At the halfway point of the league phase’s debut in the Champions League, one might expect the top of the table to be exclusively populated by the competition’s usual suspects.
However, aside from Liverpool, Inter Milan and Barcelona — clubs with 14 combined Champions League/European Cup wins between them — the sides currently in the eight spots to qualify direct to the round of 16 are a diverse mix, several of whom are outperforming expectations. Brest, the French team making their debut at this level, are chief among them, though Monaco, Aston Villa and Sporting Lisbon are also raising eyebrows across Europe with their results.
While the jury may still be out on the new format, it has thrown up some surprising results and performances, arguably none more so than Sporting’s 4-1 dispatching of Manchester City on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Real Madrid continue to stutter in their title defence, and Paris Saint-Germain, still adapting to the loss of superstar Kylian Mbappe, currently sit in the tournament’s bottom 16 spots, which would mean elimination from Europe for the season altogether after the final set of league-phase fixtures in late January.
All the results from the first four matchdays have impacted The Athletic’s Champions League projections, powered by Opta. With another four games to go for all 36 teams, we analyse the state of play.
Paris Saint-Germain
Projected points after MD 1: 14 (11th in projection table)
Projected points after MD 2: 13 (16th)
Projected points after MD 3: 12 (20th)
Projected points after MD 4: 10 (25th)
After a last-gasp home defeat against Atletico Madrid on Wednesday, PSG require a significant turnaround to get their Champions League campaign back on track.
They had started the league phase with a win, beating visitors Girona 1-0, but on reflection, needing a last-minute own goal from goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga to squeeze past the Spanish Champions League debutants might have indicated the reigning French champions are not the force they had been in recent years.
In their first test against another side fancied to go a long way in the tournament, they were comfortably beaten, 2-0, by Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium. Then on matchday three, they limped to a disappointing 1-1 draw at home to Dutch side PSV Eindhoven, leaving coach Luis Enrique looking for a first win in three to restart their Champions League challenge when Atletico came to the Parc des Princes this week. While they started the match with an early goal through Warren Zaire-Emery, PSG fell to a 2-1 defeat as Gianluigi Donnarumma let Angel Correa’s shot slip beneath his grasp in second-half added time.
With four games remaining, PSG sit 25th and in the league phase’s elimination zone. Before the first game, their fixture list was statistically the most difficult of all 36 sides in the tournament, but our projections suggested they would progress into the knockout play-off round, where the sides finishing between ninth and 24th meet to decide who join the top eight in the round of 16, with 13 points.
Having collected just four points from as many matches, that final projected points total has been revised down to just 10. They are still to play two European giants Manchester City and Bayern Munich, as well as Stuttgart and RB Salzburg.
Still, The Athletic’s Opta-powered projections still have them with a 65 per cent chance of qualifying for that play-off phase.
Liverpool
Projected points after MD 1: 15 (7th)
Projected points after MD 2: 16 (4th)
Projected points after MD 3: 18 (1st)
Projected points after MD 4: 20 (1st)
In October, Liverpool’s vice-captain and soon-to-be out-of-contract homegrown star Trent Alexander-Arnold said he did not want to be “the player who only won trophies when he was young”. As it stands, his prospects look as strong as ever in what may be his final season at Anfield, as Liverpool currently top both the Premier League and Champions League tables.
Liverpool convincingly dealt with German champions Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 on Tuesday, with Luis Diaz, who started the match as a central striker rather than in his usual position out wide, scoring his first hat-trick since joining from Porto in 2022. It was another positive result and performance for the six-time European champions, maintaining their 100 per cent record so far with wins against AC Milan, Bologna, RB Leipzig and now Leverkusen.
Before matchday one, The Athletic’s Opta-powered projections had Liverpool finishing the league phase with 13 points — good enough for ninth (just missing the eight automatic last-16 qualification places). Considering they had the joint-second toughest fixture list, according to Opta, their overperformance so far has been outstanding. With 12 points on the board at the halfway stage, they are now projected to finish with 20 points, progressing into the knockouts in first place.
However, Liverpool’s next opponents are Real Madrid at Anfield, which looks their toughest test yet. While Madrid’s performances and results from their first four matches have fallen short of expectations, they are the reigning European and Spanish champions and have a host of match-winners at coach Carlo Ancelotti’s disposal. It’s also a modern rivalry, with Madrid beating Liverpool in the Champions League finals of 2018 and 2022.
Still, given their other remaining opponents are Girona, Lille and PSV, sides not used to competing in this tournament’s latter stages, Liverpool are rock-solid favourites (95 per cent) to progress comfortably to the next stage.
Brest
Projected points after MD 1: 9 (25th)
Projected points after MD 2: 12 (18th)
Projected points after MD 3: 12 (18th)
Projected points after MD 4: 14 (12th)
Despite being tipped for early elimination, rookies Brest continue their march towards the knockout stages.
