The inaugural 36-team UEFA Champions League group phase is creeping to a conclusion, with Liverpool all but through to the knockout stages with two rounds of fixtures left to go.
But beyond them, and the three teams eliminated from the competition after six consecutive defeats (RB Leipzig, Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys), there is still plenty to sort out between now and the 18-simultaneous-game-mayhem of January 29, with just six points separating Stuttgart in 26th and Arsenal all the way up in third.
With the help of The Athletic’s Opta-powered Champions League projections, here are the talking points from gameweek six, and how it may impact the competition going forward.
Big away wins keep European giants alive
A trip to Atalanta is one of the last fixtures that Real Madrid would have chosen to avoid a third-straight Champions League defeat. Gian Piero Gasperini’s high-flying side were on a nine-game winning streak ahead of the visit of the defending European champions, having scored six on their last outing in this competition.
Not so much for their overall performance, but for the flashes of individual brilliance and a trademark clinical edge, Madrid’s 3-2 win felt like a resounding statement of intent.
Only once in Carlo Ancelotti’s second spell as manager has an opposing side generated more expected goals (xG) against his team, and at times the home side had Madrid penned in. But this was a night for Galacticos, and after Mbappe’s magical first touch and thumping finish put the visitors ahead from practically nothing, their threat on the transition was made abundantly clear.
Madrid’s second, following a fortunate deflection, was tucked away ruthlessly by Vinicius Junior, while Jude Bellingham’s step-over and left-footed hammer-blow was hit with the conviction of a player with six goals in his last seven.
There had been concerns over the Englishman’s attacking output this season, but another all-action performance on Tuesday — covering most of the pitch as his heatmap below illustrates, while also dropping deep to defend his left-side, and driving in behind for his goal — put those doubts to bed once again.
Five places down in 25th, Paris Saint-Germain eased their way to a 3-0 victory over RB Salzburg, bringing a four-game winless run in the Champions League to a convincing end.
The gulf in quality between the two sides was clear as the Parisiens carved out chance after chance with their trickery and forward momentum out wide. Bradley Barcola completed 10 one-vs-one take-ons — the most of any player in a Champions League game this season — while both full-backs either scored or created all three goals.
As we can see from the passing network below, the supply line into Barcola was strong, while Achraf Hakimi pushed forward freely as the widest player of PSG’s right-side triangle, providing two assists and laying another chance on a plate for Goncalo Ramos midway through the first half.
Madrid’s win means they are in the unusual position of having a less than one per cent chance of elimination but also a less than one per cent chance of finishing in the top eight. PSG, in contrast, still only have a two-thirds chance of making the top 24, per our projections. With a crunch-match against Manchester City next, before a trip to Stuttgart — who are level with them on seven points — things could go down to the wire.
And what about City?
The same old issues continue to plague Pep Guardiola’s side. No team in the Premier League has given up more xG from counter-attacks, and their second goal in Turin last night illustrated just how stretched they can look on the transition.
For UK viewers:
Juventus double their lead over Man City 😳
📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/okSptReD23
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) December 11, 2024
For US viewers:
Scored in Torino, made in America! 🇮🇹🤝🇺🇸
Juve’s #USMNT duo combine for a goal to remember as Tim Weah sets up Weston McKennie 🪄 pic.twitter.com/ZaZsL3u7jY
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) December 11, 2024
Despite a seventh defeat in ten games — as many as they had suffered in their previous 105 in all competitions — our projections still give City a healthy chance of progressing, with a 91 per cent chance of finishing in a knockout play-off spot. Even if they do lose to PSG next time out, a win against Club Brugge will likely be just enough to sneak through, although currently the Belgian side are on an 11-game unbeaten run themselves.
In the context of a jam-packed, injury-hit season, two more Champions League games for City in February is not what Guardiola will have had in mind. While table positions are subject to change, that two-legged play-off would see them face either Atletico Madrid or Milan as things stand, highlighting just how complicated things could become if City can’t work their way further up the table in their remaining two games.
With the top of the table largely laid out, that game in Paris next month could be the most significant of the entire group phase.
Aston Villa close in on a top-eight finish
Aston Villa are enjoying an upturn in form following a previous run of eight games without a win, and took a huge step towards Champions League qualification with an impressive 3-2 win away at RB Leipzig. Now up to 13 points, our model projects that Unai Emery’s side will finish in eighth on 16 points, although Milan and Atletico Madrid will be hot on their heels.
