This is not the best time for the Green Bay Packers to come to town.
The Chicago Bears appear in disarray, having fired their offensive coordinator while mired in a three-game losing streak.
Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur should be giddy.
Then again, what better way for the Thomas Brown era to begin, and for the Bears to turn things around, than upsetting their rival for the first time in six years?
I think back to 2014, the season held up as peak drama in Halas Hall. Say what you will about the end of the Matt Nagy era, or the past two seasons, but they still don’t touch the end of the Phil Emery-Marc Trestman era.
That Bears team had lost 51-23 in New England, then got a bye week before heading to Lambeau Field. It was a similar, “Well, how could it be worse?” vibe. Then the Bears found another bottom in a historic, embarrassing 55-14 rout at the hands of the Packers. They were down 42-0 at halftime.
That won’t happen at Soldier Field on Sunday. But over the past four decades, the Packers haven’t been the team to let the Bears off the hook. The history shouldn’t matter when the teams meet on Sunday, but there’s a built-in confidence for anyone in the green and gold. The Bears’ longest-tenured active players, kicker Cairo Santos, cornerback Jaylon Johnson and tight end Cole Kmet, have never beat the Packers.
“It would mean a lot,” Johnson said Thursday. “We’ve been getting our ass whooped for a long time now. I don’t have a win (against Green Bay), so it would mean a lot to me personally.”
Asked later if the recent lopsidedness of the rivalry pisses him off, Johnson responded, “Yeah, it does.”
The Bears need a win. That rarely has meant much when it’s the Packers. We’ll see if that changes Sunday.
Now, on to your questions.
Could you describe what success for the remainder of the season looks like? Caleb progressing, yes. After that… – Jim B.
Williams’ progress is No. 1. I’ve used the C.J. Stroud comparison often this season. The Bears want to feel about Williams at the end of this season the way the Texans felt about Stroud at the end of last season.
It probably won’t get to that level after this current stretch, but the idea still stands. Success means knowing this team has its quarterback, finally.
Then it’s anything that helps build confidence for the 2025 Bears nucleus and beyond. For wide receiver DJ Moore, that’s getting him back in a groove and making sure that the Williams-Moore connection can be relied upon next season. The Bears should know what they have in players like Kmet, Johnson and linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, so “success” is getting growth from other players they hope to be part of the foundation.
That would include recent draft picks: cornerback Kyler Gordon, tackles Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones, and defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. It’s a little more loaded a discussion when talking about cornerback Tyrique Stevenson and safety Jaquan Brisker, for very different reasons.
Come January, if there’s a coaching change, the Bears want to know that a new coach will be inheriting quite the nucleus of players, starting with Williams. What that looks like as far as a win-loss record, I don’t know, but when I do my annual “foundational pieces” story in March, there should be more in 2025 than ’24 for the Bears to be on the right path.
I am in complete agreement with the decision on Shane Waldron, but it’s important that they figure out how to help Caleb get on track. With that in mind, it seems like the Bears have used the no-huddle offense a lot more in these last three games because it was determined that Caleb performed better in that environment. I think it turned out to be just the opposite. It feels like Caleb is basically making many of the play calls and calling the protections, but it hasn’t gone well. Do you think we will see less no-huddle offense and more of a strict “here’s the play with this checkdown” approach? I wonder if giving a rookie QB less control at this stage wouldn’t be a better way to go. – Bob A.
Williams attempted only six passes from no-huddle plays in the wins over the Rams and Jaguars and nine against Carolina, per TruMedia. That number has been higher in four of the five losses — 11 attempts against Houston and Arizona, 10 against the Patriots and 13 in Indianapolis.
Now, game flow affects that. When the Bears were trailing, they’d like to move quicker. But Williams voiced his hope for more no-huddle after the Week 3 loss to the Colts, and maybe because they got out to big leads in two of those three wins, it wasn’t necessary.
Either way, Bob, you’re on to something about the calls at the line. Williams is adept enough to make checks pre-snap, but is it too much on his plate?
“I wouldn’t say that,” quarterbacks coach Kerry Joseph said Thursday. “Caleb is very smart. We just have to help our offense to put us in a better situation. And we just got to play better collectively and we have to stay ahead of the chains.
“He’s making good decisions at the line. We have to help him. It’s, get the ball out of his hands, slow his eyes down so he sees a little better once post-snap. Before the snap, things we’ve asked him to do, he’s done a great job with it.”
To me, that’s Joseph saying that Williams is making the right calls, but the players aren’t executing post-snap — and that would probably include Williams himself. But considering how rough the offense has looked, simplifying it for Williams would help.
Now, you don’t want to cut the field down for Williams, but there does seem to be a point of emphasis this week for him to get the ball out quickly, which is something wide receivers coach Chris Beatty mentioned, as opposed to going through his progressions.
I’d expect to see more quick reads post-snap from Williams, and that might also include fewer calls pre-snap.
Do you think not having a veteran QB on the roster makes any difference to Williams’ development? That QB room is very young and all those guys are, to varying degrees, trying to figure it out as they go. The pressure on an NFL QB is different than almost any other position in sports so I would think, even at the margins, having a peer who’s been in a similar situation would help him out. – Craig B.
