If you didn’t know any better while watching Topi Niemela during the Toronto Maple Leafs rookie tournament in September, it would have been easy to assume he was on the fast track to the NHL.
Niemela’s skating, efficient decision-making and skill with the puck looked a cut above the rest of the Leafs defencemen during two games against Montreal Canadiens prospects. The Leafs’ 2020 third-round pick put up five points in two games. Perhaps for a 22-year-old, that should be expected. Still, Niemela looked primed for the next step in his career after a full season in the AHL.
Come Leafs training camp days later, however, Niemela was paired with other AHL defenders. Meanwhile, recent blue line addition Cade Webber, all 6-foot-7 of him, was deployed alongside NHL defenders. Niemela played just one of the Leafs’ six preseason games and his short-term future as a Toronto Marlie seemed pre-destined.
On Friday, Niemela was cut from the Leafs and assigned to the Marlies. The team’s top defence prospect – at least on paper – barely got a sniff at the NHL roster. Drafted as a cerebral, puck-moving offensive blueliner, Niemela’s game has evolved since coming to North America. But he now feels far off management and the coaching staff’s radar.
After a disappointing fall, is it worth wondering what Niemela’s future with the Leafs will look like? The clock isn’t close to midnight on his chances to become a Leaf, but it is ticking.
“I know I got drafted four years ago. But, I don’t personally feel pressure at all,” Niemela said.
Niemela likely spending another full season in the AHL is less of an indictment of his playing ability and more indicative of an organizational shift that has left him, and multiple other prospects, on the outside looking in.
Let’s take a step back, as the Leafs’ final round of cuts makes Niemela’s draft year worth examining. The Leafs made 12 picks in 2020. That’s the most picks they’ve made in a single seven-round draft and it was tied for most among all teams in 2020.
All 31 NHL teams made at least one pick in the 2020 NHL Draft. Only three teams have not seen a single one of their picks from that draft play an NHL game: the Pittsburgh Penguins, Vancouver Canucks and Leafs. The Penguins and Canucks each had just five picks in that draft. The Leafs’ poor yield is reminiscent of their 2017 draft, when they turned seven picks into just one player, Timothy Liljegren.
An important caveat: Rodion Amirov was the Leafs’ first-round pick in 2020. He tragically died at 21.
Even still, most of their 2020 picks appear caught in an organizational philosophy shift. When teams undergo overhauls to their management and coaching staff, as the Leafs have recently, part of the future of those teams can fall by the wayside.
“I think we know what (Leafs GM Brad Treliving) likes,” former Leafs director of amateur scouting Wes Clark said at the 2024 draft when describing seventh-round pick Nathan Mayes and his 6-foot-4 frame. “Big body. So, (we) try to execute.”
A new focus on size on the blue line only heightens concerns about Niemela’s future. They are concerns that existed when he was drafted and stood 5-foot-10. He was listed in training camp as 6-feet, 181 pounds. There’s an edge to his game, but he doesn’t always play like a typical heavy defender. But just over four years ago, it felt like there could be opportunities on the Leafs roster for small-ish players. Niemela was reflective of the Kyle Dubas-led drafting. Namely, there was a focus on taking swings and betting on talent.
“We draft a certain way, and if the player is a good player and they’re tall or short, it doesn’t matter to us,” Dubas said.
But things have changed, and Niemela’s future with the Leafs is questionable because of that change. Treliving’s focus on size on the blue line may limit the chance for Niemela to show off any upside. He is now in the final season of his entry-level deal.
Recent high Leafs draft picks, including Fraser Minten and Ben Danford might not have high-end upside. But they do have pro-ready traits and size. In Treliving’s first proper draft at the helm of the Leafs this summer, most of their seven picks were in the 6-foot-2 and above range.
Contrast that with the 2020 class: Roni Hirvonen was drafted in the second round as a gutsy centre who looked ready to play on an NHL power play. He stands 5-foot-10. Veeti Miettinen, 5-foot-9, produced like very few rookie forwards did in the NCAA after he was drafted in the sixth round. He has since returned to play in Finland. Sixth-round pick Joe Miller is entering his third season at Harvard University. The crafty and smart winger is still pushing 5-foot-10.
Should we now consider prospects like Niemela long shots to make the NHL simply because of their size?
And if the Leafs don’t get any bonafide NHL games from Niemela or their 2020 draft class? They could be forced to depend on whoever may or may not be available in free agency year after year.
Throughout his first season with the Marlies, Niemela was deployed in all situations. He rarely put his teammates in a bad spot and thrived in transition. Defensively, he handled his assignments well. If anything, he might have leaned more into the defensive side of his game while sacrificing some of his offence.
But the Marlies were still impressed by his work ethic and willingness to move out of his comfort zone in the hopes of improving. There appears to be plenty in his game, including his smarts, puck moving and gap control, that look NHL-ready.
Right now, those qualities don’t seem like enough to warrant an opportunity with the Leafs. Not unless Niemela magically shoots up four inches or so overnight.
During Niemela’s exit meetings last season, the organization wanted him to add explosiveness to his game but primarily, get bigger in the offseason.
The irony here is that the Leafs could end up needing Niemela. Should injuries with the Leafs occur, they are not rich with defence prospects on the precipice of the NHL. Danford and Noah Chadwick are still a few years away from contention. Webber showed through training camp he lacks the foot speed and puck-moving in his game to warrant a look in the NHL right away.
And so will Niemela ever be able to add enough size to put him in bonafide contention for a Leafs roster spot? Or will he – and most of the Leafs 2020 draft class – fall by the wayside for something out of their control?
“If I do everything as good as I can, that’s all I can do,” Niemela said of his future. “If it’s not enough, it’s not enough. But I just want to give myself a chance.”
(Photo: David Kirouac / USA Today)
