DALLAS — As much of the baseball world was arriving Sunday for the Winter Meetings at the Hilton Anatole near downtown Dallas, Braves general manager and president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos made it clear that the $241 million luxury tax threshold would not stop the Braves from making trades or signing free agents if he finds deals that can help them win in 2025.
The Braves are only about $25 million away from surpassing the threshold for a third consecutive year, which would trigger an increased 50 percent tax on any payroll dollars they spend above $241 million and bump their top pick in next year’s draft back 10 spots. But the Braves have needs — notably starting pitcher, set-up reliever, corner outfielder — and filling even two of those might be difficult without going over that threshold.
But that’s OK, Anthopoulos said Sunday, when he said the Braves weren’t close to making any deals but have had discussions with free agents and/or trades to fill needs. Things can move quickly at these meetings when motivated buyers and sellers get together and when agents are roaming the hotel lobby or only a text away.
“If you’re losing draft picks or all that kind of stuff, that’s where it (is an issue),” Anthopoulos said of penalties that might stop him from making a move. “Dollars still matter, of course. But it’s just — it’s a tax, right? It’s just a percentage for every dollar over. So, you’re aware of it, but it doesn’t stop you from doing anything.”
Alex Anthopoulous said if it’ll make the team better — they are in win-now mode — the #Braves won’t let potentially going over the $241M luxury tax stop stop them from making a move. Said it’s not a big deterrent, that they’re mindful of it but won’t let it dictate decisions.
— David O’Brien (@DOBrienATL) December 8, 2024
But losing draft picks is one thing, Anthopoulos said. Having your first pick bumped 10 spots isn’t nearly the same. And besides, he noted that he’s signed free agents who’d received qualifying offers in the past, which did cost a draft pick.
“I’d say that the tax and things like that, it’s just a math equation,” Anthopoulos said. “It’s just dollars spent. You have X amount of money to spend. You’ll bake it in, and that’s part of our total spend. So whether it’s the first, second or third time (over the tax threshold), obviously the tax rates go up, (and also for) first tier, second tier, third tier and so on. You just account for it.”
This would be a good spot to account for how the Braves’ needs look more pressing than they appeared a couple of months ago. Near the end of the World Series, Braves officials realized they would have to alter their original rough-draft offseason plan. And it had nothing to do with them falling short — way short — of advancing to the Fall Classic for the third consecutive year since winning the whole thing in 2021.
No, this was about the medical reports they were getting around that time on superstar right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. and top-of-the-rotation starter Spencer Strider, and a diagnosis on set-up reliever Joe Jiménez.
First, they were told by their doctors that neither Acuña, who tore his left ACL in late May and had season-ending knee surgery, nor Strider, who had internal-brace elbow surgery for a damaged UCL in April after just two starts, would be ready for Opening Day and could be out well into May. Opening Day had always seemed ambitious for Acuña and/or Strider, but not out of the question, at least not until that idea was quashed.
And then when Jiménez had knee surgery for a cartilage injury that he pitched through during the season, the reliever and the Braves learned it was a more extensive injury than anyone thought and that it would likely sideline Jiménez for most and perhaps all of 2025.
Boom, boom and boom.
The Braves suddenly had another early season void in the rotation, where they already knew there was a good chance that free agents Max Fried and 41-year-old Charlie Morton would need to be replaced. There were also shoes to fill in right field, perhaps for more than a month until Acuña is deemed ready by a staff that wants to be sure he doesn’t return too soon like he did after right ACL surgery a few years ago. The needs in the back of the bullpen are the most unexpected of those developments.
“That had a huge impact,” Anthopoulos said. “Because early in the offseason, you try to get as much clarity as you can. You know who the free agents are going to be. You don’t really know what the trade market’s going to be yet, and it’s still early. Teams are still going through staffing and so on.
“You have a general idea some guys might get moved, but you need a little more time (for that to play out). And what we didn’t want to do was lock into all these financial commitments, and then there’s a bunch of opportunities that present themselves and we can’t move on them, because we made too many commitments elsewhere. So, that absolutely had a major impact on us and we had to act accordingly.”
The Braves acted quickly, trading Jorge Soler and the $32 million he was owed over the final two years of his contract, then restructuring the contracts of pitchers Reynaldo López and lefty reliever Aaron Bummer, giving them more guaranteed money over the next couple of years in exchange for lower salary commitments in 2025.
Then, the surprise move: They declined an $8 million option on popular veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud’s contract while also non-tendering outfielder Ramón Laureano, who had been projected to get about $6 million in his final year of arbitration and who was arguably worth that if the Braves hadn’t sprung those other leaks.
Were it not for those reports on Strider, Acuña and Jiménez that all came in a span of a few days, the Braves might not have made any of those cost-saving moves listed above except for trading Soler, a designated hitter and below-average defensive player who didn’t fit a roster that already had All-Star DH Marcell Ozuna returning in 2025. They were going to trade Soler at some point this winter.
With a sudden need in the bullpen and an even larger rotation need than they had already known they might have with Fried and Morton exiting, the Braves made that series of moves in late October and November to free up about $45 million, including non-tendering the middling pitcher, Griffin Canning, they got back from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Soler in that salary-dump deal.
Atlanta will be without its best right-handed setup reliever in Jiménez, maybe all season, after losing lefty set-up man A.J. Minter to hip surgery late last season, They don’t know whether Minter, another free agent, would be ready early in 2025 even if the Braves re-sign him this winter, which they might.
There’s another 12 percent surcharge for teams that exceed the luxury tax threshold by more than $20 million, meaning the Braves would be paying a 62 percent tax for the first $20 million spent above $261 million. Considering those 50 percent and 62 percent surcharges, filling one or more of their needs internally — Anthopoulos said Grant Holmes will compete for a rotation spot and Daysbel Hernández will be considered for a set-up role — or via trade might be more appealing, even if it means moving a prospect such as pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver or shortstop Nacho Alvarez.
“The whole point of the draft is to either get players that hopefully will become major-league players or be used to trade for major-league players,” said Anthopoulos, who did not, and would not ever, mention any prospects who could potentially be traded. “So, if we’re using a mechanism that we know will yield major-league impact, that’s why we’ve done it. We’ve given up draft picks, that wouldn’t stop us at all. That’s what they’re there for.
“Sure, you’re hoping you get the next great young player. But look, we’ve traded prospects, that’s not a concern for us.”
Anthopoulos circled back to this: “It all comes back to the major-league team. If you can make your big-league team better, especially in the position we’re in where we’ve got a chance to win at this moment in time with this core, that’s always going to be the priority. That other stuff, we’re still mindful of long term and developing, but the big-league team will always be the priority, especially with where we are with this core.”
(Top photo of Alex Anthopoulos from 2022: Lucas Peltier / USA Today)