This came up last spring, and in a story with Bruce Feldman, one coach expressed concern that the Bears didn’t have that veteran backup for Williams.
“Caleb is going to a locker room where you’re wondering who is the vet that is gonna tell him that he is screwing up,” one quarterbacks coach said in April. “Who is the vet that will give him confidence for doing something right?”
The counter the Bears had was offensive assistant Ryan Griffin, who’s a coach but was on an NFL roster last season and has a decade of experience in the league. Without being in that room, it’s hard to know if Griffin’s impact is similar to if Williams had a veteran backup. The Bears believed it would be.
They did have Brett Rypien throughout training camp and the preseason, as chronicled on “Hard Knocks.” Had the Vikings not signed Rypien, he might’ve been on the Bears’ practice squad — at least until some other team wanted him for their 53. While I’m not ready to say that Rypien would’ve made the type of difference to prevent the Bears from this juncture, he would’ve been helpful.
Either way, as general manager Ryan Poles assesses what went wrong for Williams and the offense during this stretch, everything has to be examined, including the makeup of the quarterbacks room. They should want Tyson Bagent to be the backup, but would they have been better off with a practice-squad QB who has NFL experience?
Is it possible that Matt Eberflus’ “honor the football” mantra is negatively impacting Caleb Williams’ development? I think I’d be willing to deal with a few more interceptions in exchange for the offense looking more competent and explosive. – Matthew R.
This came up often during the week, especially when noting that Williams has zero interceptions in this three-game losing streak and the only major statistical category where the Bears have improved on offense is interception percentage, yet it’s not helping the production.
(For inquiring minds, per Stathead, no other Bears quarterback in history has started and finished three consecutive losses without throwing a pick. The closest was Brian Hoyer, on a woeful 2016 roster, but he left what would’ve been the third game with a broken arm in the second quarter).
When Williams throws it, I do think he’s taking some shots, but maybe all the sacks he’s taken during the losing streak point to a fear of throwing a pick. It’s a tricky line to straddle for the rookie quarterback. It’s good for him to not turn it over, but the Bears don’t want to limit his playmaking.
“I try to always encourage, ‘Hey, let’s be aggressive, let’s be smart,’” Joseph said. “That’s the message I’ve started from day one and I continue to deliver. Now, hey, let’s pull the trigger, let’s be smart about it, but be aggressive at the same time.”
I’m not sure the low interception rate is the best stat to reflect a quarterback who is scared to make a mistake. No one wants turnovers. But the Bears and Williams have to find a way to harness his rare arm talent the right way.
Bears-Packers ‘fun’ facts
• The Packers lead the all-time series 107-95-6. They have won 10 in a row against the Bears, tying the longest streak in the series with another Green Bay 10-win streak from 1994 to 1998.
• Lovie Smith had an 8-11 record against the Packers. Marc Trestman went 1-3, John Fox went 1-5, Nagy went 1-7 and Eberflus is 0-4.
• LaFleur is 10-0 against the Bears.
• Since Brett Favre took over as the Packers’ quarterback in 1992, the Bears are 15-50 against their rivals.
• The Bears are 53-54-2 against the Packers at home.
Game picks: Bears (+5) vs. Packers, noon CT on Fox
Kevin Fishbain: Packers 25, Bears 18
(7-2 straight up, 4-5 against the spread)
I’d expect to see an improved offense on Sunday, but it’s the defense that’s concerning going up against Packers running back Josh Jacobs without defensive tackle Andrew Billings. The coordinator change might be the spark this team needed to avoid another blowout, but there is a massive coaching disparity that cannot be ignored.
Adam Jahns: Packers 24, Bears 20
(5-4, 5-4)
I’m sure Brown will provide a boost of some sort as the Bears’ new play caller. But it might take him a week or two to figure out what he likes best for Williams, Moore, Rome Odunze and others. The defense should keep this game close as it always does, though.
Dan Pompei: Packers 26, Bears 16
(4-5, 3-6)
The Bears have given no indication they can defeat a team like the Packers. Even if this were the early October/pre-Hail Mary version of the Bears, they would be hard-pressed to hang with the Pack. If it can get uglier, it might.
Jon Greenberg: Packers 24, Bears 23
(4-5, 4-5)
Given how bad things are right now, the Bears covering the spread would be a victory in itself, right? This is me being hopefully optimistic. If anything, the Waldron firing should at least wake up the offense and get guys a little more dialed in. Perhaps Brown’s more forthright manner will work wonders in just a few days. Sure. In any event, the defense will force two takeaways and the Bears will have a late lead before Love marches the Packers down the field and Brandon McManus wins it with a field goal. The sadness continues.
Matt Schneidman (Packers beat writer): Packers 27, Bears 17
The Packers were hampered by self-inflicted wounds in the first half of the season. The bye week helps clean up some of them but not all. What should be a blowout is close in the fourth quarter, but the Packers ride Jacobs on the ground to a double-digit victory to all but end the Bears’ season.
(Top photo: Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)