It was another game dominated by their inevitable No 9, as Jhon Duran came on as a second-half substitute to score his sixth goal from the bench this season. Picking up the ball just inside his own half before catching goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi off his line, it was another moment of unpredictability from a player whose ability to drive from distance helps him to continually over-perform his expected output.
Villa’s winner was another shot from distance, although Ross Barkley was helped by a kind deflection as he slipped before striking from 28 yards. It was the first shot from outside the area that the 31-year-old has scored since January 2023, when he was playing for Ligue 1 side, Nice.
Leipzig, meanwhile, have been one of the major disappointments of the tournament and remain without a point after six consecutive defeats. An excited front line of Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda showed their potential in glimpses on Tuesday, but the German side are now mathematically out of the competition along with Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava, the two other winless sides.
Going straight through to the last 16 would make life easier for Villa as they attempt to juggle European commitments with a gruelling Premier League campaign. Right now our projections have it as a literal 50-50 coin flip as to whether they finish in the top eight or not.
And a fairytale run continues…
That a team like Brest are anywhere near the UEFA Champions League is a minor miracle to begin with.
At the start of the millennium, the club from Britanny were in the fourth-tier of French football, and had scraped 14th in Ligue 1 the season before they miraculously finished third. Their stadium, the rickety Stade Francis Le-Ble, was deemed too outdated for use in Europe’s top club competition, while the starting XI that beat PSV on Tuesday — their fourth Champions League win — cost little over €15 million (£12.4m/$15.8m) to assemble.
Brest have found it difficult to replicate last season’s stunning domestic run — they have lost key midfield enforcer Pierre Lees-Melou to a recurring fibula injury — but their intensity and resilience on European nights leaves them with more than a 50 per cent chance of qualifying for the knockout stages per our projections.
Taking maximum points from their winnable games has underpinned their success, beating RB Salzburg by four goals to nil before securing gritty 2-1 wins over Sturm Graz and Sparta Praha. Although, in beating the Dutch league-leaders this week, they became only the third side to stop PSV from scoring this calendar year.
Goalkeeper Marco Bizot was inspired, but the variety of Brest’s attacking options allows them to mix things up on the counter. Standing at 6ft 5in (1.96m), Ludovic Ajoque brings hold-up play and deft technique, Mama Balde can tear into open space and is capable of the spectacular, while Abdallah Sima can run the flanks and blast through the middle when his side spring forward on the break.
Our projections have them finishing on 15 points, which would be a superb effort in their first Champions League foray.
The best of the rest
Liverpool became the first side to secure a Top Eight finish with a 1-0 win over Girona. Arne Slot’s side are still perfect in the competition with six wins from six, but it was the performance of Darwin Nunez that grabbed the headlines, after another wasteful display.
Arsenal all-but joined them in the last 16 with an impressive 3-0 win over Monaco. Bukayo Saka scored twice as 18-year-old Myles Lewis-Skelly made his first Champions League start, the win taking Arsenal’s probability of an automatic spot in the knockouts to almost 98 per cent.
Inter finally conceded their first goal of the competition as they fell to a late 1-0 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen. Both sides are well placed to progress to the next round, projected to finish fifth and sixth respectively.
Ferran Torres was the hero as Barcelona won a topsy-turvy game at Borussia Dortmund. Hansi Flick’s side are now second in the standings after the substitute’s late double, sealing all three points after another brilliant Lamine Yamal assist.
Bayern Munich turned on the style in a ruthless 5-1 win over Shakhtar Donestk. Michael Olise and Jamal Musiala put on a dribbling clinic, waltzing into the penalty area to score sublime late goals. Vincent Kompany’s side are now predicted to finish sixth, with one more point than projected at the start of the group phase.
Atletico Madrid made it ten wins on the bounce with a 3-1 win over Slovan Bratislava. Antoine Greizmann scored twice again after he sealed a dramatic late win over Sevilla on the weekend, taking his season tally to eleven. His team now have a 62 per cent chance of automatic qualification, per our Opta-powered projections.
Not to be outdone, Lille extended their own unbeaten run to fifteen with a 3-2 win over Sturm Graz. Bruno Genesio’s side head to Anfield in January, having already beaten Atletico Madrid and Bologna on the road. Given just a five per cent chance of a top eight finish before a ball was kicked, those odds are up to 26 per cent after five games unbeaten.
And Stuttgart made things very interesting in the bottom half with a convincing 5-1 win over Young Boys. Having beaten Juventus, while creating more than enough chances to trouble Real Madrid in September, and will go head-to-head with PSG and City for that final qualifying place, and welcome the French side to the MHP Arena on the final day.
(Header photos: Getty Images)
