The San Francisco Giants begin the offseason with a fresh perspective atop their chain of command but a familiar series of roster issues to address.
They have glaring needs in the rotation and at shortstop. They could use another power threat for the middle of the lineup. They would benefit from an upgrade at backup catcher. They could use a right-handed-hitting first baseman. And after enduring free-agent disappointment after free-agent disappointment for the past three winters, they still lack an attention-grabbing, difference-making superstar.
Their pattern over the latter stages of the Farhan Zaidi administration was to shoot for the moon (Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani) and then spread the money around as a fallback plan. There were a few successes among those expenditures (Carlos Rodón, Sean Manaea, Matt Chapman), but for the most part, filling out a roster with short-term free agents resulted in a lot of inefficient spending and a team that had trouble developing a coherent identity.
The Giants aren’t likely to repeat that pattern under first-year president of baseball operations Buster Posey and newly promoted general manager Zack Minasian, both of whom have stressed the importance of forging a solid identity within the clubhouse through player development and fundamental baseball. What should we expect from Posey’s first offseason? Probably a targeted strike for a major free agent or two. Maybe less risk aversion to trade off the major-league roster. But no matter how much money the Giants commit this winter, a major part of next season’s success will hinge on whether some of the players who began to emerge from the farm system can sustain their success or improve on it.
Major team needs
There’s no precedent in recent history that allows one to imagine the Giants contending with an average to worse pitching staff. So there’s work to be done here. The Giants received the fewest innings from starting pitchers in the major leagues even though Logan Webb threw 204 2/3 to lead the NL. Their starters ranked ninth out of 15 NL clubs with a 4.22 ERA. And their walk rate (3.39) was the fourth worst in the majors.
Some of this was to be expected when injuries compelled the Giants to pivot to youth; it wasn’t the plan to lead the NL in innings by rookie pitchers (the most by a Giants team since 1975), but that’s how it played out. Even with improvement expected from Hayden Birdsong and Kyle Harrison, the Giants need another anchor atop the rotation with Webb and Robbie Ray. With Blake Snell almost certainly headed elsewhere after opting out of his $30 million contract for next season, the Giants could try to shop at the top end of the market (Corbin Burnes, Max Fried) or perhaps even pursue a reunion with Manaea, who was dynamite down the stretch for the New York Mets.
The other major need is in the middle infield, with a preference to upgrade at shortstop and move Tyler Fitzgerald to second base. Willy Adames stands out as the top free agent, and perhaps being a fellow CAA client will give Posey an advantage in negotiations. Ha-Seong Kim, who declined his end of an $8 million option to return to the San Diego Padres, was a favorite of Giants manager Bob Melvin from their time together in San Diego. But Kim is likely to miss at least part of next season after undergoing shoulder surgery. The Giants also could turn to the trade market, especially if the Toronto Blue Jays are willing to sell low on Bo Bichette.
Free-agent roster decisions
The Giants do not have any real decisions to make when it comes to making qualifying offers to their own free agents. Snell cannot be extended one because the Padres did so last offseason. Outfielder Michael Conforto was better than the overall numbers indicated last season — his 17 home runs on the road were the most by an NL outfielder, believe it or not — but he’s likely headed elsewhere. Their other free agents are outfielder/first baseman Mark Canha, catcher Curt Casali and second baseman Thairo Estrada, the latter of whom was unceremoniously outrighted in September.
Arbitration/non-tender decisions
The Giants have four players eligible for salary arbitration. Outfielder Mike Yastrzemski is expected to receive a salary in the $9 million-$10 million range. First baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. ($4 million-$5 million) and RHPs Tyler Rogers ($5 million-$6 million) and Camilo Doval ($4.6 million) are expected to be tendered contracts.
The better question is whether the Giants will be aggressive in trading off their major-league roster, especially if the emergence of Ryan Walker in the closer role makes Doval appear a bit more expendable.
Rule 5 protection decisions
Eligible Giants players most likely to be added to the 40-man roster include RHPs Carson Seymour, Carson Ragsdale and Will Bednar. RHP Ryan Murphy is another candidate. Shortstop Aeverson Arteaga is also Rule 5-eligible but missed most of the season after undergoing surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome.
Coaching/front-office vacancies
When pitching coach Bryan Price decided to step aside after one season, the Giants replaced him from within by promoting assistant pitching coach J.P. Martinez. They could look to do the same on the hitting side after Justin Viele left for the Texas Rangers and assistant coach Pedro Guerrero interviewed for a position with the Miami Marlins. Triple-A Sacramento hitting coach Damon Minor has drawn rave reviews from players over the years, and it’s not hard to imagine the Giants elevating him to work with Pat Burrell.
The Giants also must backfill Minasian’s role as vice president of pro scouting. Posey indicated that several of the candidates from the GM search could be fit for the position. Longtime Oakland Athletics assistant GM Billy Owens was among those who interviewed with Posey and might be considered.
(Photo of Randy Rodríguez: Eakin Howard / Getty Images)
