ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Sean Payton cringed as he heard the word “confidence” once again being included as part of a question about rookie quarterback Bo Nix. The Broncos had just escaped with a 10-9 win against the New York Jets in Week 4. It was a game in which Nix, playing in rainy, wet conditions at MetLife Stadium, had thrown for minus-7 pass yards in the first half.
Nix responded by throwing a go-ahead touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton in the third quarter. When Payton was asked whether Nix had found confidence in the second half that helped him overcome the slow start, the veteran coach pushed back.
“At some point, we’ll stop with the confidence (questions),” Payton said. “This kid is confident. I should send him out to dinner with every one of you and you’ll see.”
Wednesday’s #ATLvsDEN injury report:
📰 » https://t.co/nAKdw4eGjY pic.twitter.com/mE5y2faaTk
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 13, 2024
The message was clear, even if the invitation to dine with the young quarterback never came. Nix still may have been figuring out how to navigate life in the NFL — most of his metrics during the first four games of the season were last or near last in the league — but the belief he had in himself or in his ability to do the job wasn’t something Payton or any of Denver’s other coaches or players spent time worrying about.
Now, on the heels of his best game as a pro, it’s clear the rest of Nix’s game is catching up with the intangibles. Payton likes to call the first four games of the season “a race to improve.” That batch of games for Nix — three of which were played on the road — tested the quarterback quickly. But the statistical profile of his season shows how much of a springboard those early learning experiences were for the 24-year-old quarterback.
|
Weeks
|
Comp. %
|
Yds./att.
|
TDs
|
INTs
|
Passer rating
|
EPA/dropback
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1-4
|
60.1
|
4.8
|
1
|
4
|
62.5
|
-0.3
|
|
5-10
|
66.1
|
7
|
9
|
2
|
98.1
|
0.02
|
“Anybody, when they get reps, is going to dramatically improve,” Broncos right tackle Mike McGlinchey said. “Bo is such a confident dude. When he does (make a mistake), he’s so prideful that he doesn’t want to miss it ever again. He and Sean have started to play off each other. They are figuring out how they like to call the game together — obviously, not Bo calling the game, but how Sean can call the game for him. I think his maturity shows in the confidence he operates with.”
The 98.1 passer rating for Nix since Week 5 ranks 12th in the NFL during that span and is first among all rookies. Since the start of October, Nix also ranks first among rookie quarterbacks in touchdown passes (nine), completion percentage (66.1), passing yards (1,308) and rushing touchdowns (two). He has the lowest sack rate among the group (6.5 percent) during that same stretch. He has outplayed No. 1 pick Caleb Williams of the Bears and has been on par since the first month of the season ended with Jayden Daniels of the Commanders, the odds-on favorite for the league’s Rookie of the Year award.
“I’m not really surprised with anything that kid does anymore,” Broncos tight end Adam Trautman said of Nix this week. “He’s been unbelievable under pressure. Even when we’re down, you’ve felt it all year. He has extreme poise and confidence in what we’re doing in the game plan, in his ability and in our offense’s ability. You can’t say enough good things about him. That’s how everyone feels about him in this building, and we should. He’s earned the right to that.”
Had the Broncos not suffered heartbreak at the buzzer in Sunday’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the story nationally would have been about how Nix stood toe-to-toe with two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes. It would have been about how Nix methodically pushed the Broncos down the field for the final six minutes of the game, reducing Mahomes to the role of spectator. It would have been about how a rookie quarterback, making his first-ever start at Arrowhead Stadium, led the Broncos to their first road win against the Chiefs in nearly a decade, handing the twice defending Super Bowl champions their first loss of the season.
The heartbreaking loss, though, didn’t change the reviews of Nix’s performance, which featured 215 yards, a 73.3 percent completion rate, two touchdowns and no turnovers. Much of it came from the other sideline. Mahomes approached Payton after the game and told the coach, “You got one,” referring to Nix.
“And he told Bo, ‘We’re going to have a lot of good games.’ That means something coming from him,” Payton said.
A handful of factors have contributed to Nix’s improvement. For reasons that include more patience in the pocket, improved chemistry with his receivers and a better diagnosis of the coverage disguises defenses are trying to throw at him, Nix has taken a big leap as an intermediate passer. Nix since Week 5 is completing 71.2 percent of his passes between 5 and 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which is sixth-best in the NFL. His completion rate on those throws through the first four games of the season was 37.5 percent, which ranked last out of 33 qualified passers. He’s made that improvement while throwing only two interceptions since Week 3.
“Normally, when you see a quarterback not turn the ball over, it doesn’t normally equate to more explosives or yardage or touchdowns,” McGlinchey said. “He’s still taking those risks and playing with that confidence while also being incredibly smart about where he’s putting the football. His maturity has grown so much in the last six or seven weeks. That’s why our offense is starting to gradually improve each week.”
Nix’s growth on third-down has been another key element. His passer rating of 110.4 in those situations since Week 5 is the 10th-best in the league and tops among the league’s rookies. He was 9-of-10 on third down against the Chiefs with 83 yards and two touchdowns, adding up to a 140.8 passer rating that was the best among all quarterbacks in Week 10 except Lamar Jackson’s perfect 158.3 mark against the Bengals.
Payton cautioned Wednesday that there will be “adversity” ahead for Nix. He still has more defensive looks he’ll need to download onto his quarterbacking hard drive. The coach noted a “missed read” by Nix just before halftime Sunday, seemingly referring to a first-down play when the rookie tried to fit a deep ball for Lil’Jordan Humphrey up the left seam into a tight window instead of waiting for rookie wide receiver Devaughn Vele to come open underneath.
But Payton made clear he continues to be “encouraged” by the rookie quarterback’s growth and what that can mean for Denver’s offense as it prepares to take on the Falcons on Sunday. He highlighted the third-down pass to Sutton on the final drive that allowed Denver to “control everything” in their quest to upset the Chiefs.
Bo Nix moves the sticks!
📺: #DENvsKC on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/ATwuN5Uca8— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024
The Broncos successfully winded down the clock as they moved into range for a 35-yard field goal attempt. It was blocked by Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal, who knocked down offensive lineman Alex Forsyth before swatting away Wil Lutz’s kick. The play made Forsyth a target of derision, blame that offensive guard and fellow field-goal protection unit member Quinn Meinerz called “ridiculous.” The intense criticism — which included some vile remarks toward the lineman on social media — didn’t sit well with Nix, who arrived at Oregon in 2022 during Forsyth’s last season as the school’s center.
“Nobody prepares like Alex Forsyth prepares,” Nix said Wednesday. “Nobody goes through the moments like him throughout the week and gets every set and every look he possibly can and go out there to put his team in the best possible spot. It’s the game we play. All of our mistakes are on national TV and everyone sees them. There’s a lot of negative talk when someone messes up, but I think it should be known how valuable he is to our team and how much he is respected throughout our locker room. It ticks me off that people can say those things about him and not even see how he works or how he responds or how he plays. I have no doubt Alex Forsyth is going to respond better than anybody in that situation.”
There was no doubting Nix’s confidence in his role as team leader as he delivered the support of a cherished teammate. It illustrated why he became the Broncos’ first rookie captain since Floyd Little in 1967. But it’s the way Nix has responded to his early adversity this season that has the Broncos poised to make a run for the playoffs.
Maybe that Rookie of the Year award shouldn’t be shipped to the nation’s capital just yet.
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(Top photo: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
