Brewers vs. Mets 2024 Wild Card Series preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

The New York Mets might be feeling a slight case of deja vu, because after winning Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader, the Mets have a date with the Milwaukee Brewers, whom they just played this past weekend. Both teams are anchored by a dynamic shortstop and a star closer. The runaway National League Central winners will host the Mets, who played .625 ball over the past four months, with the victor moving on to face the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS.

Game times

Game 1: Mets at Brewers, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 5:32 p.m. ET, ESPN

Game 2: Mets at Brewers, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 7:38 p.m. ET, ESPN

Game 3: Mets at Brewers, Thursday, Oct. 3, 7:08 p.m. ET, ESPN (if necessary)

Pitching matchups

The rotation isn’t a strength for either of these teams, as they finished in the bottom half in baseball by any measure. That said, a couple of individual matchups are intriguing. Freddy Peralta is the closest to a dominant ace with strikeout stuff, and he’s coming off a clean 3.06 ERA-second half in which he found some consistency with his breaking balls. Aaron Civale was much better with the Brewers than the Tampa Bay Rays after tweaking his breaking ball mix, and Frankie Montas turfed his slider and cut a half run off his ERA with the Milwaukee.

Those three probably share a small advantage over Jose Quintana, Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, despite the Mets’ pristine September numbers. If the Mets pitch them to a standstill, we might remember a few adjustments they made along the way. Manaea has been much better since he dropped down to a Chris Sale armslot; he’s had a 3.59 ERA with 59 strikeouts and 12 walks in nine starts. (The only stinker being his last outing against the Brewers.) Severino has added a sinker, and this team has more pitchers with three fastballs than any other in baseball, which aligns with current trends.

In the bullpen, it’s a different story. The Brewers’ best foursome includes dominant closer Devin Williams, as well as a strong setup pairing in Trevor Megill and Joel Payamps. Edwin Díaz projects as Williams’ equal but hasn’t been pitching to that promise this season, with a big blowup in the first game of Monday’s doubleheader that could have cost the Mets the postseason. And while Jose Buttó and Phil Maton have helped New York to a good ’pen in September, park-neutral projections have the Mets, as a four-pitcher pen, about 20 points of ERA worse than the Brewers’ best four. (Milwaukee has the fourth-best bullpen in the playoffs by this measure.) Full-year numbers have these staffs as equals, but there seems to be a clear but small advantage to the Brew Crew when it comes to the team’s respective postseason staffs. — Eno Sarris

Why the Brewers will win

Since they last faced the Mets, way back on Sunday afternoon, the Brewers have stayed in Milwaukee and played no baseball games. The Mets, meanwhile, have flown from Milwaukee to Atlanta, played two games, and flown back to Milwaukee. The rush of playoff baseball can make up for some exhaustion, but clearly, from a rest and recovery standpoint, you’d rather be Milwaukee. The Brewers should handle the Mets’ Game 1 starter, Luis Severino, who has just one quality start in 10 career playoff starts, and their pesky offensive style could daze any pitching staff. Brewer hitters ranked third in the majors in walks and led all playoff teams in steals, with enough thump in the lineup to produce big innings, too — four Brewers hit at least 21 home runs, same as the Mets. But the biggest edge comes in the bullpen: Milwaukee had the best bullpen ERA of the NL playoff teams (3.11) and the Mets had the worst (4.03). — Tyler Kepner 

Why the Mets will win

Plenty of times this season, the Mets have had their backs against the wall only to come through. First baseman Pete Alonso put things well last week, when he said the story of the 2024 Mets should be their resiliency. Sorry, Grimace. Their excellent play since June all starts with Francisco Lindor. The star shortstop has recently battled a bad back, but as long as he can manage the pain, he will play. With Lindor and the red-hot Jose Iglesias, the Mets have a dynamic 1-2 punch atop the order. Beyond them, the Mets have received terrific offensive production from third baseman Mark Vientos. They could use more consistency from Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez and others, but the Mets have a deep bench and can mix and match well late in games.

