Matchday 2 of the 2024-25 Champions League brought goals and surprises aplenty as we continue to get to know the tournament’s new format.
Big wins for Barcelona, Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund and Brest on Tuesday were followed by shock defeats for Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid as the 36-team table underwent a shake-up.
The results also meant The Athletic’s projections — powered by Opta data — saw multiple teams experience a rejig in their projected points tallies and odds to make the round of 16. Here, we look at some of the affected sides, with Matchday 3 less than three weeks away.
Brest
Projected points total before MD 1: 8 (31st in projection table)
Projected points total after MD 1: 9 (25th)
Projected points after MD 2: 12 (18th)
Brest have been one of the beneficiaries of the new Champions League format. Having been placed in Pot 4 ahead of the draw, the older system may have seen them land two or even three difficult opponents in the group stage (ask 2019-20 Slavia Prague, who were grouped alongside Barcelona, Dortmund and Inter Milan).
However, they have instead begun their debut European campaign with a 2-1 win over Sturm Graz at home and a superb 4-0 thrashing of Austrian champions Red Bull Salzburg in hostile territory. Initial projections viewed them as a bottom-six side, but they have quickly got themselves into the early knockout picture with two excellent performances.
Tougher tests await, but Brest seem to have improved their odds of reaching at least the knockout-round playoff (71 per cent probability now, up from 35 per cent before Matchday 1).
Remaining fixtures: Bayer Leverkusen (H), Sparta Prague (A), Barcelona (A), PSV (H), Shakhtar Donetsk (A), Real Madrid (H)
Bayer Leverkusen
Projected points total before MD 1: 14 (6th in projection table)
Projected points total after MD 1: 16 (5th)
Projected points after MD 2: 17 (1st)
Bayer Leverkusen are another of the seven perfect teams in the Champions League. Xabi Alonso’s side began their campaign in style, trouncing Feyenoord 4-0 in the Netherlands before beating AC Milan 1-0 on Matchday 2.
The reigning Bundesliga champions are not the favourites to win the tournament, but their impressive start has seen their projected points tally go up by three already. They had a 58 per cent chance of directly making the round of 16 after their win at Feyenoord and that number has now been boosted to 71 per cent. Their clash with Brest later this month should be a treat for any neutral observer.
Leverkusen’s Bundesliga counterparts Borussia Dortmund also deserve a mention after routing Celtic 7-1 on Matchday 2 to maintain their perfect start. Having been placed in seventh in the pre-tournament projections, they now sit second with 17 projected points and a 72 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight.
On the other hand, though, RB Leipzig have sunk from 14th before the league phase began to 28th in the latest projections after coming undone by winners in the final 10 minutes against both Atletico Madrid and 10-man Juventus. Elsewhere, Bayern Munich’s expected points fell from 16 after Matchday 1 to 14 after their 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa.
Remaining fixtures: Brest (A), Liverpool (A), Red Bull Salzburg (H), Inter Milan (H), Atletico Madrid (A), Sparta Prague (H)
Arsenal
Projected points total before MD 1: 14 (8th in projection table)
Projected points total after MD 1: 14 (9th)
Projected points after MD 2: 16 (5th)
A 0-0 draw at Atalanta was a far from ideal start for Arsenal, but any doubts over their credentials came crashing down as they cruised past Paris Saint-Germain — arguably their toughest opponents in the league stage — on Matchday 2. Their chances of finishing in the top eight (56 per cent, up from 42 per cent before Matchday 1) and winning the whole thing (nine per cent now from six before Matchday 1) both enjoyed boosts.
Opta’s latest projections suggest Arsenal could match or better the points tallies of Liverpool, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Barcelona. Home games against Shakhtar Donetsk and Dinamo Zagreb could help them improve their goal difference, which may prove crucial and aid in potentially resting players for their final league-phase game on January 29 — with Manchester City visiting the Emirates on February 1 in the league.
Remaining fixtures: Shakhtar Donetsk (H), Inter Milan (A), Sporting Lisbon (A), Monaco (H), Dinamo Zagreb (H), Girona (A)
Aston Villa
Projected points total before MD 1: 10 (22nd in projection table)
Projected points total after MD 1: 12 (16th)
Projected points after MD 2: 16 (10th)
After Newcastle United’s eventual struggles last season, eyes were on Aston Villa to see how they would adapt to the Champions League. A convincing 3-0 win over Young Boys on Matchday 1 boosted hopes and improved their chances of direct qualification into the round of 16 from 11 per cent to 19 per cent.
Few could have foreseen what followed this week, though, as another Jhon Duran stunner handed Villa a memorable 1-0 win over Bayern Munich in a replay of the 1982 European Cup final.
On the back of that result, Unai Emery’s side have favourable fixtures either side of Juventus’ visit to Villa Park in November, leaving them with only a five per cent chance of league-stage elimination.
Remaining fixtures: Bologna (H), Club Brugge (A), Juventus (H), RB Leipzig (A), Monaco (A), Celtic (H)
Real Madrid
Projected points total before MD 1: 17 (2nd in projection table)
Projected points total after MD 1: 18 (1st)
Projected points after MD 2: 16 (6th)
With something of an injury crisis and doubts over how their new-look front line will gel, Real Madrid have got off to a rocky start. Wednesday’s 1-0 loss to Lille marked the fourth instance of the team dropping points in their first 10 games and reduced their chances of retaining the Champions League trophy to 13 per cent.
However, there is an air of inevitability around Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid in the Champions League and this was also their first loss since January, ending a 36-match unbeaten run. Their projected points total is still higher than Bayern, Barcelona, Juventus, and city rivals Atletico, who were handed a 4-0 thrashing by Benfica on Matchday 2. Diego Simeone’s men now find themselves 16th in Opta’s projections with a predicted points tally of 13.
Real Madrid’s job doesn’t get much easier, though, with fixtures against three of the seven perfect teams so far (Dortmund, Liverpool, and Brest) to come. They will desperately want to avoid finishing outside the top eight with a league Madrid derby scheduled on February 9, just days before the first set of knockout-round playoffs (February 12 and 13).
Remaining fixtures: Dortmund (H), AC Milan (H), Liverpool (A), Atalanta (A), Red Bull Salzburg (H), Brest (A)
What about the others?
- All hope is not lost for Celtic just yet. Despite a 7-1 defeat to Dortmund on Matchday 2, Brendan Rodgers’ side are still projected to pick up 11 points — giving them a 62 per cent chance of making the play-off round. Dortmund were arguably their toughest opponent of the league phase, with games against struggling RB Leipzig, Dinamo Zagreb, and Young Boys to come.
- Liverpool and Juventus have both moved up rapidly thanks to perfect starts. Having began with the ninth-best projected points tally, Arne Slot’s side now sit fourth, only behind Bayer Leverkusen, Dortmund, and Manchester City, and have a 44 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight. Juventus, meanwhile, are seventh and have a 46 per cent chance of direct qualification into the round of 16. Liverpool’s toughest remaining matchups are against Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid in November, while Juventus will face Villa in November and Manchester City in December.
- Speaking of City, they remain favourites to win their second Champions League title, with a 22 per cent chance as per Opta’s latest projections. Pep Guardiola’s men eased past Slovan Bratislava 4-0 on Matchday 2 after a 0-0 draw with Inter to begin their campaign, but impressive victories for Bayer Leverkusen and Dortmund saw the Bundesliga pair narrowly overtake the 2023 Champions League winners in predicted points.
