Bo Nix dropped back to pass 42 times during the Broncos’ victory over the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, the most for the rookie quarterback since his debut in Seattle in Week 1. It was a somewhat curious figure given the Raiders’ middling performance against the run this season. Sean Payton explained afterward that the heavier-than-expected use of Cover 0 blitz schemes by Las Vegas complicated the run plan. “I probably should have gotten into some heavier personnel groupings,” Denver’s coach and play-caller added after the game.
“Yesterday was going to be a tough day for any of the backs,” Payton said Monday during a conference call with reporters. “It was just a heavy blitz-heavy, run-front plan by the Raiders. So quickly we had to adjust.”
The Broncos ultimately averaged just 2.9 yards per carry (63 yards on 22 attempts) during Sunday’s 29-19 win. It was Denver’s lowest output of the season, and it was a performance that provided no further clarity to a murky backfield picture as the team moves into the critical, cold-weather games ahead. Asked about Denver’s running back pecking order last week, Payton called it “the $6 million question,” and Sunday provided no clear answer.
The Broncos have had five different leading rushers in just 12 games this season: Javonte Williams (five times), Nix (three), Jaleel McLaughlin (two, including Sunday), Tyler Badie (one) and Audric Estimé (one). It’s the first time since 2010 that Denver has had that many different players pace the team in rushing during a game in the same season and just the third time it has happened for Payton in 17 seasons as a head coach. Denver has had three different top rushers in its past three games alone. It’s conceivable that receiver Marvin Mims Jr., whose role the past three weeks has included work in the backfield, could be one or two electric runs away from becoming the Broncos’ sixth player to lead the team in rushing during a game at some point.
So who will be the lead back when the Broncos host the Cleveland Browns on “Monday Night Football” next week? It’s anyone’s guess.
“I would never know going into a game,” offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said last week. “There are a handful of plays where we’re like, ‘We want Javonte on this play,’ or, ‘We want Audric.’ A lot of it is (running backs coach) Lou (Ayeni) deciding who is in on this series, who is in on this play. If guys are hitting 5-yard gains, 8-yard gains consistently, it’s easy to keep giving them the ball. Hot hand is a good way to look at it.”
Only the so-called hot hand approach hasn’t proven to be a surefire guide for the Broncos. Estimé, the rookie fifth-round pick, saw the first significant action of his career in Denver’s 16-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 10. He performed well, running the ball 14 times for 53 yards and providing an important spark on Denver’s two touchdown drives. It seemed like a precursor for a heavier workload. Instead, Estimé has run the ball only nine times in the past two games combined, which is third on the team in that span behind Williams (17) and McLaughlin (11).
On Sunday, McLaughlin saw his most significant action (eight carries, 44 yards) since Week 9, and that came after Payton hinted early in the week that Denver would find more touches for the second-year back. Williams also had eight carries (minus-2 yards). Estimé had three carries for 15 yards. Mims, meanwhile, has carried the ball eight times over the past three games. While the receiver’s new role has added “a big-play element” to Denver’s offense, as Nix said Sunday, it has also affected the overall math related to allotted rushing attempts in Denver’s backfield. Williams leads the Broncos with 10 rushing attempts per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL, and is on pace to be the lowest per-game average for a running back on a Payton-coached team since Pierre Thomas carried the ball 9.2 times per game in 2013.
“I think it’s always hard to feed three (running backs),” Payton said during preparation for the game against the Raiders, a sentiment he’s repeated often this season. “I’m used to, and it’s easy, feeding two. So we kind of do that a little bit. … So it’s a tough, but a good problem to have.”
The Broncos’ running backs have publicly expressed contentment with how the workload has been divided. Estimé said it’s incumbent on him and Denver’s other backs to “stay ready, so you don’t have to get ready.” Williams said last week that “nothing should be given,” and added that the players in his room enjoy supporting one another, no matter who sees the most action during a given week. Plus, Denver’s offense has made clear strides amid the running back shuffling. The Broncos are averaging 22 points per game, which is on pace to be their highest output since 2015 (22.1). Their 152 points since Week 7 are tied with the Chiefs for the seventh-most in the NFL during that span.
Still, the running game presents a major opportunity for improvement as the Broncos enter the season’s homestretch and then move into a future where building properly around a young franchise quarterback on a rookie contract will be paramount. Running backs who changed addresses this offseason have boosted teams across the league. Saquon Barkley in Philadelphia. Derrick Henry in Baltimore. Josh Jacobs in Green Bay. Joe Mixon in Houston. Aaron Jones in Minnesota. Generally speaking, the league’s top offenses have featured an unquestioned lead running back. Adding that kind of player, be it through free agency or a high draft pick, will have to be at least a consideration.
That’s not what the Broncos are operating with right now. Williams figures to continue leading the running backs in overall snaps based on his reliability as a pass-blocker, among other traits. Sunday marked arguably the least efficient performance of Williams’ four-year career, but he’s also responsible for Denver’s top two games in rushing yards and three of the top four. McLaughlin won’t carry the ball 20 times at any point, Lombardi said recently, but his versatility as a runner who can operate in tight spaces will continue to give him a role in the offense. The biggest question is whether Estimé can continue to earn the trust that creates a larger opportunity.
“He’s healthy, we’re excited about his future and I have to continue to find ways to get him more touches,” Payton said.
Perhaps Estimé will see a career-high in carries against the Browns. Or maybe he’ll be relegated to a bit role in a plan that more prominently features McLaughlin or Williams. When it comes to the Broncos’ running game in 2024, there’s no telling until the games unfold.
Injury updates
Broncos defensive end Zach Allen missed his first game in two seasons with the Broncos with a heel injury. Allen was seen wearing a walking boot around his right foot and leg before the game. Asked whether there was concern about Allen’s injury being long-term, Payton said, “We should be fine there.”
Payton declined to provide any further injury updates, so it’s not yet clear what kind of recovery timeline the Broncos could face with cornerback Riley Moss, who left Sunday’s game with a knee injury and didn’t return. Payton said after the game the injury was to Moss’ MCL and that the second-year player appeared to avoid serious injury.
In other injury news, the Broncos must decide by Wednesday whether to activate outside linebacker Drew Sanders to the active roster. Sanders, a second-year player who suffered an Achilles injury in the spring and has spent the season on the physically unable to perform list, had his 21-day window to return started by the team almost three weeks ago. If he’s not activated, Sanders would spend the rest of the season on the PUP list. The Broncos did not activate safety Delarrin Turner-Yell (ACL recovery) at the end of his 21-day window last week, ending his season.
The Broncos have one more week to decide whether to activate wide receiver Josh Reynolds (hand) from injured reserve. The team opened a roster spot Monday when it released tight end Greg Dulcich, who had been a healthy scratch on game days since Week 5.
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(Top photo of Jaleel McLaughlin: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images)