Throughout the second half, and especially in September, the Mets received quality and length from their starting rotation. They earned a huge break by not having to pitch Luis Severino in Monday’s doubleheader with the Braves. Behind Severino, they have Sean Manaea plus veteran Jose Quintana. In the bullpen, Edwin Díaz and Phil Maton provide stability in the back end of games. — Will Sammon

Note: Check back later for series predictions from The Athletic’s MLB staff.

Brewers player spotlight: Devin Williams, closer

The chance comes around nearly every year for Devin Williams, but he still hasn’t seized it. Williams, Milwaukee’s airbending closer, won the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2020, but missed the playoffs with shoulder soreness. The next year, he punched a wall and broke his hand after the Brewers clinched a playoff berth, and missed that run, too. Milwaukee missed out in 2022 but returned last fall — with Williams pitching once, allowing three walks, a wild pitch, a stolen base, a double and two runs in 2/3 of an inning. Now – assuming no misfortune from the time you read this till game time — Williams should be ready to showcase his best self, which should be daunting for the Mets. After missing the season’s first four months with stress fractures in his back, Williams went 14 for 15 in save opportunities, allowing just one home run with a 1.25 ERA and 15.8 strikeouts per nine innings. — Tyler Kepner 

Mets player spotlight: Jose Iglesias, 2B

Around the league, everyone knows Iglesias for his song, “OMG.” It’s a hit. But so is his play. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns made his mark in Milwaukee by scooping up unheralded players via minor-league signings and waiver-wire deals, but Iglesias may be the best minor-league signing Stearns ever made. The Mets called up Iglesias in late May. It’s no coincidence that that’s when they started to heat up. The Mets were a terrible defensive team before Iglesias joined them; now they’re one of the league’s most competent fielding teams. With Jeff McNeil lost for the season in September, Iglesias continued to be a revelation, hitting with runners in scoring position, hitting with two strikes, hitting seemingly all the time. Between his play and leadership in the clubhouse, he’s been quite the story for New York. — Will Sammon

Tale of the Tape

Who has the edge?

TEAMS	R/G	SP ERA	RP ERA	DRS
Brewers	4.80 (6th)	4.09 (17th)	3.11 (2nd)	64 (4th)
Mets	4.75 (7th)	3.92 (13th)	3.97 (16th)	16 (15th)

Brewers top performers

	PLAYER	POS	KEY STATISTICS	WAR
Lineup	William Contreras	C	23 HR, .466 SLG, 129 OPS+	4.9
Rotation	Freddy Peralta	RHP	3.68 ERA, 200 Ks, 10.4 K/9	2.6
Bullpen	Devin Williams	RHP	1.25 ERA, 14 Saves, 341 ERA+	1.4
Fielding	Jackson Chourio	LF/RF	12 DRS, 10.7 UZR	3.3

Mets top performers

	PLAYER	POS	KEY STATISTICS	WAR
Lineup	Francisco Lindor	SS	33 HR, 29 SB, 137 OPS+	6.7
Rotation	Sean Manaea	LHP	3.47 ERA, 1.0 HR/9, 9.1 K/9	3
Bullpen	José Buttó	RHP	2.55 ERA, 155 ERA +, 79 Ks	2.2
Fielding	Francisco Lindor	SS	2 DRS, 3.5 UZR	17.5 (dWAR)

Brewers must-reads

Are the underdog, small-ball Milwaukee Brewers primed to play October spoilers?

After seven seasons in the minors, Tobias Myers has become a key part of the Brewers’ rotation

Jackson Chourio vaults into the fun, flashy NL Rookie of the Year field

Milwaukee Brewers clinch playoff spot, win NL Central

Mets must-reads

In an instant classic, Mets clinch playoff berth with win over Braves

Mets embrace a season-defining doubleheader: ‘This is what we want’

‘He’s just a superstar’: Carlos Beltrán on watching Francisco Lindor

Inside the Mets’ revival: Grimace, OMG and a turnaround no one saw coming

(Top image: Willy Adames: John Fisher / Getty Images; Francisco Lindor: Wilfredo Lee / Associated Press)