AP Top 25 takeaways: If Alabama is No. 1, how far should Georgia fall in rankings?

30 September 2024Last Update :
AP Top 25 takeaways: If Alabama is No. 1, how far should Georgia fall in rankings?

Alabama’s win against Georgia may not have an enormous impact on who wins the national championship in January, but it did have an immediate impact on the AP Top 25 now. What should it have meant?

Let’s dig into my ballot after the Crimson Tide returned to No. 1 for the first time since Oct. 2, 2022 — a long drought by recent Alabama standards.

1. There was a time Saturday night when Alabama appeared to be a shoo-in for No. 1 — when it pulled ahead 28-0 in the second quarter against Georgia, to be exact. The winner of the top-four matchup between the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs had a good chance to supplant Texas atop the poll regardless, but Alabama appeared to be on the verge of a historic rout that would leave no doubt.

And then Alabama blew the lead and needed late heroics from Jalen Milroe and freshman receiver Ryan Williams to survive with a 41-34 win. Does Alabama still deserve to make the leap to No. 1 after what was almost an epic collapse?

Yes. I didn’t hesitate to vote Alabama No. 1.

The route to getting to a seven-point win was eventful, but if you had said beforehand that Alabama would score 42 points and get 491 yards of total offense from Milroe, it would seem obvious that the Crimson Tide would be No. 1. Texas has a case, but Alabama gets a boost from what’s now the best win in the country. I was one of 40 voters to tab the Crimson Tide No. 1.

AP Top 25 vs. my ballot
Team
  
AP rank
  
My rank
  
Record
  
Alabama
1
1
4-0
Texas
2
2
5-0
Tennessee
4
3
4-0
Ohio State
3
4
4-0
Georgia
5
5
3-1
Oregon
6
6
4-0
Penn State
7
7
4-0
Miami
8
8
5-0
Missouri
9
9
4-0
Clemson
15
10
3-1
Michigan
10
11
4-1
USC
11
12
3-1
BYU
17
13
5-0
Iowa State
16
14
4-0
LSU
13
15
4-1
Indiana
23
16
5-0
Kansas State
20
17
4-1
Boise State
21
18
3-1
Notre Dame
14
19
4-1
Oklahoma
19
20
4-1
UNLV
25
21
4-0
Ole Miss
12
22
4-1
Louisville
22
23
3-1
Illinois
24
24
4-1
James Madison
NR
25
4-0
Texas A&M
25
NR
4-1
Utah
18
NR
4-1

2. There have been 72 matchups of AP top-five teams in the regular season since poll expansion in 1989. The loser has fallen out of the top 10 only seven times, with the biggest tumble being Arizona from No. 4 to No. 15 after losing the 1999 Pigskin Classic to Penn State 41-7.

For a half on Saturday, Georgia looked like it was going to join that company. Instead, the Bulldogs erased a 28-point deficit and lost by a touchdown on the road to a top-five team, and thus there was no reason to drop them too far — even if they look more vulnerable than in recent years. I placed them fifth, viewing them as part of a top tier that also includes undefeated Alabama, Texas, Tennessee and Ohio State. Georgia’s close call against Kentucky doesn’t look as damaging after the Wildcats upset Ole Miss, and the blowout win against Clemson continues to look better (I have the Tigers all the way up to 10th).

The Bulldogs are No. 5 in the poll, too, appearing as high as No. 2 on one ballot and as low as No. 8 on seven ballots, per College Poll Tracker. Three spots is a pretty typical and reasonable drop for what turned into a close loss to an acclaimed team.

3. Since the AP poll began in 1936, five losers of regular-season top-five matchups have gone on to win the national title: 1936 Minnesota (lost to Northwestern), 1982 Penn State (lost to Alabama), 1993 Florida State (lost to Notre Dame), 1996 Florida (lost to Florida State) and 2011 Alabama (lost to LSU). The latter two got revenge on the teams they lost to in the postseason.

There’s still hope for Georgia, especially with the expanded Playoff granting a greater margin for error. The Bulldogs could lose at least one more time and get into the field, and it’s possible they’ll solve their problems as the season progresses. The team that showed up in the first half in Tuscaloosa looked nothing like a No. 1, but the Bulldogs of the second half did.

4. The win over Georgia was Alabama’s 39th against a team ranked in the AP top five, trailing only USC, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. Nick Saban is responsible for 24 of those, and now Kalen DeBoer has his first in Tuscaloosa and third overall. Alabama is 25-11 against top-five teams since Saban took over in 2007.

According to College Poll Archive, this is Alabama’s 141st appearance at No. 1 — 36 more than second-place Ohio State. When Saban arrived, Alabama ranked 10th with 31 appearances at No. 1.

