Football sits in an odd paradox with transfers. Planning, re-planning and long-term strategy have never been as detailed nor extensive, yet the need for agility and thinking quickly on your feet has also never been greater.
Aston Villa approach every window with two overarching objectives: to augment Unai Emery’s squad and to adhere to Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR). Next year will be no different — indeed, those objectives will be in even sharper focus.
Villa are competing in the Champions League and aim to qualify for a European competition for next season too. No one knows which one, directly influencing their financial scope to spend the type of money they want.
This makes predicting how Villa intend to shape their squad tricky. Club staff cannot know their outlay for new signings next year, nor the calibre of players they will be able to attract. On the theme of squad building, having a deft touch for problem-solving remains the critical trait for recruitment figures.
Here, The Athletic takes you through Villa’s current transfer landscape…
What is their PSR position?
Despite entering into Europe’s blue-chip competition and unlocking newfound riches, Villa have found ongoing financial restrictions jarring. Co-owner Nassef Sawiris has publicly expressed his disapproval of PSR, with Villa still not yet out of the woods.
Villa are at the centre of the Premier League’s broader disquiet about how PSR is enforced. Staff believe Villa are at risk of being prevented from challenging the established ‘Big Six’ long-term because of the restrictions of PSR.
A major issue affecting Villa’s revenue being significantly inferior to not only the Premier League’s elite but also to teams lower down the table is stadium capacity. Or lack of it. Take West Ham United, who boast a stadium that holds 20,000 more spectators than Villa Park.
Consequently, there is an internal acknowledgement that PSR is still the leading concern in January and will need to be weighed up before sanctioning any investment.
What positions will they be looking at in 2025?
Senior figures accept Villa were short in some areas of the squad once the summer window shut and, owing to PSR limitations, could do little to rectify the situation. Right-back was an area they hoped to address with Matty Cash the only senior option.
There was interest in Liverpool’s Joe Gomez and talks were held with the representatives of Feyenoord’s Lutsharel Geertruida. By this stage, however, Villa had reached their financial limit for complying with PSR and Geertruida moved to RB Leipzig instead. Heading into the January transfer window, strengthening competition at right-back will be discussed among Villa staff.
Recruitment is made more difficult by Emery’s philosophy of only buying players he views as providing an upgrade. Doing this usually comes at a considerable expense and there are concerns whether Villa can sanction such deep financial investment in January given the PSR predicament.
Since Moussa Diaby’s departure this summer, Villa are a versatile attacker short in forward areas and acquiring a similar player capable of fulfilling several remits is a possibility. In either position, if the conditions of the deal are right and the player being negotiated can make a swift impact, Villa will aim to strike an agreement.
Who will they be looking to sell?
Judgements will be first made on players currently out on loan for the season. In most cases Villa hold recall clauses, meaning they can bring them back in January, either integrating them into the squad or, as is increasingly likely, finding them a different club.
This applies to youngsters Louie Barry and Tommi O’Reilly. Barry is on his second loan at Stockport County and is enjoying a remarkable breakthrough campaign. The 21-year-old leads the goalscoring charts in England’s top four divisions with 13 goals and a decision will be made on whether to find a loan at a higher level than League One, with Championship sides showing an interest.
O’Reilly, meanwhile, has struggled with consistent game time on loan at Shrewsbury Town. Internally, there is a view he is among their most technically gifted players, but the team’s general struggles have been to his detriment. Even while previous manager Paul Hurst spoke fondly of the academy graduate, O’Reilly proved a victim of being a young loanee not trusted when the man in the dugout is under pressure and in dire need of results.
Initial feedback from Hurst’s replacement, Gareth Ainsworth, has been positive, with O’Reilly capable of playing as a No 10 or winger. Nonetheless, all parties will assess over the next month if a new manager means more minutes, determining if O’Reilly stays for the rest of the season or moves elsewhere, given he has long-standing interest from other EFL sides.
Lewis Dobbin, who signed from Everton in June, faces a similar predicament. He has played just 14 per cent of overall minutes on loan at West Brom and there is a sense that Villa will likely look to recall the winger.
Leander Dendoncker is on loan at Anderlecht and is expected to remain in Belgium for the season. Anderlecht retain an option to buy the midfielder.
Samuel Iling-Junior and Enzo Barrenechea arrived from Juventus in July, under the impression they would form part of Emery’s squad this term. Gradually this changed, with Iling-Junior joining Bologna and Barrenechea moving to Valencia, both on season-long loans. Iling-Junior had interest from English clubs before joining Villa.
The club are taking a long-term approach with the pair, who are regarded as assets either to be used in the squad next year or to be sold further down the line.
Young defender Sil Swinkels received interest from League One teams in the summer but stayed in Emery’s squad, with Villa light in central defence. However, Tyrone Mings’ return from injury means Swinkels — who is well thought of and part of future plans — is available to leave on loan.
Incidentally, Swinkels’ senior debut came in September’s Carabao Cup victory against Wycombe Wanderers — the team credited with ongoing interest in the 20-year-old. Peterborough were also interested in the summer but are unlikely to sign a young centre-back in January. A Championship or League One loan is planned for the new year.
Villa were open to selling Diego Carlos earlier this year. Although circumstances and his current importance indicate he will stay in January, a potential move away will be revisited next summer.
Highly rated forward Rory Wilson is out of contract at the end of the season and has interest from European clubs, some of which want to finalise an agreement in January. The 18-year-old is currently out with an ankle issue, which has taken longer than expected to recover from and has sought external help.
As The Athletic previously outlined, Villa have proposed a series of five-year contracts to the Scotland youth international, all of which have been dismissed. Weekly salary offers had reached well into five-figures, although Villa will not meet salary expectations that are more than double the best-paid player in the academy and more than the first contracts of some members in Villa’s senior squad.
Wilson has several admirers in Europe prepared to provide a first-team pathway and a wage of more than £20,000 a week. He can sign a pre-contract with overseas teams from January onwards and those who have achieved Category 1 academy status would need to pay Villa €270,000 in compensation. This is because Wilson has been at Villa for three years, equating to €90,000 per annum.
Injury-stricken defender Kortney Hause is out of contract in the summer of 2025, having not played a game for more than two years because of a knee injury. His situation has proven complex and further setbacks delayed a hopeful return to action in January 2024. The 29-year-old has been around Bodymoor Heath in recent weeks, with the desire for a fresh start shared between all parties.
Who will make the key decisions over the two windows?
Emery and Monchi, president of football operations. Ultimately, the pair — especially Emery — have the final say in all transfers, yet are amply supported by a handful of facilitators, who share knowledge. Damian Vidagany, director of football operations, forms the club’s ‘triangle of power’ and, although he does not decide on recruitment himself, his role is to carry out the wishes of Monchi and Emery.
Other facilitators include loans manager Adam Henshaw and Bryn Davies, who was promoted from head of scouting operations to head of recruitment in November 2023.
The footballing department — from academy recruitment to the heavy Spanish contingent now at Villa — is regarded as elite within the industry and retain the autonomy to make all football-related decisions.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
