So we skipped last week. Sue us. Our resident picker was mired in the best Maui Invitational in years, and besides, it’s not like we were gonna pick eleventy billion games anyway.
But we’re back, baby. We’ve got a slammed Wednesday slate, and you all have Christmas (and Hannukah) presents to pay for. Everybody eats? We hope so. We’ve got a 4-1 opening-week record to protect.
No. 2 Auburn at No. 9 Duke
This is strength vs. strength. Duke leads the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, while Auburn is No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Duke, which is one of the nation’s tallest teams and doesn’t have a rotation player under 6-foot-5, only allows 58.6 points per game, good for the ninth-fewest nationally. Auburn, meanwhile, averages 86.7 points per game, which ranks 21st nationally, and dropped 74 and 83 against the two other top-15 defenses it has faced so far. Auburn center Johni Broome looks like the frontrunner for National Player of the Year, while Duke wing Cooper Flagg is the favorite to go No. 1 in next year’s NBA Draft.
The parallels are wild… so what will be the difference-maker in this big matchup? Could it be home-court advantage? Duke is playing inside Cameron Indoor Stadium with its favorable rims. Could be Auburn’s defense? The Tigers rank No. 1 in defensive assist rate and No. 5 in allowed 3-point rate. I lean the latter, but it’s close.
The pick: Auburn +2.5
No. 10 Alabama at No. 20 North Carolina
The best advice I can give in this one? Take. The. Over. Both teams are top-15 nationally in scoring — UNC is seventh at 89.7 points per game, Alabama is 11th at 88.6 — and sub-300 in scoring defense, allowing at least 78 points per contest. Neither has been held below 72 all season, and that shouldn’t start now. Both teams also rank in the top 10 in adjusted tempo. Get ready for a track meet.
Alabama’s two losses so far are to No. 8 Purdue and No. 12 Oregon, both away from home, but Nate Oats’ team has also beaten No. 17 Houston and No. 19 Illinois. On the other hand, the Tar Heels are 0-3 vs. high-major teams this season, and their size (or lack thereof) — Hubert Davis starts three guards under 6-foot-3 — has translated to rebounding and defensive woes. Alabama has the size edge and better resume, but the Tar Heels’ 3-point shooting (top-50 nationally) can be an equalizer. Alabama won by two when these teams played in the Sweet 16 in March, and this one should be similarly neck-and-neck.
The pick: Alabama +2.5
No. 18 Pitt at Mississippi State
This is the only ACC-SEC Challenge game with a ranked ACC team against an unranked SEC foe. Pitt has been one of the biggest surprises in the country this season, largely because reigning ACC Sixth Man of the Year Ish Leggett has made a full star turn, and point guard Jaland Lowe is having a breakout sophomore season. Those two combine to average 35 points, 12.7 rebounds, and eight assists per game.
As for Mississippi State, Chris Jans’ team hasn’t been quite as stingy as usual defensively, but the Bulldogs offset that somewhat by rarely turning the ball over; they’re second nationally in turnover rate, and the Panthers don’t force many takeaways. Bulldogs point guard Josh Hubbard is one of the SEC’s leading scorers (19.1 points per game), but Pitt has the depth and offensive balance to win its last consequential nonconference game.
The pick: Pitt +5.5
No. 5 Marquette at No. 6 Iowa State
The best game of the Big 12-Big East Battle and probably the best game of the week. Iowa State has been one of the best, most complete teams in the country this season. That’s including its Maui Invitational loss to Auburn, a game it not only led by as many as 18 but where it had the ball with under 30 seconds left and the score tied. The Cyclones didn’t pull that one out, but that’s as much a credit to Auburn as anything. TJ Otzelberger has four guards — Keshon Gilbert, Tamin Lipsey, Curtis Jones and Milan Momcilovic — who are liable to go off any given night, and they’ve combined to form one of the best transition offenses in America.
Then there’s Marquette, owners of the nation’s longest active winning streak, who dealt No. 8 Purdue its only loss this season in addition to wins over Maryland and Georgia away from home. Golden Eagles guard Kam Jones has looked like an All-American over the first month of the season, while David Joplin, Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross have all taken the next step, too. This is as close to a toss-up as there is… but if there’s a slight edge to be had, consider the venue: Hilton Coliseum — where Iowa State went undefeated last season.
The pick: Marquette +5.5
No. 15 Baylor at No. 25 Connecticut
So much for this being a top-10 matchup like it was billed back in the preseason. Frankly, the fact that UConn is still ranked is comical; the Huskies haven’t beaten a top-300 opponent this season and are 0-3 vs. high-major foes.
Both teams have similar profiles: top-10 offenses and sub-75 defenses, with national championship-winning coaches trying to balance the scale. Baylor rebounded well from its opening-night blowout loss to Gonzaga and has beaten both Arkansas and St. John’s — the latter in dramatic fashion, via a double-overtime, buzzer-beating 3-pointer — to bolster its resume.
The Huskies… well, they’re struggling unlike any point in the last two seasons, and Dan Hurley isn’t handling it exceptionally well. Again, I’d take the over more confidently than I would either team, but I’m giving UConn the benefit of the doubt. Hurley didn’t have time to make major defensive tweaks in Maui, with three games in three days, but he will by tip-off on Wednesday. Desperation plus a home crowd is enough to sway me in what should be a high-scoring affair.
The pick: UConn -2.5
(Photo of Johni Broome: Stew Milne / Getty Images)
