The National League went into overtime to determine its postseason bracket, but the American League had Monday off to prepare for Tuesday’s slate of wild-card games. The Detroit Tigers shocked baseball by reaching the playoffs, but will they advance against the Houston Astros? Can the Baltimore Orioles rebound after last year’s disappointing October showing and take out the upstart Kansas City Royals? Our experts weigh in on the two AL Wild Card Series below.
Note: Playoff seeding in brackets.
Detroit Tigers (6) vs. Houston Astros (3)
| Team | Percent of votes |
|---|---|
 Detroit Tigers |
29.4%
|
 Houston Astros |
70.6%
|
Chandler Rome (Houston): The gap in postseason experience and offensive production is too wide to ignore. Tarik Skubal could render it meaningless Tuesday afternoon. So could A.J. Hinch’s “pitching chaos” in the games that follow. With slim run support, though, the task becomes more difficult. A slew of first-timers surviving tight games with such a minuscule margin for error doesn’t seem like a recipe to dethrone the closest thing this sport has to a dynasty.
Keith Law (Detroit): The Tigers get the best pitcher in the American League going on full rest, and their offense is sneaky good. Jackson Jobe could their equivalent to 2008 David Price out of the pen.
Kaitlyn McGrath (Houston): The Tigers’ late-season surge into the postseason has been a great story, but the Astros are such a proven playoff team that it’s difficult to bet against them. Potentially being without Yordan Alvarez will hurt Houston, but in a short series, its pitching staff should be able to handle the Tigers. Plus, Minute Maid Park is an intimidating park as a road team all the time, but especially in October.
Stephen Nesbitt (Detroit): Since the three-game Wild Card Series was introduced, the team that has won the first game has won each series — a perfect 8 for 8. (Only one series even went to a third game.) If this comes down to a battle of Game 1 lefties, I’m going with Skubal and the Tigers. This is not entirely sensical. 1. The Tigers were 100 OPS points worse against left-handed pitching this season than the Astros. 2. The Astros clipped Skubal for six runs in 12 2/3 innings this season; the Tigers scored only twice in six innings against Framber Valdez. But what about this Tigers season has been sensical? Plus, we run the risk of getting Old Takes Exposed if everyone makes the chalk pick. So, Tigers it is.
The Astros had one big inning against Skubal back in June, and he otherwise held them in check. Now he has a chance to set the tone in Game 1, put the Astros into elimination territory and bring their run of seven consecutive ALCS appearances to an unlikely end.
Andrew Baggarly (Houston): Not sure how they do it, but the Astros always find a way to make themselves heard in October. They are able to cut through the statistical noise and prevail in a short series. Not to trash the great season the Tigers just had — former Houston manager A.J. Hinch did a bang-up job in Detroit — but they might have drawn a bad beat with this first-round matchup. The Astros weren’t wire-to-wire winners in the AL West, but guys like José Altuve just refuse take off their jersey in October. This one’s practically in the can.
Sahadev Sharma (Detroit): Tarik Skubal, and baseball is weird.
Jayson Stark (Houston): The Tigers are a great story. But the Astros are a great team. Too much talent on one side of the field for me. It’s hard to see how the Tigers keep that lineup from scoring unless Yordan Alvarez is hurting.
Sam Blum (Houston): You really think I’m crazy enough to go against the Astros before the ALCS?
Eno Sarris (Houston): The Astros — even if Yordan Alvarez doesn’t hit — have superior depth in the rotation, the bullpen and the lineup. And they’ve got a few stars, as well.
Zack Meisel (Detroit): A.J. Hinch’s revenge? Justin Verlander’s revenge? How about Jake Rogers’ revenge? The catcher, the only part of the Tigers’ return for Verlander who still dons the Old English D, will guide Detroit’s red-hot pitching staff into the ALDS.
Katie Woo (Houston): The Tigers are baseball’s most fun story. But betting against the Astros? In October? Come on.
David O’Brien (Houston): Tigers are on a roll, but the Astros’ depth and wealth of postseason experience will win out.
Jen McCaffrey (Detroit): If any team can stop the Astros in the postseason, it’s this Tigers team that’s gone on a wild run to make it this far.
Patrick Mooney (Houston): Playoff experience matters.
Andy McCullough (Houston): The Astros are the more complete team, with pitchers capable of subduing Detroit’s lineup and an offense that figures to take advantage of a tired Tigers bullpen. Skubal could tilt Game 1 toward the Tigers, but the Astros are strong enough to overcome that deficit.
