Without a single probable top-six forward or top-four defender in their lineup on Monday night, the Vancouver Canucks nonetheless pushed a star-studded, Stanley Cup favourite Edmonton Oilers side to the shootout before falling 3-2 in their penultimate preseason test.
For every single Canucks hopeful in the lineup Monday night, holding their own against a superior lineup is something to take pride in. It’s the preseason and everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but that contest should take nothing away from Monday’s result as a standalone accomplishment.
Closing out a condensed five-games-in-seven-days stretch of its preseason, Vancouver now has one final dress rehearsal before final cuts — a final exhibition game at home on Monday against Edmonton. That lineup will likely look much more NHL-level than what Vancouver iced in Alberta and Seattle on Monday and this past weekend.
For coaochRick Tocchet and Canucks management, some final-cut decisions loom. These decisions will be shaped by a variety of considerations above and beyond what we’ve seen at training camp and throughout the first week of preseason action, with the club’s desire to avoid utilizing long-term injured reserve (LTIR) an especially significant factor. This is a roster that’s felt relatively set from the outset of training camp and so it remains as the preseason winds down, although Aatu Räty’s preseason performance has certainly added a wrinkle worth unpacking.
Based on what we’ve learned over the past week and the cap math involved, let’s share one final opening night 23-man roster projection as we enter the final week of preseason action.
Left wing
Locks: Jake DeBrusk, Nils Höglander, Danton Heinen
On the bubble: Phillip Di Giuseppe
Outside, looking in: Arshdeep Bains
Injured reserve: Dakota Joshua
We know with a high degree of confidence that marquee free-agent signings Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen will be on the roster. Young 20-goal scorer Nils Höglander has been one of Vancouver’s best players throughout training camp and the preseason and will likewise be in the opening night lineup and potentially given an opportunity in the top six.
It’s probable at this point that Vancouver will open the season with just three left-handed wingers, although Phil Di Giuseppe has had a strong performance throughout camp and in the preseason. Given the obvious trust factor Tocchet has with Di Giuseppe, he can never be entirely ruled out, but one can safely assume if the club is intent on avoiding injured reserve it may prefer to keep a 12th forward capable of playing centre.
Arshdeep Bains has added a step and performed solidly throughout the preseason process, including at the Penticton Young Stars tournament, but seems most likely to open the season in the AHL. Bains’ waiver-exempt status and the incoming depth on the wing presented Bains with a numbers game that he hasn’t seemed able to overcome at camp and in preseason.
Dakota Joshua remains without a timeline to return to action for now. We should assume he’ll open the season on LTI, depending on how Vancouver plans to handle its in-season cap at the outset. If the Canucks are intent on avoiding LTI in setting their opening night roster, they probably carry only 12 forwards with significant knock-on effects for the left-wing roster battles.
Centre
Locks: J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, Pius Suter, Teddy Blueger
On the bubble: Aatu Räty, Nils Åman
Outside, looking in: Max Sasson, Ty Mueller, Nathan Smith
We know J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and Teddy Blueger are locked-in centremen for the Canucks to open the season. Pius Suter is a lock to be on the team, although it’s possible he could open the year on the wing, depending on how Tocchet and company opt to set their opening night roster.
The key remaining question surrounds Räty and Nils Åman. Räty has emerged as the most interesting Canucks storyline at training camp. The 21-year-old forward, who ended last season on a tear in the AHL while playing the wing, has been a standout at training camp and in the preseason. His faceoff-winning ability in particular has stood out, as his switchy faceoff move on weak-side draws appears to offer an answer to the lack-of-right-handed-centremen question. Through his three preseason performances, Räty is the only Canucks centre above 50 percent in the circle.
Räty’s roster spot would have to come at the expense of Åman. It would also, perhaps, push Suter over to the wing where he excelled down the stretch last season and in the playoffs.
Not to be outdone, it’s worth noting Åman won eight of his 13 faceoffs on Monday night in Edmonton, making a strong final push to be considered as the 12th forward on opening night.
And as well as Räty has performed throughout the preseason, it’s also worth noting Åman holds a variety of significant advantages in this particular roster battle.
First off, the Canucks are comfortable playing Åman on the wing, where they seem to want Räty to continue to develop at pivot.
Secondly, Räty’s cap hit comes in just over $10K more than Åman’s. If the Canucks were to utilize LTI, that would favour Räty since his cap hit would help them get closer to the upper limit to maximize their capture. If they avoid utilizing LTI in setting their opening night roster and that is their preference, that would favour Åman since carrying his more affordable contract would help them toll slightly more cap space daily.
Finally, where Räty is waiver-exempt and can freely be sent down to the AHL, Åman would require waivers and — given his age, height, penalty-killing prowess and positional versatility — would be a strong candidate to get claimed by a rival club.
If Räty has won a spot outright, the Canucks will probably make their decisions accordingly, but keeping Åman for opening night would help protect their centre depth for the long term, among a few other marginal advantages.
Right wing
Locks: Brock Boeser, Conor Garland, Kiefer Sherwood
On the bubble: Daniel Sprong
Outside, looking in: Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Linus Karlsson
Brock Boeser and Conor Garland are key right-handed wingers for Vancouver and will be in the opening night lineup. Kiefer Sherwood is probably the favourite to open the season in a top-six role at this point, perhaps on a line with Pettersson and DeBrusk, and in any event, will make the team and play a major depth role to open the year.
Daniel Sprong has been one of Vancouver’s best wingers throughout the preseason and clearly offers something unique with his heat-check-style offensive game. His contract is only for one year and is affordable enough that his cap hit could be buried in the AHL without consequence, so we’ll count him as on the bubble for now, but he would seem to have the inside track as the preseason winds down.
