We’ve reached the halfway point of the offseason and things are starting to rumble in the National League Central.
The Milwaukee Brewers traded closer Devin Williams to the Yankees and bid farewell to Willy Adames, who signed with the San Francisco Giants. The Chicago Cubs landed star Kyle Tucker and traded Cody Bellinger. The Cincinnati Reds swapped Jonathan India for Brady Singer.
And then there are the St. Louis Cardinals, who have worked behind the scenes to revamp their player development system but remain relatively stagnant regarding actual roster moves.
The biggest question for St. Louis is if the team will trade Nolan Arenado. Unsurprisingly, many reader questions involved Arenado’s future and how the Cardinals’ impending decision on their third baseman will impact the rest of the offseason.
Let’s get to it.
What is the update on Nolan Arenado? Do you think the market is waiting on Alex Bregman’s decision before they do anything with Arenado? And what is a realistic package that the Cards could receive for Arenado? — Lucas T.
Would the Cardinals pay some of Arenado’s deal to get better prospects? — Eric P.
The Houston Astros are serious contenders for Arenado. The Los Angeles Dodgers are not. The Boston Red Sox and Yankees (to an extent) continue to check in with the Cardinals, but it’s believed both organizations have higher roster priorities before pivoting to a potential Arenado deal. For example, even after acquiring Garrett Crochet, the Red Sox are still looking to add to their rotation. This takes precedence over other needs, such as adding a right-handed bat like Arenado.
The Cardinals are open to trading Arenado, who is owed $74 million over the next three years, because they want to get payroll down. That is the primary reason president of baseball operations John Mozeliak approached Arenado about exploring a trade at the end of the season.
“From a financial standpoint, we’re trying to move our payroll,” Mozelaik explained at the Winter Meetings. “There are certainly other ways we can do this, but (moving Arenado) would be a big help. It’s mostly financial, but it also creates runway for someone else.”
In short: The club may dilute a return because they are relatively unwilling to eat some of Arenado’s contract. Taking on a majority of that money owed would counteract the point of the trade.
It remains in the interest of both parties to trade Arenado. But as the eight-time All-Star approaches his age-34 season, he knows this will likely be the last time he will have a say in where he lands. He has been vocal about playing for a contender throughout his career. That sentiment hasn’t changed.
“(Arenado wants) a team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career,” agent Joel Wolfe said during the Winter Meetings. “He wants a team that has the throttle down — not saying that the Cardinals don’t — that he believes he can jump right in, and they’re going to win right now.”
While the Cardinals would surely prefer to trade Arenado sooner than later — as moving him would allow them to focus on other areas of the team — Arenado is not in a position where he needs to rush into a decision. There is also no guarantee he will be traded, though the likelihood he remains in St. Louis dwindles each week. My best guess is that this process could continue to draw out over the next few weeks (much to Mozeliak’s dismay) but I still believe that come spring training Arenado will be in a different uniform.
There’s a lot of talk about Nolan Arenado being traded to open up at-bats for younger players. However, we’ve heard little about potential trades from the rotation and the Cardinals have four veteran starters. Are there plans to trade from the rotation as of now, or is it possible someone like Steven Matz is solely considered a bullpen arm next season? — Austin N.
Besides a potential Arenado trade, do you see the Cardinals making a significant move to add to the roster, or is this the roster we’ll see when players report to spring? — Dennis K.
The Cardinals will continue to see what Matz’s market is. Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas have full no-trade clauses, and the club would prefer to keep Erick Fedde until at least the trade deadline. However, if the Cardinals are unable to trade Arenado, they will most likely be forced to move a starting pitcher or two to keep payroll down.
I think the position-playing roster is more or less set, but I wouldn’t rule out a late offseason addition — most likely pitching — through free agency. Mozeliak hinted at that possibility during the Winter Meetings.
“There might be something that can add to support to what we’re trying to do,” Mozeliak said. “But a lot of that is going to depend on who is still available and where we are in the process.”
