Five games into the new-look Champions League and the 36-team table is finally starting to take shape. Sort of.
Strong favourites to progress have emerged, with Arne Slot’s Liverpool sat top of the pile after an impressive 2-0 victory over Real Madrid made it five wins from five. Inter are yet to concede a goal, while Barcelona and Arsenal — with convincing results this week — have increased their chances of qualifying for the knockout stages, via the play-offs or otherwise, to at least 90 per cent.
At the bottom, too, the picture is becoming clearer. There are still three teams without a single point — including surprise strugglers RB Leipzig — along with winless Bologna, whose chances of qualification are hanging by a thread after a fourth successive defeat.
There’s also the small issue of the spread of just three points separating Bayer Leverkusen in sixth to Dinamo Zagreb down in 23rd.
Are any of the traditional elite actually in danger of going out?
Given the congestion around the play-off spots, it’s a fair assumption to suggest that Real Madrid and Manchester City will find their way through to the last 16, even if it creates unwanted fixtures to add to an already tight schedule. The projections, however, suggest that one superpower faces an uphill task, with PSG’s projected points tally of nine likely to leave them 26th in the table, a point short of the qualification line.
Luis Enrique’s side are now winless in their last four Champions League games following a 1-0 defeat to Bayern Munich, with a tricky trip to Stuttgart and a huge home tie against Pep Guardiola’s City to come. The PSG boss was furious after a last-gasp defeat to Atletico Madrid two weeks prior — describing the result as “inexplicable”, “unjust” and even a “robbery” in his post-match press conference — but the 54-year-old could have no complaints over a drab showing in Munich, the visitors comfortably outplayed even before Ousmane Dembele’s second-half red card.
Real Madrid are just one place above the Parisians in the 36-team table and although the defending champions were similarly blunt at Anfield this week, our projections still give them a much better chance of avoiding a shock exit.
Despite three losses in their last four Champions League games — as many as in their previous 29 — they are expected to win their remaining two home games against Red Bull Salzburg and Brest after a daunting trip to high-flying Atalanta, and they have just a seven per cent chance of falling through the early trapdoor.
Carlo Ancelotti is contending with a number of high-profile injuries at present and while their attacking dynamics have yet to truly click since the summer arrival of Kylian Mbappe, they were particularly unbalanced against Liverpool on Wednesday night.
As we can see from his match dashboard below, Mbappe could not make the most of his chance on the left in the absence of Vinicius Junior, consistently looking to cut inside (demonstrated by the dotted lines) to no particular avail.
City’s spectacular collapse at home to Feyenoord — the first team to ever surrender a three-goal lead after the 75th minute in Champions League history — leaves them in the bottom half of the table, too, but, like Madrid, our projections recognise that overall squad quality should see them through.
A double-Dutch comeback
Feyenoord weren’t the only side from the Netherlands to defy the odds this week, as Peter Bosz’s PSV made it four unbeaten in the Champions League with a dramatic 3-2 win over Shakhtar Donetsk. Conceding twice in the first half, the runaway Eredivisie league leaders scored their first goal after 86 minutes and 53 seconds, before hitting twice in stoppage time to secure a famous win.
Shakhtar’s goalkeeper Dmytro Riznyk made 15 saves in all as the home side launched 21 shots towards his goal after a 70th-minute red card, as we can see from the sudden peak in their expected goals (xG) step plot below.
Each of PSV’s three goals were scored by USMNT regulars, including a spectacular knuckle-ball strike from Malik Tillman, wobbling in the air as it soared into the top corner. Ricardo Pepi poked home the late winner, his 13th goal for club and country this season after a hat-trick against Groningen at the weekend.
It’s a result that leaves PSV with an 87 per cent chance of making the play-off round, where they might fancy their chances over two legs — now unbeaten (over 90 minutes) in more than two years in competitive action at home. They will have taken those odds at half-time.
An individual performance for the ages
Gian Piero Gasparini’s Atalanta are one of only three sides yet to lose in the league phase, adding to their impressive streak with an emphatic 6-1 win over Swiss side Young Boys. It’s been over two months since La Dea tasted defeat in any competition, seeing off Napoli and Stuttgart, and scoring 35 goals in 12 games along the way.
There is some serious attacking talent throughout an eclectic squad; Ademola Lookman inspired them to a Europa League title last season with a hat-trick in the final, while striker Mateo Retegui has scored 16 goals and provided four assists in just under 17 full games for the club.
This latest victory, however, was all about Charles de Ketelaere, who became just the third player in Champions League history — alongside Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi — to contribute to five goals in a single game. Driving down the right, his first assist for Retegui was an incisive slipped pass through, while a terrific swivelled finish and a deflected effort in the second half put the icing on a clinical creative display.
Amid the noise of the league phase, Atalanta are quietly carving out a very convincing path through to the knockout stage, with a 58 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight. Next up, they host Real Madrid, a fixture which could cause the reigning champions further issues.
Best of the rest
Borussia Dortmund continued their fine form in this season’s competition with a 3-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb, with Jamie Gittens front and centre once more. Nuri Sahin’s side are fourth in both the actual and our projected table, with a very healthy 75 per cent chance of progressing directly to the last 16.
Fellow Bundesliga side Bayer Leverkusen also took a big step to qualification with a 5-0 win over Red Bull Salzburg. Wing-back Alex Grimaldo scored a dipping free kick, provided an assist, and took seven shots in total, meaning he has now provided 38 goal contributions since joining the club last summer. Pretty good for a wing-back.
Arsenal’s 5-1 win over Sporting CP reasserts their grip on a top-eight finish, Mikel Arteta’s side now with a 70 per cent chance of direct qualification to the last 16. Martin Odegaard’s seamless return to the side ignited the right flank once again, with four of their five goals stemming from open-play sequences down that side.
Atletico Madrid’s 6-0 thumping of Sparta Prague came almost exactly a year after they beat Celtic by the same scoreline in this competition. Julian Alvarez and Angel Correa both scored twice, while additional finishes from Antoine Griezmann and Alexander Sorloth saw Atletico flex their attacking muscles. They are now projected to finish in 10th place in the league stage.
And finally, Austrian champions Sturm Graz recorded their first points of the league phase with a tight 1-0 win over Girona, but not without a huge slice of fortune. Ivan Martin scooped the ball over the bar from 2.7 metres in the first half, leaving the Spanish side a mountain to climb if they are to qualify, with Liverpool, Arsenal and Milan up next.
(Top photo: Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images)