C. Trent Rosecrans (Houston): The Tigers would make for the better story, but the Astros have been here before and that postseason experience is important.
Melissa Lockard (Houston): Detroit looks like a team of destiny, but Houston’s destiny has been the ALCS for years now.
Kansas City Royals (5) vs. Baltimore Orioles (4)
| Team | Percent of votes |
|---|---|
 Kansas City Royals |
23.50%
|
 Baltimore Orioles |
76.50%
|
Sahadev Sharma (Kansas City): I can’t believe I’m saying this about the Royals, but their starting pitching will carry them through this round.
Jayson Stark (Baltimore): I feel like people are overlooking the Orioles. That’s a mistake. That lineup is healthier than it’s been in a long time. And any team that starts Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin in a short series has more than enough starting pitching to win a short series.
Sam Blum (Baltimore): In a battle of two teams that had mediocre Septembers, I’ll go with the club that’s at home, has some postseason experience and will be pitching Corbin Burnes in Game 1.
Kaitlyn McGrath (Baltimore): The Orioles were humbled last postseason, and I think the team that is one year older will take those valuable lessons into this October. The Royals were a great story this year, but their offense faded at the end. That said, if Vinnie Pasquantino can make it back, I would give the Royals a fighting chance. The Orioles had their struggles, too, but they ended the season strong and hosting the short series at Camden Yards will be a sizable advantage for them.
Andy McCullough (Kansas City): The Orioles played .500 baseball in the second half. The Royals dealt with two seven-game losing streaks in the last six weeks. Flip a coin! Kansas City is playing with house money — few prognosticators expected them to reach the postseason.
Zack Meisel (Baltimore): The Royals’ strength is their rotation, but Burnes and Eflin have been excellent lately for the Orioles. Baltimore’s lineup will rise to the occasion to set up an AL East showdown with the Yankees in the ALDS.
Stephen Nesbitt (Baltimore): I’d confidently take the combination of Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo over Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin, but it’s not the Royals rotation that scared me away. It’s the bats. Bobby Witt Jr. has gotten no help lately. The Royals’ .577 OPS in September was last in the majors.
Here’s a breakdown of everyone who took an at-bat last month, sorted by round-number OPS:
- .800: Bobby Witt
- .700: none
- .600: Salvador Perez, Michael Massey, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Isbel, Adam Frazier
- .500: Tommy Pham, Hunter Renfroe, MJ Melendez
- .400: Maikel Garcia, Garrett Hampson
- .300: Freddy Fermin, Robbie Grossman
- .200: Paul DeJong
- .100: none
- .000: Dairon Blanco
Hurry back, Vinnie Pasquantino! Neither team enters the postseason at full steam. The Orioles are 38-40 since the start of July; the Royals are 39-37. I trust the deeper lineup to find a way to win this series.
Andrew Baggarly (Kansas City): The Orioles offense lost steam in the second half and their bullpen never had much of it to begin with. It’s a tough assignment to win a three-game series on the road. But the Royals might be young and talented enough not to know better.
Chandler Rome (Baltimore): Neither of these teams played inspired ball in September, so picking the one with some modicum of momentum seems wise. Baltimore won five of its final seven games and has the one-two punch atop the rotation to counter Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo. Presuming Burnes and Eflin can control Witt, the Orioles should atone for their short-lived stay last October.
David O’Brien (Baltimore): The Orioles have sputtered some since their terrific start, but their offense is still far superior to the Royals, who were the majors’ lowest-scoring team in the last 30 days.
Jen McCaffrey (Baltimore): The Royals struggled down the stretch and that could be a good recipe for the Orioles to advance deeper in the postseason this time around.
Patrick Mooney (Baltimore): Will the White Sox get a playoff share after going 1-12 against the Royals?
Eno Sarris (Baltimore): Teams with below-average lineups don’t usually go far in the playoffs, and the Royals had the 20th-best bats for the season and the worst lineup in the last month. Gotta score to win!
C. Trent Rosecrans (Baltimore): Both teams limped to the finish line, but in the end, the Orioles are the better team.
Melissa Lockard (Baltimore): The Royals staff could give the Orioles some trouble, but playing at Camden with that lineup should ultimately give Baltimore the edge.
(Top photo of Framber Valdez: Logan Riely / Getty Images)
