SAN ANTONIO — It came as a bit of a surprise when the Chicago Cubs swung a trade in late July to add third baseman Isaac Paredes. For a team that wasn’t really in contention, a buy move seemed odd. But the Cubs were also trying to position themselves to be in the playoff race in the near future. Adding Paredes solidifies what had been a position of need — third base — as the former Tampa Bay Rays All-Star is under control through the 2027 season.
But in his two-plus months with the team, Paredes looked little like the player the Cubs thought they were acquiring. In 212 plate appearances, Paredes put up an 86 wRC+ with a weak .084 ISO. He also struggled defensively, making nine errors with the Cubs compared to the six he made in over 250 more innings at third with the Rays.
But the Cubs believe that outside of one particularly bad defensive game in early September when he committed three errors, he’s fine at the position. While they’re aware of his limited range, that defensive component isn’t as important for a third baseman compared to an up-the-middle defender. They believe when the ball is in his vicinity, he’s sure-handed enough to make the play.
When it comes to his offense, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer was clear Wednesday at the general managers’ meetings that the Cubs weren’t concerned about the second-half swoon from Paredes.
“I guess I would ask, why wouldn’t it be?” Hoyer wondered when asked if he expected Paredes to return to his top offensive form. “He has a really good track record.”
From the start of the 2022 season up to the point he was traded to the Cubs, Paredes posted a 129 wRC+ with a 17.3 percent strikeout rate, 11.2 percent walk rate and .221 ISO. During that span, there were only six other players across the game who had at least 1,000 plate appearances and put up a walk rate above 10 percent, a strikeout rate below 20 percent and an ISO above .200: Freddie Freeman, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Mookie Betts, Kyle Tucker and Ketel Marte. Paredes is a high-quality player. Two and a half years probably tells us more than two months.
Isaac Paredes goes the opposite way to drive in 2! pic.twitter.com/14NX5j8GT3
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) September 1, 2024
One could argue that Paredes benefited from playing at Tropicana Field. That was a legitimate concern that was brought up at the time of the acquisition. As a pure pull hitter, Paredes was helped by Tropicana’s short fence in left field. But outside of straight down the line, Wrigley Field actually has a rather shallow left-center gap.
Some also wondered whether the wind, which blew in at an unprecedented rate this season at Wrigley, impacted Paredes. But there just weren’t that many instances of him hitting the ball in the air and seeing it die at the track. In fact, his fly-ball rate with the Cubs dropped to 36.3 percent, over 10 percentage points below the previous two-plus seasons with Tampa Bay.
One theory posited that while the ballpark may not have directly impacted him, there was a mental toll due to the consistent blowing in of the wind. Perhaps Paredes was altering his swing or his thought process at the plate when seeing the flags taut and feeling the wind blow in his face. Even the one time he hit a home run at Wrigley this season, Paredes mentioned how he was pleasantly surprised to see the ball cut through the wind and end up in the seats.
Paredes’ home-road splits in his time with the Cubs were also jarring. At Wrigley, he had a puzzling minus-2 wRC+ with just one extra-base hit while striking out 24 percent of the time and walking just 7.3 percent. On the road, he had a robust 159 wRC+ with a 14.7 percent walk rate and 12.1 percent strikeout rate with eight extra-base hits. He went from looking like a lost minor leaguer at home to a superstar on the road.
“It wasn’t as if you look at what he did with the Cubs and it was blanket negative,” Hoyer said. “On the road he was a really good player. Probably even better than the player we expected.”
The walk and strikeout rates along with the dip in fly balls suggest that perhaps Paredes was coming out of his standard approach while with the Cubs.
It’s also hard to know how a player will perform with a team following a trade. Some react like Nick Castellanos, who tore it up at the plate after the Cubs acquired him in the summer of 2019. Others look lost like Paredes, who clearly struggled to adjust to his new surroundings.
But the Cubs haven’t lost faith in Paredes. They believe they have third base, a position of need since the departure of Kris Bryant in July 2021, locked down for next season and beyond.
“I expect him to come in and play well,” Hoyer said. “He has a track record. He’s a really good hitter and covers the zone. That’s what I expect.”
(Photo: Katie Stratman / Imagn Images)
