The goal to betting on sports is winning money and the biggest predictor of that success is beating the market. What that means is that if you bet a game at -3 (-110) and the line has moved to -3.5 (-110) by the time the game starts, you’ve gotten “closing line value.” Do that on the majority of your bets and you’ll find yourself on the good side over a large enough sample.
But it’s good to remember that on a one week sample, anything can happen.
Last week I beat the market on four out of six plays (the Seahawks front-seven injuries were worse than I thought or else I think this would have been five out of six) and despite the success with the closing line, I only managed to win two bets. At the end of the day, the process was good but the results weren’t. Over time, the process will win out.
Last week’s record: 2-4, -2.15 units
Season record: 11-11-2, -0.75 units, -2.9% ROI
The next thing I want to talk about is not forcing bets when you’re not seeing value on the board. This is becoming quite the educational piece. There are a ton of injuries across the NFL this week and that’s why I have been delayed with putting out plays this week. Fact of the matter is that I don’t have a ton of edges in the market as it stands right now and I won’t force anything just to do it. That’s not a good process and will lose out over the long-term.
As it stands right now, I have two plays (one is a half risk). I have a couple lined up if injuries break my way, but I don’t expect this to be a big card and that’s totally fine. Opportunities arise when there is uncertainty in the market, but if I don’t have a good feel on what’s going to happen, I’m fine with staying away.
As always, please shop around for the best price. Good luck!
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Best bets for NFL Week 5
All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. I’m also sharing a “worst line to bet,” which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet. All odds are from BetMGM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline (+110) at Atlanta Falcons (risk 0.5 units)
Atlanta has the seventh-highest blitz rate in the NFL. You’d expect them to have at least an above-average pressure rate, right? Wrong. The Falcons rank 24th in pressure rate and when you’re committing that many resources to generate pressure and it’s not getting home, your defense is going to suffer. On the other side, Kirk Cousins is 30th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in Dropback Success Rate against the blitz according to TruMedia. Todd Bowles has his Bucs defense blitzing at a top-five rate this year and I don’t think that bodes well for the Falcons offense.
- Worst line to bet: Buccaneers moneyline (+100)
Cincinnati Bengals moneyline (+120) vs. Baltimore Ravens
I don’t love backing the Bengals defense (it’s very bad) against the freight train that is the Ravens offense right now. The matchup I like, though, is the Bengals offense. The Ravens are 25th in the Dropback Success Rate on defense and that has to be getting Joe Burrow and the Bengals very excited. If this total were to tick down a little more, I’ll probably add some over there as well. Either way, I think both offenses have a ton of potential here, but I’ve yet to see why the Ravens deserve to be this big of a favorite on the road in Cincinnati.
- Worst line to bet: Bengals moneyline (+110)
Teaser of the week
San Francisco 49ers -1.5/Dallas Cowboys +8.5 (-120)
Teaser record (season): 1-2, -1.40 units
All-time record: 9-7, +0.6 units, +3.1% ROI
(Photo of Joe Burrow: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
