Caleb Williams will get many more chances to beat the Green Bay Packers.
Matt Eberflus, probably not.
Eberflus, the Bears’ embattled head coach, should still be employed when the Bears head up north for the season finale in the first weekend of January, but starting the day after that, it’s not looking good.
In his first crack against Green Bay, Williams, Chicago’s rookie quarterback, nearly led the Bears to an unbelievable, rarely witnessed, game-winning drive against their so-called rivals. But Eberflus made a questionable game-management decision that opened the door to a believable, oft-witnessed loss to them.
The Bears’ 20-19 loss to the Packers — their 11th straight in the series and fourth in a row this season — ended on a deflected 46-yard field goal attempt by Cairo Santos. The percentage of Chicago fans who were confident in that attempt had to be in the teens. The percentage of Chicago fans who were cursing their parents afterward for making them root for the Bears? Likely significantly higher.
Oh, what I’d do to hear my man Les Grobstein talking about this game on the overnight shift. I can hear him saying “Eber-lose” in my head.
There’s always something to nitpick after a close loss like this, and in this case, it was Eberflus’ decision to eschew a closer field goal. Santos could’ve kicked from a shorter distance, but his coach chose to burn 32 seconds from the clock after a first-down play from the Packers’ 30-yard line went for 2 yards. The coach called a timeout with 3 seconds left to try a 46-yarder on second down.
Santos’ low line-drive kick was tipped at the line of scrimmage. Could a few yards closer have made the difference? After the game, Santos just credited the Packers for getting penetration on the kick. But it wasn’t luck.
Packers LB Edgerrin Cooper on Bears K Cairo Santos : “On film, on his past games, we seen him how he was kicking it low, so we knew we had a good chance [of blocking]. … We’ve been emphasizing it so much this week. Coach Rich, he even said he’ll be upset if we ain’t get one.”
— Kalyn Kahler (@kalynkahler) November 17, 2024
Maybe a shorter field goal attempt gives Santos a slightly better angle. So why didn’t Eberflus give the Bears offense a chance to make it shorter for Santos? Well, he got scared.
“They were loading the box there,” he told reporters. “You could say you could do that for sure, maybe get a couple more yards, but you’re also going to risk fumbling and different things there. We felt where we were, if we’re at the 36 or 35, you definitely want to do that because you want to get it inside there. I felt very confident where we were at that time with the wind and where we were on the field.”
Santos stuck up for him but no one else is buying it. Perhaps, because it was too reminiscent of Marc Trestman having Robbie Gould kick a 47-yard field goal on second down to try to beat the Vikings back in 2013. Years later, Lance Briggs told me he waited for Trestman to apologize to the team for making that coaching mistake. But the apology never came.
Few people expected the Bears to win. They were technically bigger underdogs (+200) to win a home game this weekend than Mike Tyson (+180) was to win a boxing match at 58 years old.
The breaks haven’t been going the Bears’ way against the Packers since Brett Favre came to the team, and especially not since 2009 when Aaron Rodgers took over. Since Rodgers got the full-time starting nod that fall, Green Bay is 28-4 against its “rival.” In 10 straight wins leading up to Sunday, the Packers won by an average of 12.7 points and not by less than a touchdown. Most people predicted another lopsided loss, though not me. I could smell heartbreak in the air.
Meanwhile, they’re just laughing at the Bears in Green Bay.
JUST THE TIP#GBvsCHI pic.twitter.com/kyn4wLhM49
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 17, 2024
Eberflus is just the latest Chicago coach to get de-pantsed by the Packers. Since Lovie Smith was fired, the last four Bears coaches are 3-20 against Green Bay. But at least Trestman, John Fox and Matt Nagy each got one. Eberflus is running out of chances.
After three straight losses since the bye week and having to fire his offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, no one needed this win more than the head coach.
Instead, Eberflus is now 0-5 against the Packers and is 2-11 coaching in the NFC North. His desperation call to fire Waldron just nine games into his tenure looks smart, at least. The newly promoted Thomas Brown had the Bears offense humming. Relatively speaking.
.@DAndreSwift 39 yards to the house 💨
📺: #GBvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/Rv0MwIVSaa
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 17, 2024
While Williams’ touchdown slump reached four games, he looked more decisive and dangerous than he had over his previous three games, throwing for 231 yards and running for another 70. He got sacked in the first two plays of his final drive but then came back to make big throws on third-and-19 (16 yards to Rome Odunze) and fourth-and-3 (21 yards to Odunze) to give Santos a chance to win the game. Tom Brady, Fox’s gazillion-dollar analyst, was even impressed.
“I like the way they adapted today to some of the strengths of what Caleb’s shown that he can do consistently well.”@TomBrady joined our crew to recap the thrilling game between the Packers and Bears 🏈⬇️ pic.twitter.com/c5QkvbpP6K
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 17, 2024
Overall, with Brown calling the shots, the Bears went 9-for-16 on third down and 3-for-3 on fourth. In their previous three games, they were 6-for-40 on third down.
The Bears never fire coordinators (though they sometimes resign under mysterious circumstances), but the stagnant offense forced Eberflus’ hand. He’s coaching for his job here. When it comes to Eberflus’ awful record (14-30), I give him a little slack because his 3-14 first season was a tank job led by his boss, GM Ryan Poles, who traded away defensive captains Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn in-season.
But this year, as famously noted by Poles at the end of “Hard Knocks,” the Bears are built to win and Eberflus isn’t giving Poles (and his impatient bosses) many reasons to consider keeping him around. His in-game coaching decisions do more to inspire contempt than confidence, and there’s no argument that the Bears should be better than 4-6 this year.
They should’ve won this game.
Since 1940, the Bears are now 101-24-2 when they have 0 turnovers on offense and create a takeaway on defense, per @Stathead.
3 of those losses have come in the last 3 weeks.
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) November 17, 2024
But they didn’t, and in the end, all Eberflus could offer was more meaningless words of encouragement.
“I was proud of the way the guys battled,” Eberflus said. “I thought they played good complementary football today. The guys looked at each other in the eye in the locker room when we broke it down. We’re going to keep battling, keep fighting, and we’ve got a division opponent coming here next week. That’s where it is. It takes true strength and true courage, I told them. Tough times don’t last, but tough people do. That’s where it’s at right now.”
Not exactly an original quote, but the Bears, who are always stocked with tough people, have been living in tough times for most of the past two decades. Maybe one day soon Williams will lead them to happier times, but I’m now sure that Eberflus won’t be around to see it happen.
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(Photo: Ben Hsu / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
