Welcome back for another season of fantasy football speculation, using our patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then for all the last-minute managers on-the-go, I’m adding a new section — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
As I started gathering obscure data, I realized something. The shallow nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats, so please enjoy the visuals courtesy of Trumedia. In searching for a fantasy quarterback of course we need volume but also the willingness to push the ball downfield — so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth’s established, it’s on to charting EPA/Attempt and NextGen stats’ expected completion rate to complete the picture by mixing in good play and efficiency. (images below)
Before you go digging through our speculative bargain bin, make sure Sam Darnold, Justin Fields and Derek Carr are no longer available. The charts have tried to convince us all year to stream Deshaun Watson to no avail but (sigh) this time’s different. And no, Watson’s still not very good as he continues to rack up some of the most frustrating negative plays you’ve ever seen on a regular basis. Sometimes matchups force our hand, and these Browns are desperate for a win against the NFL’s worst defense by EPA. If Watson can’t get it done against Washington on Sunday, expect a front office announcement on Monday.
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of weekly waivers, I won’t repeat the usual suspects — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure popular adds Trey Sermon, Antonio Gibson, and Kareem Hunt have a home before you go deep-league dumpster diving. Last year, I proved success by pivoting away from the lowest hanging fruit in total touches. Instead, I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ballcarriers showing top-tier efficiency in terms of fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize them as a speculative add.
3 Available RBs w/+40.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (Past 3 Games)
- Trey Benson, ARI — 65.7% Touch/Snap
- Ray Davis, BUF — 64.1% Touch/Snap
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 40.9% Touch/Snap
6 Available RBs w/+0.35 Fantasy Points Per Snap (Past 3 Games)
- Ty Johnson, BUF — 0.73 FPS/Snap
- Khalil Herbert, CHI — 0.69 FPS/Snap
- Jeremy McNichols, WAS — 0.62 FPS/Snap
- Ray Davis, BUF — 0.39 FPS/Snap
- Roschon Johnson, CHI — 0.38 FPS/Snap
- Miles Sanders, CAR — 0.35 FPS/Snap
Not a great weekend for desperation RB streams if you happened to sleep through the first waiver run. My favorite play for this weekend and beyond is definitely Green Bay’s Emanuel Wilson. Not only is he attached to a top-tier offense but he may have some standalone value with MarShawn Lloyd on IR. Coach Matt LaFleur has always split backfield work to some extent. Wilson also stands to be the main benefactor of some garbage-time fantasy points on Sunday if the Packers boat-race the Rams’ leaky defense.
Bonus: Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) missed practice again for the Commanders on Thursday, vaulting Jeremy McNichols into viability. McNichols finished as a top 10 fantasy RB in PPR scoring in Week 4 with 74 total yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Wide Receivers
Like RBs, just make sure this week’s universal adds Dontayvion Wicks, Xavier Legette, and Jordan Whittington belong to a squad already. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — it’s precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So let’s see who has both run routes and earned an above average amount of looks while doing it.
9 Available WRs w/ +15 Routes Run Per Game, +16% Targets Per Route and +0.20 Fantasy Points Per Route (Last 3 Games)
- Tutu Atwell, LAR — 21.0 Rte/Gm, 23.8% TPRR, 0.53 FPS/Rte
- Tre Tucker, LV — 31.0 Rte/Gm, 18.3% TPRR, 0.44 FPS/Rte
- Jakobi Meyers, LV — 35.3 Rte/Gm, 22.6% TPRR, 0.36 FPS/Rte
- Noah Brown, WAS — 18.7 Rte/Gm, 17.9% TPRR, 0.36 FPS/Rte
- Jalen Tolbert, DAL — 36.0 Rte/Gm, 15.7% TPRR, 0.30 FPS/Rte
- Josh Palmer, LAC — 19.0 Rte/Gm, 15.8% TPRR, 0.28 FPS/Rte
- Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL — 31.0 Rte/Gm, 16.1% TPRR, 0.26 FPS/Rte
- Ja’Lynn Polk, NE — 24.3 Rte/Gm, 16.4% TPRR, 0.25 FPS/Rte
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey, DEN — 26.7 Rte/Gm, 17.5% TPRR, 0.23 FPS/Rte
News came out of Dallas on Wednesday that Brandin Cooks will miss at least one week with an infection he developed from shots he was taking to avoid MCL repair on a sore knee. Not great. It shocked me to see that the heir apparent, Jalen Tolbert, remained rostered in only 5% of Yahoo leagues. I circled Tolbert this summer as a potential second-half breakout after a strong preseason, replete with glowing reports, and it looks like a legitimate full-time opportunity in a potentially high-flying offense just presented itself. Tolbert has already outproduced Cooks on essentially identical route and target loads, so I’m fully expecting the third-year wideout to step into the lion’s share of playing time for the Cowboys.
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top adds Cole Kmet, Colby Parkinson and Tyler Conklin aren’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism. This may very well wind up as an exercise in futility, but there’s no retreat and no surrender in these fantasy streets. I’ve since incorporated high-value red zone targets to complete the trifecta, but for now only three tight ends check all three boxes.
4 TEs w/+10% Team Target Share, +6.0 Air Yards Per Target, and +1 End Zone Target
- Brenton Strange, JAX — 13.6% Team Tgt, 9.4 AY/Tar, 2 EZ Tar (Please note, Evan Engram may return Sunday)
- Kyle Pitts, ATL — 13.3% Team Tgt, 8.7 AY/Tar, 2 EZ Tar
- Tyler Conklin, NYJ — 15.4% Team Tgt, 7.6 AY/Tar, 1 EZ Tar
- Mike Gesicki, CIN — 14.7% Team Tgt, 7.4 AY/Tar, 1 EZ Tar
Top Stashes
- QB — Drake Maye, NE
- RB — Jonathon Brooks, CAR
- RB — Audric Estime, DEN
- WR — Ja’Lynn Polk, NE
- WR — Malachi Corley, NYJ
Week 5 Sunday Streaming Service (>35% Rostered per Yahoo!)
- QB — Deshaun Watson, CLE @ WAS
- RB — Jeremy McNichols WAS, vs CLE
- RB — Emanuel Wilson, GB @ LAR
- WR — Jalen Tolbert, DAL @ PIT
- WR — Ja’Lynn Polk, NE vs. MIA
- TE — Mike Gesicki, CIN vs. BAL
- DST — Raiders @ DEN
Bonus Content: Anticipating NFL Trades
Superstar WR Davante Adams appears to be on the cusp of getting moved, and it got me thinking about speculating on potential value spots created via trade. Adams is universally rostered and will be hard to acquire at a discount right now since everyone who drafted him in the top 15 is praying he winds up in Kansas City. Then I started thinking about the Chiefs’ situation and who else they may target in an attempt to replace Rashee Rice. Who’s a cagey, talented WR with great hands and good skills working underneath on a bad team that may be willing to deal him? Start asking your leaguemates about Christian Kirk — they could be seeing a sell-high opportunity from the other side of the fence.
Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for custom projections plus all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo of Jalen Tolbert: Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
