(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Nov. 25, 2024.)
2. The Philadelphia Eagles have won their past seven games and seem to be gaining momentum. Can they seriously threaten the Detroit Lions in the NFC?
After watching Saquon Barkley and the Eagles dominate the Los Angeles Rams 37-20, NBC’s Cris Collinsworth declared Philadelphia a team that could win it all.
The Athletic’s playoff model agrees, with a caveat. The model sees the Lions as about twice as likely to win the Super Bowl, 21 percent to 11 percent.
How do NFL insiders see it?
“One game, head to head, yes, the Eagles could win, but if they played five games, Philly would lose at least three of them, maybe four of them,” an NFC coach whose team faced the Eagles said.
Another assistant from the NFC called the gap between the Lions and Eagles “substantial” even though a single game separates them in the conference standings.
“I don’t know if I trust Philly still,” he said. “There is something about if (Jalen) Hurts gets behind and they have to throw. Now, the defensive turnaround has been enormous for them.”
This was not a consensus view.
“I don’t think the Eagles are far behind because, with Saquon Barkley, they can run it on anybody,” an NFC exec said. “That would be a really good game. I don’t think the gap is as big as some think it is. Vic Fangio’s defense can be a little tricky, but I think they are buying in. They seem to be getting it, making calls, making adjustments.”
The Lions, Eagles and Packers are the only teams ranked among the NFL’s top 10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball, led by Detroit (second on offense, third on defense), per TruMedia.
Two execs thought Green Bay was the NFC team most likely to threaten the Lions or Eagles.
“I like Jordan Love,” one of them said. “Something makes him short-circuit still, and that is just a growing pain you are going to have to live with. It’s like some of the stuff Josh Allen went with early on.”
The second exec questioned Minnesota because of Sam Darnold.
“I don’t see anyone else in Detroit’s category,” he said. “I don’t trust Darnold. I would say Green Bay because of their overall talent, and because I trust Matt LaFleur and I trust their playoff performance last year.”
The table below stacks all NFC teams by percent chance of reaching the playoffs, according to the model.
| NFC Team | Playoffs | Win Division | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|
|
>99%
|
84%
|
21%
|
|
|
>99%
|
97%
|
11%
|
|
|
98%
|
14%
|
5%
|
|
|
93%
|
3%
|
4%
|
|
|
83%
|
79%
|
3%
|
|
|
73%
|
3%
|
1%
|
|
|
54%
|
51%
|
2%
|
|
|
37%
|
19%
|
<1%
|
|
|
23%
|
22%
|
<1%
|
|
|
23%
|
19%
|
<1%
|
|
|
11%
|
8%
|
<1%
|
|
|
4%
|
1%
|
<1%
|
|
|
<1%
|
<1%
|
<1%
|
|
|
<1%
|
<1%
|
<1%
|
|
|
<1%
|
<1%
|
<1%
|
|
|
<1%
|
<1%
|
<1%
|
(Photo of Saquon Barkley, right, and Kenneth Gainwell: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)