Mozeliak won’t be able to answer these questions definitively until there is further clarity on Arenado. Though the Cardinals declined his option for 2025, they could consider bringing back Kyle Gibson on a different deal if they end up trading Matz or have another opening in the rotation. However, I’d rule out St. Louis adding any free agents until January.
It seems like the tone of the off-season changed from a deeper reboot to a softer refresh, at least in the MLB roster. How much was that impacted by Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras’s wishes to stay? Does having two veteran leaders choose to stay change the atmosphere or the narrative around the team’s near-term expectations? — Amelia B.
There is a perception that the Cardinals are waiting a year or two before pushing to be a contender. Why are they waiting to show an urgency to make a push? There are good players available via free agency and or trades. There is nothing in the rules that says the Cardinals can’t both move players off their roster and bring in new players in the same offseason. — Jay H.
The NL Central seems to be regressing. Is there a chance that the Cardinals front office will modify the “let the kids play” approach to take advantage of the opportunity that the division is presenting? — Steve.
The Cardinals definitely benefit from Contreras and Gray electing to remain with the organization. Though they never pledged a full-on rebuild, keeping the ace of the staff and the team’s best offensive player obviously allows St. Louis to keep somewhat of a competitive edge heading into 2025, and probably influenced the decision to keep Helsley — at least to an extent.
Still, the Cardinals are sticking to their plan regardless of what the rest of the division is doing. Mozeliak, ownership and advisor Chaim Bloom have been transparent about the Cardinals’ need to reemphasize their focus on their homegrown talent.
“Our baseball decisions going forward will focus on developing our pipeline of players, giving our young core every opportunity to succeed at the major-league level,” chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said at the end of the season.
So while it is true that nothing is preventing the Cardinals from bringing in new players, or spending more money, the organization remains committed to seeing how their internal talent plays. The Cardinals are doing this to learn which areas they will have to improve via external options next winter. Right now, Masyn Winn and Brendan Donovan are locks to build around. The Cardinals need to figure out what kind of players Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II and Nolan Gorman are. They need to find the catcher of the future, whether that be Pedro Pagés, Iván Herrera or another backstop in the minors. There is an array of pitching in Triple A, so how do arms like Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore fit long-term? Signing players outside of the organization only further clogs the depth chart.
In an ideal world for the Cardinals, these young players prosper and contend for the division. But the club is also preparing for the chance that the group struggles. For the first time in recent memory, the team is willing to concede wins to ensure development because they believe this is the best blueprint to build a new core — one they hope will bring winning baseball back to St. Louis.
Is there any shot that Ryan Helsley gets an extension with the Cardinals? What are the odds he is a Cardinal in 2026? — Lucas T.
Do you think the Cardinals will offer Masyn Winn an extension this year? — Steeph D.
Is there anyone on this club worthy of a long-term extension? — Kevin S.
It’s hard to say where the Cardinals stand on extensions because of the incoming turnover in the front office. Though Mozeliak is calling the shots for one more year, he will not make an impact decision without consulting Bloom. Right now, it’s unclear where either party stands on long-term extensions.
Helsley’s future is too unpredictable to say if he will be an extension candidate. Mozeliak is on record on his preference to keep Helsley, telling The Athletic: “It’s something we will always remain open-minded to, but our plan is to have (Helsley) be part of our organization.”
If St. Louis is not in contention at the trade deadline, the Cardinals will likely shop Helsley. It’s too early to tell if the club will discuss an extension or offer a qualifying offer at the end of next year.
There have not been concrete conversations with Winn’s camp about an extension. However, if the organization is trying to sell fans on the idea of building around a youth movement, locking down Winn through his arbitration years would be a good strategy. This offseason might not be ideal for the club, especially with a reduction in television revenue and an expected drop in next year’s ticket sales. But it’s an idea worth exploring, especially if Winn’s 2025 starts similar to how his 2024 season went.
(Top photo of Nolan Arenado: Jeff Curry / Imagn Images)
