The Chicago Cubs didn’t forget what happened last April and May. And unlike last winter, they didn’t wait around until the new year to make upgrades to their roster. By trading for right-handed reliever Eli Morgan on Wednesday — the Cubs sent outfield prospect Alfonsin Rosario to the Cleveland Guardians in return — the Cubs added some stability and certainty to a bullpen that was anything but steady early this summer.
The team ended May with a bullpen ERA of 4.61, 27th in baseball. Not surprisingly, it was its worst month, as it went 10-18 and saw its offense crater as well. The bullpen rebounded with a 3.33 ERA starting in June, the fourth best in baseball in that span. But the early struggles cost the Cubs critical wins as they once again fell short of the postseason.
The progress throughout the season led to the emergence of some quality arms. Rookie Porter Hodge is a power arm who showed he could handle high-leverage moments. A seemingly small trade in mid-May brought aboard Tyson Miller, who proved to be a critical addition. Nate Pearson arrived at the trade deadline and brought nasty stuff to a bullpen that can certainly use it. He’s still learning to harness it all but made progress during his two months with Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy.
Julian Merryweather, Rob Zastryzny, Daniel Palencia and Jack Neely will be in the bullpen mix next year, as will Hayden Wesneski and Ben Brown if they don’t find themselves in the rotation or starting at Triple A. Still, the addition of Morgan, and to a lesser degree Zastryzny, shows team president Jed Hoyer isn’t going to take chances when it comes to his bullpen.
At his end-of-season news conference, Hoyer acknowledged his failings in building his 2024 bullpen and promised to add more depth to the unit. This is the start of the process. There will be more additions in the coming months.
Morgan isn’t going to rack up the strikeouts, at least based on last season’s results, but he has consistently suppressed runs and given his team quality innings. Over the last three years, Morgan has a 3.27 ERA in 176 innings. This season, his strikeout rate dipped to 20.4 percent (after being above 25 percent the prior two seasons), but his expected stats — his exceptional 1.93 ERA is only slightly worse than the 2.51 xERA he posted — were either equal to or better than the actual results.
That is because Morgan excels at creating weak contact. For pitchers with at least 40 innings last season, Morgan was third in barrel rate (2.5 percent), fourth in hard-hit rate (28.2 percent) and sixth in average exit velocity (85.2 mph). Morgan’s changeup gets a lot of love, and even though his average fastball velocity is just 92.2 mph, it’s a quality offering along with his slider.
Morgan also has impressive command. Having spent much of his amateur career throwing in the 80s, Morgan had to work on learning how to pitch and dot it up to get noticed by scouts. He posted a 6.6 percent walk rate this season and has a 6.4 percent rate for his career. He can also be trusted to get more than three outs, something he did in 16 of his 32 appearances this past season.
At the end of the season, Hottovy mentioned strike-throwing, limiting walks and pitchability as traits this organization seeks. Morgan certainly fits the bill.
In Rosario, the Cubs lose a boom-or-bust prospect who slugged this season but struck out at a 32.2 percent rate at Low-A Myrtle Beach. Rosario has an immature approach combined with a mature body. Add that to his poor defense — he’s at best a corner outfielder — and the Cubs believed what they were giving up was worth the return. However, Rosario has tools: bat speed, exit velocity, some speed and arm strength. It’s easy to see how this move could sting later. But with no real defensive position and a huge swing-and-miss issue, the odds are stacked against it all clicking for Rosario.
According to a league source, the addition of Morgan does not indicate the end of the Cubs’ search for relievers. The same should be said about the Cubs’ catching situation after they acquired Matt Thaiss from the Los Angeles Angels for cash Wednesday. The Cubs saw an opportunity to grab Thaiss — the Angels have Logan O’Hoppe as their starter and just signed Travis d’Arnaud — at a low cost and pounced. But they will continue to look to upgrade the spot.
The Cubs’ priority remains pitching. The top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out. The Cubs have also often stayed away from pitchers with qualifying offers. That makes Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Nick Pivetta less likely than Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi and maybe even Jack Flaherty.
When it comes to their lineup, the Cubs will be opportunistic as they try to upgrade an area that stalled in the middle months of the season, but they don’t have any obvious openings. Cody Bellinger and Nico Hoerner are trade candidates. They could keep Bellinger and have plenty of versatility. But there’s also a chance to upgrade another area by trading him.
With a price tag of $32.5 million, what the Cubs can get for Bellinger remains unclear. There has been interest in Bellinger on the trade market since the summer of 2023. The value of a potential return has certainly dipped since that point when he was performing at an All-Star level.
But the reality is the teams that are likely interested in Bellinger are the ones who are in on Juan Soto. So gauging his market currently is difficult. There are other outfield options on the free-agent market, like Anthony Santander and Tyler O’Neill. But any team that values defense and is looking for a short-term solution in the outfield and upside on offense may be calling the Cubs once Soto signs.
Pitching remains the name of the game for the Cubs this winter, but with a little creativity and the right timing, they might find ways to alter their roster in other areas as well.
(Top photo of Eli Morgan: David Richard / Imagn Images)
