EDMONTON — Zach Hyman’s 2023-24 season represented one of the most remarkable goal-scoring breakouts in NHL history.
He was third in the league with 54 goals — an increase of 18 from his career high in the previous campaign — and became one of the unlikeliest players to ever reach the half-century club. He then scored the most goals in the playoffs, 16, as the Edmonton Oilers reached Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.
Now, what will he do for an encore?
“I don’t want to put ceilings on him because any ceiling that’s been put on him, he’s smashed through,” said Connor Brown, Hyman’s longtime teammate first in Toronto and now in Edmonton.
“He’s a guy that’s truly immersed in the day to day, competing as hard as he can, doing the best that he can, and good things seem to happen for him.”
When former Oilers GM Ken Holland signed Hyman in the summer of 2021, he pencilled him in for between 20 and 25 goals while bringing a forechecking element he thought the team lacked. Hyman slightest bested Holland’s projection in his first season in Edmonton with 27 goals. He shot past that with 36 tallies in 2022-23.
But what Hyman did last season was never in Holland’s wildest dreams. Hyman became the 11th player in NHL history to hit 50 goals at age 31 or older.
That’s what makes a repeat so difficult.
Only two of the first 10 players on that list — Alex Ovechkin and Phil Esposito — returned to that stratosphere again. Of the six players who accomplished the feat at 31, Hyman’s age last season, only Esposito did so again. He scored 61 goals the year after netting 68. Vic Hadfield, Marcel Dionne, Joe Mullen, Mario Lemieux and Joe Sakic couldn’t get back.
So, the Oilers can’t just bank on another 50-goal season from Hyman.
“To say he’s going to have the same year as he did last year, I don’t know,” Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch said, smiling. “That’s up to him and how the team plays. Things have to go well.
“I know Zach Hyman from what I saw last year. I’m expecting a similar player as I had last year.”
It’s hard to replicate that type of output.
Of all the one-time 50-goal getters since the Dead Puck Era began in 1996-97, only David Pastrnak and Brayden Point were able to get within a few goals of the half-century mark the following season.
*Crosby’s 32 goals came in 41 games.
** Malkin’s nine goals came in 31 games in a lockout-shortened season.
The most glaring drop-off is courtesy of Hyman’s linemate Connor McDavid. The Oilers captain had his league-leading 64 goals from 2022-23 halved to 32 last season.
McDavid’s decrease surely helped Hyman. McDavid assisted on 35 of Hyman’s goals as part of a 100-helper campaign. It was Hyman who cashed in repeatedly — all while doing the little things to have success.
“He just gets better and better,” Brown said. “The way that he possesses the puck is one of the best in the league — the way that he gets to the net and his strength. He’s just a phenomenal player and continues to improve and continues to work hard.
“Obviously, McDavid complements him a lot. But I really think that he complements McDavid, and that’s something that a lot of people don’t talk about nearly enough. It’s not easy to get hard into the spots that he gets to, and win the puck battles that he wins, and to keep pucks alive like he keeps pucks alive to have more opportunity for offence.”
Though Hyman scored on a resounding 18.6 percent of his shots on goal in the regular season, all but 10 of them came from the low slot or blue paint, according to NHL Edge. That’s the most efficient area from which to score.
And then there’s that chemistry with McDavid — a double-edged sword. It helped Hyman last season but could result in an uptick in goals from the Oilers captain this season, which could cut into Hyman’s total.
The same goes for Leon Draisaitl, who scored 41 times last season after surpassing 50 goals in each of the previous two years. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ output fell to 18 goals from 37. The Oilers have also added Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner. Arvidsson is a two-time 30-goal scorer. Skinner’s hit that mark six times, including 40 once. They’ll be pushing for more power-play time, albeit on the second unit.
There’s only one puck and only so many goals a team can score. But given the potential scoring upgrades and opportunities for returnees to produce more, perhaps the Oilers can be a more potent offensive team this season. They netted 292 goals, fourth in the NHL, after scoring a league-best 325 times in 2022-23.
“I have no idea (what to expect),” Hyman said. “It’s more about how our team does and playing a role with the group. I’m in a position to succeed, obviously.
“For me, it’s never been about my individual statistics. Now, scoring and producing is part of my role. I’m playing with the best player in the world, and he puts a huge amount of pressure on himself to produce — and I’m a part of that line. I have to, right? And then on the first power play, it’s the same thing.”
Hyman’s goal output could have a large variance. It wouldn’t be unthinkable for him to score 20 fewer goals — which would still be among his best seasons and better than Holland’s expectations when the Oilers courted him.
Then again, maybe that’s selling him short.
“Everyone didn’t foresee him having the year that he had,” Knoblauch said. “Who knows? Maybe he’ll surprise us all and up his totals that he had last year.
“We’re expecting him to be one of our leading goal scorers. I’m not sure if he’s going to hit the same number that he had last year. But we do expect a lot of production from him. We’ll see how that plays out.”
(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