In their first European campaign of any kind, a club who were playing fourth-tier football in the 1990s and only won promotion back to the French top flight in 2019 have a remarkable 10 points from their opening four matches.
They began their Champions League odyssey with a 2-1 win over similarly unfavoured Sturm Graz before convincingly dispatching Red Bull Salzburg, another Austria side, 4-0. They then recorded arguably their most impressive result of their campaign so far, drawing 1-1 with visitors Leverkusen, before collecting another three points against Sparta Prague with a 2-1 away win yesterday
Brest were predicted to collect just eight points in this revamped league phase — a total they have already surpassed with half their matches still to play. Their form in Ligue 1 has taken a hit (they are 11th in France’s 18-team top tier), but fans will surely trade domestic wobbles for a dream run into the knockout stages of Europe’s premier club competition.
With games against Barcelona and Real Madrid still to come, sterner tests await the side from north-west France. However, after their strong start to the tournament, our projections have Brest remaining in the hunt for automatic qualification for the knockout phase (27 per cent) with a projected total of 14 points — but they are most likely to finish in the play-off spots (72 per cent).
Real Madrid
Projected points after MD 1: 18 (1st)
Projected points after MD 2: 16 (6th)
Projected points after MD 3: 16 (4th)
Projected points after MD 4: 13 (18th)
So much for being the reigning European champions! Real Madrid will not finish in the top eight spots if their current league-phase form continues.
On Tuesday, they were beaten 3-1 by AC Milan at home, leaving the 15-time kings of Europe in 18th place (only two points ahead of PSG, who are in the bottom 12). The Athletic’s Opta-powered projections have Madrid avoiding the ignominy of an early elimination with an eventual 13 points, but their remaining four fixtures are not straightforward.
On paper, they should comfortably beat RB Salzburg and Brest, but the latter are in good form in the tournament (see above) and are currently projected to finish with more points than Madrid. Even if their quality wins out in those two fixtures, current form suggests they could struggle away to old foes Liverpool and Atalanta, last season’s Europa League champions, in their next two games.
According to the projections, Madrid are set to be the highest-profile club in the knockout play-off stage (79 per cent).
Sporting Lisbon
Projected points after MD 1: 14 (10th)
Projected points after MD 2: 14 (12th)
Projected points after MD 3: 15 (10th)
Projected points after MD 4: 17 (3rd)
Ruben Amorim has already endeared himself to fans of new employers Manchester United after leading Sporting to a 4-1 win over Manchester City this week, and we project they will continue their march into the knockouts without their departing head coach.
A Victor Gyokeres hat-trick inspired Portugal’s current league leaders to the convincing upset over the four-in-a-row Premier League title winners — their third victory of the 2024-25 Champions League so far. With half of the group phase played, Sporting are below only Liverpool in the table and are now projected to finish with 17 points, five more than the model predicted ahead of matchday one.
As it stands, they have a 75 per cent chance of going straight to the round of 16, though Amorim’s departure to Old Trafford this weekend may have a detrimental effect on their final four matches. Sporting host Arsenal in their next game at the end of this month, then travel to face Club Bruges and RB Leipzig before closing out the league phase at home to Bologna.
What about the rest?
Inter Milan continued their impressive run in the Champions League on Wednesday, beating Arsenal 1-0 at San Siro. Initially predicted to finish on 18 points, they now sit second on our projected league table. Barcelona thrashed Red Star Belgrade 5-2 away, the fifth time in seven matches across all competitions that they scored four or more goals (they only managed three in the other two, the slackers). Given their strong run of performances and results, it is no surprise Barca are now predicted to finish in the top four with 16 points.
Celtic recorded their best result of their Champions League campaign so far on Tuesday, beating RB Leipzig 3-1 in Glasgow. The Scottish champions were projected to finish in the 24th and last knockout play-offs place with 10 points before matchday one, but with seven points from four games, our Opta-powered model now gives them a promising 77 per cent chance of making the play-off round.
Aston Villa suffered a disappointing 1-0 defeat at Club Bruges in Wednesday’s early kick-off slot, surrendering their 100 per cent record and slipping from top spot. Villa were only projected to finish the league phase on 10 points before the first match, so their relative overperformance (nine points from the first three games) is outstanding. Even so, the model now projects they are more likely to finish in the play-off berths than the automatic qualification spots, with Juventus, Leipzig, Monaco and Celtic still to play.
And despite losing to Sporting, we still project Manchester City as the most likely winners of this season’s Champions League as things stand. Pep Guardiola’s team have a 19 per cent chance of becoming champions of Europe for the second time in three years, while Liverpool (16 per cent) and Inter (12 per cent) rank closely behind.
Interestingly, our model rates Arsenal (eight per cent), who have never won the Champions League, as more likely winners at this stage than Real Madrid (six per cent).
(Top photo: Carl Recine/Getty Images)
