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Broberg's start with Blues, Buchnevich at center and Perunovich's future: Mailbag, part 1

28 October 2024Last Update :
Broberg's start with Blues, Buchnevich at center and Perunovich's future: Mailbag, part 1

ST. LOUIS — The St. Louis Blues are in a bit of a predicament.

They’ve shown a penchant for falling behind this season and playing catch-up hockey. In six of their nine games, they’ve trailed by two goals or more. They rallied to win two of those six, but the other four were losses.

The other part of the predicament is they’re now without No. 1 center Robert Thomas (fractured ankle) for at least another month.

However long Thomas is out, it’s going to be hard for Drew Bannister’s club to come from behind without its top offensive catalyst. The Blues did fine in their first game without Thomas, a 5-1 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs. They pulled together in the aftermath of the injury and led in their best performance of the season from start to finish.

Saturday in Montreal was more of what fans have seen this season, falling behind by two goals twice in a 5-2 loss to the Canadiens.

“For us, we weren’t willing to work early and we weren’t willing to be physical, and when you’re doing that, you’re usually chasing the game, and it’s hard to get yourself into it,” Bannister said.

Other concerns were sent to our Blues mailbag, but there was also some excitement, particularly about a new defenseman who has performed well so far.

We’ll get to all of that in part 1 today and part 2 later in the week.

Note: Some questions have been edited lightly for length and clarity.

So how good has Philip Broberg been? And how is Doug Armstrong’s offer sheet to Broberg potentially going to alter the actions of other GMs in the future? — Kent N.

He’s been incredible. As a Blues beat writer who’s been suckered into believing some players could be really good — where have you gone, Dmitrij Jaškin? — I’ve learned to pump the brakes. But in Broberg’s case, he’s playing arguably the most difficult position on the ice at a very high level, and he’s just 23 years old.

Here’s the thing about seeing more offer sheets: the situation with Broberg and Dylan Holloway was a perfect storm. The Blues had salary-cap space, Edmonton was in a jam and Armstrong was willing to take a risk and overpay Broberg. Will there be more of those situations?

What do the analytics say about Broberg’s start and what’s his ceiling in the long run? Who is a good comp for him? — Logan C.

Broberg’s analytics are good as you’d expect, but just the raw numbers paint the picture: He has seven points and he’s been on the ice for just three five-on-five goals against. The seven points are tied for ninth place among all NHL defensemen this season and three goals against are tied for the second-fewest among all defensemen (150-plus minutes). So he’s getting it done at both ends on par with the best in the game.

As far as Broberg’s comp, former Blues coach Ken Hitchcock was on 101.1 ESPN radio last week and said Jay Bouwmeester. Some of you might say Broberg has more offensive upside than Bouwmeester. Yes, but keep in mind Bouwmeester put up a lot of points earlier in his career and was more of a shutdown guy when he got to the Blues.

Fun one here: What is your final prediction for Broberg’s full-season stat line? I’ll go 82 games played, 15 goals, 67 assists, 82 points, +26 and 20:24 time on ice. — Todd L.

For context, I did the math on his current points projections for the entire season: 18 goals, 46 assists, 64 points. I’ll say 13 goals, 49 assists and 62 points. He’s currently plus-5 and averaging 19:54 TOI, so I’ll go with plus-15 and 20:30.

Will Broberg win the Norris Trophy and MVP or just the Norris Trophy? — John N.

It might be time for another mailbag topic, ha! I think Broberg could be a Norris candidate one day, but he’ll have to put up a lot more points. Unfortunately, it’s become an award that rewards high-scoring defensemen. The last three winners have been Quinn Hughes (92 points), Erik Karlsson (101) and Cale Makar (86).

Why do writers from The Athletic (besides you) dislike Jake Neighbours so much? — Mitchell P.

I get this question a lot and several of you have referenced Corey Pronman’s 2020 re-draft in which he has Neighbours at No. 28, two spots back from where he was actually drafted by the Blues.

If it were me, I’d have Neighbours near the top of Pronman’s “middle of the lineup” category, which would put him Nos. 18-20 in the 2020 draft. He does so many things well, and he’s capable of regularly playing in the top six and on the No. 1 power-play unit. I know Pronman is aware of that; it perhaps boils down to Pronman also being aware of what others have done and are capable of.

There was a lot of talk here and on the radio that Buchnevich playing center was a mistake, but he looks like the best we’ve seen him with the Blues. Were people wrong? Do you think he’d be even better on the wing? — Andy S.

In nine games this season, Buchnevich has six points (three goals, three assists). He’s started every game at center but has played on the wing with Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. I wanted to know which of Buchnevich’s points have come at center and wing (or special teams), and here’s the breakdown:

• Two of his three goals have been at center at even strength; his other goal was on the PP.

• He has one primary assist at even strength playing wing with Thomas and Kyrou; he has two secondary assists at even strength playing center between Alexandre Texier and Kyrou.

I don’t think we can say Buchenvich has been at his best because he’s at center. In 2021-22, he had 30 goals and 76 points on the wing. If the Blues had better options at No. 2 center, I think Buchnevich could be producing more offense on the wing.

At what point is the constant line switching from Blues coach Drew Bannister more of a hindrance than an aid to this team finding chemistry? — Matthew F.