5. For the first time: Welcome to the AP poll, UNLV!

After a tumultuous week featuring the departure of quarterback Matthew Sluka, the Rebels dominated Fresno State behind Hajj-Malik Williams to improve to 4-0 heading into a Friday night game against Syracuse. It was enough for me to put UNLV on my ballot at No. 21. It’s tied for 25th with Texas A&M in the poll.

UNLV entering the rankings means there are 19 FBS teams that have never appeared in the AP poll: Akron, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico, Old Dominion, Sam Houston, South Alabama, Texas State, UAB and UMass.

The Rebels could get a chance to notch their first Top 25 win since 2008 when they host Boise State on Oct. 25.

6. Indiana is ranked this week at No. 23, though I somewhat boldly have the Hoosiers at No. 16. Yes, they’ve played an easy schedule, but they’re 5-0 for the first time since 1967 and have gotten there in dominant fashion under new coach Curt Cignetti. Their 14-point win against Maryland on Saturday was their closest so far. Indiana ranks just 74th in all-time poll appearances, per College Poll Archive.

The last time Indiana was ranked was the 2021 preseason before it stumbled to 2-10. With Illinois hanging onto a spot at No. 24 after its loss to Penn State, this is the first AP Top 25 to include both the Hoosiers and Illini since Oct. 16, 1990 — when Virginia was No. 1.

7. The most confusing aspect of ranking teams is the Big 12, where No. 16 Iowa State and No. 17 BYU are the top teams after Utah lost 23-10 at home to Arizona. I have BYU 13th and Iowa State 14th, giving the nod to the Cougars based on the strength of their blowout win against Kansas State, which dominated Oklahoma State on Saturday.

Oklahoma State is out after back-to-back losses, while Utah stayed in at No. 18. I was one of three voters to drop the Utes entirely. Yes, the injury to Cam Rising is having an impact, but it’s hard to know when he could actually return. Utah’s win against Oklahoma State took a hit, and I don’t understand how the Utes can be ranked 18th when Arizona, which lost only to Kansas State, is unranked. I ended up just barely leaving both off for now in what should continue to be a revolving door of ranked teams in the conference.

8. Utah was one of two top-10 teams to lose at home to an unranked opponent. Earlier in the day, No. 6 Ole Miss stumbled in a 20-17 loss to Kentucky. The upset marked Kentucky’s …

  • Highest-ranked win since 2007 vs. No. 1 LSU
  • Highest-ranked road win since 1977 at No. 4 Penn State
  • Highest-ranked SEC road win since 1964 at No. 1 Ole Miss (played in Jackson)

Kentucky and Ole Miss have met only 44 times, but four of the Wildcats’ eight highest-ranked wins have been against the Rebels.

Kentucky's highest-ranked wins
Year Team Rank Score
2007
LSU
1
43-37
1964
Ole Miss
1
27-21
1950
Oklahoma
1
13-7
1977
Penn State
4
24-20
2024
Ole Miss
6
20-17
1964
Auburn
7
20-0
1969
Ole Miss
8
10-9
1955
Ole Miss
8
21-14

I had Ole Miss No. 8 last week and have been lower on the Rebels than the poll all season. That’s especially true now. Ole Miss fell just six spots to No. 12, while I dropped it to No. 22. The Rebels beat up on bad teams in their first four games — Wake Forest, the one Power 4 opponent, is 1-3 — and now their explosive offense was held in check by a Kentucky team that, yes, nearly beat Georgia, but also was blown out by South Carolina. Three voters did have Ole Miss lower than me, including one who left it off the ballot.

9. Some weeks it feels like there are not enough candidates for the Top 25. Some weeks it feels like there are too many — in this case, the Top 25 actually has 26 teams because of the UNLV/Texas A&M tie. I had three new teams on my ballot in UNLV, Boise State and, as promised after it beat Louisville, Notre Dame. I removed Utah and Oklahoma State after losses and Iowa after an idle week. I decided to keep James Madison ranked, but I also considered Arizona, Texas A&M, Rutgers, Pitt, Duke, Army and Navy. Undefeated teams with thin resumes typically make late-September ballots tricky.

10. Alabama rising to No. 1 means there have been three teams atop the poll this season — Texas and Georgia are the others. That’s already the most in a season since 2019 when LSU, Alabama and Clemson reached No. 1. There hasn’t been a season with more than three AP No. 1s since the first year of the Playoff in 2014.

The record is seven No. 1s in 1981. We’re a long way from that, but it wouldn’t be surprising if at least Ohio State gets there to make it four. After Texas is off and Alabama presumably beats Vanderbilt, the No. 1 debate will resume during a loaded mid-October slate that includes Ohio State-Oregon, Texas-Oklahoma, Texas-Georgia and Alabama-Tennessee in a two-week span.

(Top photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)