Jonathan Lekkerimäki has impressed throughout the preseason, but his cap hit is relatively expensive — coming in at over $900,000 — which isn’t ideal if the Canucks want to both avoid LTI and carry an extra defender. He’s also waiver-exempt and could clearly benefit by opening his first North American professional season playing a major role down in Abbotsford instead of dealing with the pressure of playing NHL-level hockey right off the bat.
Linus Karlsson has been solid throughout the preseason and offers some elements that the Canucks could utilize — his work at the net front on the power play and overall size profile are things the Canucks need in the lineup — but it seems likely he’ll be lost in the numbers game at this point, at least to open the campaign.
Left defence
Locks: Quinn Hughes, Carson Soucy, Derek Forbort
Outside, looking in: Kirill Kudryavtsev, Akito Hirose, Elias Pettersson, Christian Wolanin
There are no real surprises on the left side of the Canucks defence corps. Team captain and reigning Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes is going to play massive minutes for Vancouver this upcoming season, while Carson Soucy and incoming free agent Derek Forbort will flesh out the club’s left-side depth to open the campaign.
Kirill Kudryavtsev was a standout at training camp and in exhibition play, and probably put himself on the radar to be the first man up in the event of injury with his NHL-level details and all-around game.
Akito Hirose seems to have fallen down the depth chart, and on a one-way NHL contract, his name is worth monitoring as a trade consideration, especially given GM Patrik Allvin’s track record of moving on from players on one-way deals (Jack Studnicka and Jack Rathbone, in particular) when they fall out of the club’s NHL plans.
Elias Pettersson has real upside and showed improvement throughout the exhibition schedule. The talented young defender, however, looks like he’d benefit most from gaining professional experience in the AHL to begin his North American professional career.
Christian Wolanin is an elite AHL defender and could hold down credible third-pair minutes for Vancouver at the NHL level in a pinch. We’ll leave the preseason, however, wondering if he’s done enough to hold off Kudryavtsev on the depth chart entering the year.
Right defence
Locks: Filip Hronek, Tyler Myers, Vincent Desharnais
On the Bubble: Noah Juulsen, Mark Friedman
Outside, looking in: Christian Felton
Injured reserve: Tucker Poolman, Cole McWard
We know Filip Hronek, Tyler Myers and Vincent Desharnais are the Canucks’ first-choice right-handed defenders to open the season. We know too that Tucker Poolman will open the season on injured reserve or LTI depending on how the club sets its opening night lineup.
Christian Felton had some solid moments at training camp and in exhibition play but is poised to open the season in the AHL.
Beyond that, the rest of the right side is something of a question mark relative to Vancouver’s other position groups.
The uncertainty begins with Cole McWard, who was announced as week to week when training camp opened and has yet to play an exhibition game. The young right-handed defender underwent a surgical procedure late in the offseason and his status is worth monitoring closely this week. If McWard is unavailable to open the campaign, he can’t be sent down and his cap hit will have to be accounted for somewhere, which could complicate Vancouver’s preferred plan to avoid utilizing LTI to open the year.
If we assume McWard receives a clear bill of health this week and that the Canucks can avoid LTI, they’re likely to open the year with just 21 players on their roster (plus Poolman, Joshua and Thatcher Demko on injured reserve). That would mean Vancouver will only be able to have one depth player on its roster for opening night.
What does that mean for Noah Juulsen, an ace penalty killer who fits the template of what Tocchet and company appear to want from their blueliners, and Mark Friedman?
If the Canucks are going to avoid LTI, they’ll have to decide between Juulsen and Friedman for cap math reasons. The other will have to be cut and exposed on the waiver wire before being reassigned to Abbotsford.
In a vacuum, the Canucks might prefer Juulsen for his physicality and penalty-killing utility. In a world, however, where you can only have one depth player, there’s some real value in keeping a versatile player like Friedman given his ability to play the wing, the left side and the right side ably.
This is shaping up to be one of the toughest decisions facing Canucks management and coaches entering the final week of exhibition play.
Goaltenders
Locks: Kevin Lankinen, Artūrs Šilovs
Outside, looking in: Nikita Tolopilo, Jiří Patera
Injured reserve: Thatcher Demko
Demko remains out indefinitely and that’s the guiding fact that will determine the Canucks’ plan in net.
For now, assuming Demko opens the season on injured reserve, the Canucks will enter the campaign with Kevin Lankinen and Artūrs Šilovs as their goaltending platoon at the NHL level. Šilovs seems likely to get the first shot at carrying the starter’s baton, but as Lankinen proved with a stellar outing in Edmonton on Monday night, he’s a credible option to boost Vancouver’s depth between the pipes.
When Demko returns, the Canucks’ preference is to maintain three goaltenders on their 23-man roster, which is somewhat unconventional but could be a weapon given the rest options it would open up for their netminders.
Nikita Tolopilo and Jiří Patera seem set to be a solid goaltending tandem at the AHL level. After a rough camp performance, Patera performed well in limited run during the preseason. Tolopilo was rarely used in the preseason but was a standout at Young Stars and training camp.
The Athletic’s Canucks 23-man roster projection entering final week of preseason:
Forwards: Jake DeBrusk, Nils Höglander, Danton Heinen, J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, Pius Suter, Teddy Blueger, Aatu Räty, Brock Boeser, Conor Garland, Kiefer Sherwood, Daniel Sprong
Defense: Quinn Hughes, Carson Soucy, Derek Forbort, Filip Hronek, Tyler Myers, Vincent Desharnais, Noah Juulsen
Goaltenders: Kevin Lankinen, Artūrs Šilovs
Injured reserve: Thatcher Demko, Dakota Joshua, Tucker Poolman
(Top photo: Sergei Belski / Imagn Images)