When I interviewed Thomas a few weeks ago, he admitted it was hard with all of the line combinations, so you can’t dismiss the notion. But the way I see it, there are a lot of new forwards and Bannister is trying to find out where guys like Texier and Holloway fit. He’s also trying to give Zack Bolduc a chance to prove himself. So it might be tough for players who’ve had consistent linemates in the past, but the staff can’t find out what works and what doesn’t if they don’t try it.

Is there a way to see the percentage of passes made in high-danger areas? Often the Blues seem to make the extra pass even when they’re on the doorstep. Am I wrong, or are we having this conversation every year? — Noah C.

I’m not aware of a stat that illustrates whether a team passes up high-danger shots. Natural Stat Trick lists the Blues with 82 high-danger chances this season, which ranks No. 10 in the NHL. So it appears they’re taking advantage of most of their opportunities, but we can agree they’ve passed up on some like we saw in the Winnipeg Jets game. I’ve got to say, though, this is a common criticism among fans around the league, not just with the Blues.

I’m a little concerned about Oskar Sundqvist. Is the team worried about a loss of speed after another knee injury? — Chris P.

The combination of Sundqvist’s age (30) and injuries (two ACL tears and hip surgery) will take its toll, but he looked great in his first game back against the Maple Leafs. I believe he can still contribute, and he won’t have a dramatic drop-off, but at this point in his career, he may be best suited as a fourth-line winger.

Ryan Suter seems like a solid defenseman. Why did the Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars buy him out? — John S.

I chose Suter as the Blues’ biggest surprise so far in 2024-25. He’s been terrific, especially in the top pair with Colton Parayko. When Nick Leddy returns from a lower-body injury, the Blues might have to consider keeping Suter with Parayko and dropping Leddy to the third pair.

Regarding the buyouts, Suter had a massive contract with Minnesota and Wild GM Bill Guerin wanted to take the first steps toward moving on from that extremely challenging salary-cap situation. Suter had one more year left on his deal with Dallas and the Stars were set up well with Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell on the left side. There have been concerns about Suter having personality conflicts in the locker room in the past, but thus far with the Blues, he’s been a model citizen.

I can’t help but feel that dropping Leddy would be addition by subtraction, just like Torey Krug. Are there any other options to replace Leddy? What are your thoughts? — Brian K.

It’s a fair question, especially if Leddy was dropped to the third pair making $4 million with another year left on his deal. But right now, what options do the Blues have? What if Suter can’t hang in the top pair? Scott Perunovich doesn’t look like the answer right now. They could play P.O. Joseph and Matthew Kessel in the third pair and have Tyler Tucker as their seventh defenseman. But with the potential of injuries on the blue line, that seems like a pretty lean lineup for a team with playoff hopes.

Perunovich’s asset value is at an all-time low, so if he doesn’t fit, what is the next step with him? — Md2020

After Saturday’s game in Montreal, the Blues may have to put him on waivers, and assuming he clears, send him to AHL Springfield. He’s clearly lacking confidence, which is understandable since he hasn’t had much success at this level. He’s got talent but he’s been overmatched defensively, and I don’t think he’s going to get enough of a stretch in the NHL to improve through experience. He has to regain his confidence to have any chance as a pro.

How do our defenders collectively compare (point-wise) to other teams in the league? — Dana D.

According to Statmuse, entering Sunday’s games the Blues were tied for No. 10 in the league with four other teams with 20 points from their defensemen, as follows: Broberg (7), Justin Faulk (5), Parayko (5), Suter (2) and Joseph (1).

Where do you think the defensive pairings will eventually settle? — Vision F.

I’m not suggesting the Blues break up the Broberg-Faulk pairing, but if Broberg keeps this up, they may have to put him in the top pairing with Parayko. Leddy could play with Faulk, but Suter could, too. If they put Leddy in the third pair, I’m pairing him with Joseph until Kessel returns to his 2023-24 form. So here’s how I have it settling eventually:

Broberg-Parayko

Suter-Faulk

Leddy-Joseph

What’s the plan for Joel Hofer? You can’t keep a guy like that from a No. 1 role for too long, right? — Jeremy B.

I got this question a lot in the offseason, and now that Hofer is off to a great start (3-0, 2.32 goals-against average, .932 save percentage), I get it even more. The best answer I can provide is it’s a good problem to have, and it will eventually figure itself out. Jordan Binnington was brilliant in the recent win over the Maple Leafs and he’s been good on other nights, too. He’s got two years left on his contract after this year. I can’t see the Blues still limiting Hofer to 30 or so starts in the next couple of years, but I’ve been around long enough to know that these situations tend to play themselves out and the over-analysis winds up being moot.

Are the top three Blues players traded at the deadline Brandon Saad, Binnington and Leddy? — Terry H.

If the Blues are out of the playoff race, I could see Saad drawing interest. He has one more year left on his contract ($4.5 million AAV), and with the cap going up, he could make sense for a contender. As for Binnington, goalies don’t always generate the type of trade return a team would want, especially at the deadline, so I don’t know if that could be justified. With Leddy, again, he’s got a $4 million AAV next season, so unless the Blues are retaining salary, he may be hard to move.

(Top photo of Philip Broberg: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

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