Will Vest, Tyler Holton and Jason Foley short, but they aren’t quite as dominant as the Cleveland crew.

In a series that may see a ton of relievers, give the Guardians a slight edge. — Eno Sarris

Why the Guardians will win

It seems like yesterday when we were all ganging up on the sad-sack AL Central, teasing the teams for their pitiful play and paltry payrolls. Now look at them. They represent 75 percent of the ALDS. One team stood atop the AL Central for all but six days this season: the Guardians. They’re actually built better for October than they were for 162 games. Their bullpen was not just the best in baseball, but also the best by miles (or, well, ERA. They were more than a half-run better than any other team). With an abundance of off days before and during these playoff series, rookie manager Stephen Vogt can lean on Clase and company even more. The Tigers and the rest of the AL Central became familiar with Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith and Tim Herrin this summer. To those in faraway places tuning in for some October tension, get ready to learn about the best-kept secret in baseball. — Zack Meisel

Why the Tigers will win

Have you seen this team play? Constantly with their backs against the wall, consistently pulling magical moments out of thin air, these players are riding a high that has made them the hottest team in the game for the better part of two months. They’ve proven their patented “pitching chaos” can work. Skubal should be available to pitch in Game 2 and Game 5 (if needed). As fearsome as Cleveland’s bullpen is, the Tigers build their lineups in hopes of being able to secure small advantages in late-inning scenarios. They just took down an Astros team with far more talent on paper. The Tigers’ lack of punch on offense remains a concern, but if they can strike early against Cleveland starters, there’s no reason they can’t keep winning. — Cody Stavenhagen

Check back later for series predictions from The Athletic’s MLB staff.

Guardians player spotlight: José Ramírez

Perhaps the most common talking point about José Ramírez — who’s headed for a sixth top-six finish in the AL MVP balloting in the last eight years — is that he’s underrated. If that conversation takes place often enough, maybe he’ll reach the status of being properly rated. He finished one home run shy of becoming the seventh player in league history with a 40/40 season, but no one outside of Cleveland noticed, since Shohei Ohtani was busy recording a 50/50 campaign. So, Ramírez said next year he’ll shoot for “80/80. Nothing’s impossible” — in one of those scenes where everyone else in the room laughs but he remains stoic, and you think, “Wait, maybe he’s being serious.” Ramírez is Cleveland’s heartbeat, a guy who can hit one into the seats, hit one into the gap, run until his helmet flies off. He’s just a pain to play against. And a starring role in a postseason run could finally elevate him into the ranks of the properly rated. As his teammate, Austin Hedges, said: “These are the moments that make you immortalized. He’s already immortalized in Cleveland, but I am just dying for him to get immortalized (by) the world.” — Meisel

Tigers player spotlight: Tarik Skubal

Skubal is the obvious choice to spotlight. If you told the Tigers right now they would get to a Game 5 with Skubal on the mound, they would take it. The presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner surrendered only one run over seven innings in his lone start against the Guardians this season. His varied attack plans — fastball, changeup, sinker, slider — make him a threat to any hitter, and he’s become an unpredictable force who pounds the strike zone no matter which weapon he chooses. Counting the Wild Card Series, the Tigers are 22-10 on days Skubal starts this season. They would not be here without him. Now, can he carry them one step further? — Stavenhagen

Tale of the Tape

Who has the edge?

TEAMS	R/G	SP ERA	RP ERA	OPS+
Tigers	4.21 (20th)	3.69 (4th)	3.55 (5th)	94 (22nd)
Guardians	4.40 (14th)	4.40 (24th)	2.57 (1st)	99 (18th)

Guardians top performers

	PLAYER	POS	KEY STATISTICS	WAR
Lineup	José Ramírez	3B	39 HR, 39 2B, 143 OPS+	6.8
Rotation	Tanner Bibee	RHP	3.47 ERA, 187 Ks, 117 ERA+	2.7
Bullpen	Emmanuel Clase	RHP	0.61 ERA, 47 Saves, 674 ERA+	4.5
Fielding	Andrés Gimenéz	2B	20 DRS, 15.7 UZR	15.7 (dWAR)

Tigers top performers

	PLAYER	POS	KEY STATISTICS	WAR
Lineup	Riley Greene	LF	24 HR, 27 2B, 133 OPS+	5.4
Rotation	Tarik Skubal	LHP	2.39 ERA, 228 Ks, 170 ERA+	6.3
Bullpen	Will Vest	RHP	2.82 ERA, 0.4 HR/9, 145 ERA+	1.5
Fielding	Parker Meadows	CF	5 DRS, 3.1 UZR	4.2 (dWAR)