Last month, a significant number of Minnesota Twins fans were overjoyed to learn the Pohlad family was exploring the possibility of selling the team after 40 years and three generations of ownership. As excited as those fans are, a sale is highly unlikely to be completed in time to impact the offseason, which begins this week with the start of free agency and the general managers’ meetings.
As one source with knowledge of negotiations described it a month ago, the exploration process hadn’t yet reached the top of the first inning and to expect a six-month timeline. Were the sale to go smoothly, a new owner likely wouldn’t take over until some time after Opening Day.
Teams up for sale rarely spend like crazy, preferring to show potential buyers fiscally responsible books that are profitable. What that means for the 2025 Twins remains to be seen.
Following last season’s drastic $30 million payroll cut, a team source said the Twins’ payroll is expected to be no lower than last season’s $127 million figure. While the expectation of no further cuts is a positive, it doesn’t make the job of the Twins’ front office any easier as projected arbitration increases mean Derek Falvey and company are unlikely to have much wiggle room and could face difficult decisions to free up the necessary money to fill out the roster.
Major team needs
This team’s biggest need is financial flexibility.
Despite their terrible meltdown over the final quarter of the season, the Twins are tied with the Seattle Mariners for the 12th-best odds to win the 2025 World Series at 30-to-1 at BetMGM. The Twins boast a talented roster of position players and, as a result of the injuries they sustained in 2024, a full starting rotation featuring Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack and their trio of rookies, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews. Beyond that is a bullpen that would be even stronger if Louie Varland makes the switch full time.
The biggest problem is fitting everyone under a payroll, which again could be limited to the $127 million to $130 million range. Would they trade Paddack, who will earn $7.5 million, or catcher Christian Vázquez, set to make $10 million in the final season of his contract? Could several of their key arbitration-eligible players be on the block?
Once they figure out how everyone fits, the Twins can determine what pieces they need to complete the puzzle. The only certainty is it promises to be a busy offseason for the front office.
Free agent roster decisions
For the first time in a decade, the Twins are unlikely to see Max Kepler starting in right field. With the emergence of Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach, the Twins could allow Kepler to sign with another club. Kepler is the most significant name among the Twins’ six free agents, but he’s not the one who might make the most sense to bring back.
A finalist for a Rawlings Gold Glove among American League first basemen, Carlos Santana fills a bigger position of need and, playing in his age-39 season, is unlikely to require a big payday. Though the offensive production of Santana, who turns 39 in April, fell off in September, he’s an outstanding defender and provided a number of clutch hits.
Caleb Thielbar was very inconsistent in his age-37 season, but the Twins have no clear-cut left-handed relievers, which could lead to his return.
Though Kyle Farmer was a big part of the team’s clubhouse, he’ll likely command a bigger salary than the Twins want to pay a utility player. Manuel Margot’s lackluster play is unlikely to earn him a return invitation. It is unknown if the Twins will float Anthony DeSclafani a minor-league offer as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
Arbitration/non-tender decisions
This roster is about to get expensive.
Willi Castro (this season’s most valuable player), catcher Ryan Jeffers, infielder Royce Lewis, Larnach, starting pitchers Ober and Ryan, and key relievers Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran and Jorge Alcala all are due raises as arbitration-eligible players. Brock Stewart, is too.
Michael Tonkin is the likeliest to be non-tendered. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the same fate for oft-injured reliever Justin Topa, who is due a raise to $1.3 million.
But with so many key players starting to earn big dollars, it’s very possible the Twins trade from this batch of players. Expected to earn $6.2 million, Castro is a likely target.
Rule 5 protection decisions
Aaron Gleeman did a thorough job breaking down this topic last week. Seems like the surest bets to be protected are pitcher Marco Raya and catcher/outfielder Ricardo Olivar. Powerful outfielder Kala’i Rosario is another possibility.
(Top photo: Matt Krohn / Imagn Images)
