Are the Dolphins soft? The answer might be hiding in plain sight

(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Dec. 2, 2024.)

5. The Miami Dolphins have a 1-10 record in their last 11 games against teams that had winning records at kickoff. Are they soft? The answer might be hiding in plain sight.

The Dolphins’ 30-17 defeat to Green Bay at Lambeau Field reinforced annoying (to the Dolphins) narratives. This was their 12th consecutive defeat when the temperature was 40 degrees or lower. It also was their 10th defeat in their last 11 games against teams that had winning records.

The cold-weather streak isn’t as interesting because it dates to January 2017, long before Mike McDaniel became coach, and because the stretch includes only road games, including playoffs. Indianapolis and Carolina are a combined 0-15 in similarly cold road games over the same span. Tampa Bay and New Orleans are a combined 8-1 in them. Who knows why?

The Dolphins’ 1-10 record in their last 11 regular-season games against teams with winning records matters more because all occurred under McDaniel. No one wants to be known for such futility.

“This tells me they have a bit of a front runner mentality and when things get tough they don’t have it in their DNA to handle adversity as well as some of the top-tier teams,” former Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, now an analyst for Amazon’s Thursday night coverage, wrote on X. “Maybe there is a different explanation but they usually play very well against opponents that are under .500.”

The Dolphins’ 17-16 regular-season record since 2022 Week 15 includes:

• 12-5 (.706) against losing teams (6th-best)

• 4-1 (.800) against .500 teams (T-4th)

• 1-10 (.091) against winning teams (31st)

We can set aside one of the losses to a winning team (24-3 at Seattle in Week 3) because quarterback Tua Tagovailoa did not play. The 10 remaining games appear below, ranked from best to worst point differential for the Dolphins. Note that Miami was 1-1 when favored in these games, 0-7 as an underdog and 0-1 in a pick-em game against the Chiefs at a neutral site in Germany.

Season-Wk	Opponent	result	Final Margin
2023-16	Cowboys (+1.5)	W, 22-20	+2
2022-15	at Bills (-7)	L, 32-29	-3
2024-9	at Bills (-6)	L, 30-27	-3
2023-9	at Chiefs (PK)	L, 21-14	-7
2023-18	Bills (+2.5)	L, 21-14	-7
2024-13	at Packers (-3.5)	L, 30-17	-13
2023-7	at Eagles (-3)	L, 31-17	-14
2024-2	Bills (-1.5)	L, 31-10	-21
2023-4	at Bills (-3)	L, 48-20	-28
2023-17	at Ravens (-3)	L, 56-19	-37

Seven were against teams that were at least four games above .500. Six of those were on the road (including the one against Kansas City in Germany). The other 31 NFL teams have, on average, played 1.9 of these opponents on the road over the same period. That’s one key to solving the puzzle. Note, also, that five of the defeats were against Buffalo, including two when the Bills were at least four games above .500.

Fitzpatrick’s perception of the Dolphins as front-runners who struggle to handle adversity still carries weight. The Dolphins have covered the point spread just three times while posting that 1-9 record against winning teams with Tagovailoa in the lineup. They lost by 37 to Baltimore, 28 and 21 to Buffalo, 14 to Philadelphia and 13 to Green Bay. That’s concerning.

(Photo of Tua Tagovailoa: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)