The college basketball season is well underway, and we have a Saturday slate that should pique your interest. Sure, leading National Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome may miss a big one for Auburn against Purdue, but there’s still plenty of star power in this slate.
With the holidays near, what’s a better activity than sitting around with family members and cheering on your favorite team? Or maybe your close ones are divided, with die-harders on either side of these matchups? If the only drama among those you love surrounds basketball, then you’re one of the lucky ones. Happy holidays, and make room for joy if you can.
Here are five games and predictions on which way they’ll go.
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No. 16 Purdue at No. 2 Auburn
It does not seem like Auburn center Johni Broome — the current clubhouse leader for National Player of the Year — will play against the Boilermakers due to his shoulder injury. But that makes what would be an automatic pick for Auburn significantly more interesting. Broome isn’t just the Tigers’ best player, his inside-out versatility opens up the rest of Auburn’s top-rated offense. Without him? Well, we’ll see.
Purdue’s defense offers about as much resistance as one-ply toilet paper, but offensively, this group can put on a clinic. The Boilermakers are top-10 offensively, make about 40 percent of their 3s and already have wins over Alabama, Ole Miss and Maryland this season. But this is a defacto road game for Purdue, which is what puts my faith in Auburn over the edge. Matt Painter’s team has already lost both of its true road games this season, and even without Broome, Auburn has the personnel to make life difficult on Purdue’s backcourt of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer.
The pick: Purdue +8.5
No. 18 UCLA at North Carolina
North Carolina is just 1-5 versus high-major opponents this season — its only such win came at home against lowly Georgia Tech, and the Tar Heels still trailed by eight in that game. While the Bruins might seem like the obvious pick, hear me out.
This is UNC’s last consequential nonconference game all season, and its NCAA Tournament resume looks mighty thin. The Tar Heels need this one desperately, and Hubert Davis’ team surely knows that. Might that be motivation enough for North Carolina? Maybe. But matchup-wise, UCLA’s top-5 defense — which thrives on forcing turnovers and running teams off the 3-point line — presents a tough test. Plus, UCLA’s starting frontcourt of Tyler Bilodeau and Eric Dailey Jr. is tailor-made for terrorizing UNC’s undersized bigs. Strictly from a basketball perspective, UCLA has been the better team all season, but if you like narratives, North Carolina is a compelling upset pick.
The pick: UCLA -1.5
No. 9 Marquette at Xavier
Even with Zach Freemantle — Xavier’s best player and leading rebounder — out indefinitely, the Musketeers were “this close” to stealing a marquee Big East win from UConn on Wednesday. Alas, the game went to overtime, and the Huskies pulled out their fifth straight win in Hartford, sinking Xavier to 0-3 this season vs. KenPom’s top-25 teams.
Despite the Musketeers being the oldest high-major team in America this season, they only have one top-100 win this season, over South Carolina (which is in last place in the SEC). The bad news for Xavier fans: This doesn’t seem like an ideal get-right game. Marquette has been awesome all year. The Golden Eagles are one of only eight teams nationally with a top-20 adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking, and their penchant for turning teams over is a bad matchup for a Xavier team that gives up steals. And Marquette’s at home? This pick is the easiest of the day.
The pick: Marquette -5.5
Mississippi State at No. 21 Memphis
Mississippi State and Memphis are better offensively than defensively, but this game might come down to whether or not Memphis makes enough 3-pointers. In wins over UConn, Michigan State and Clemson, the Tigers made 12, eight, and 10 3-pointers, respectively. In losses to Auburn and Arkansas State, they only made six and seven. Penny Hardaway has a potential All-American guard in PJ Haggerty, and between him and fellow backcourt studs Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rogers, Memphis has three guys liable to go off from deep any night.
On the other hand, Mississippi State allows opponents to shoot 36.3 percent from 3-point range, which is barely a top-300 rate nationally. If the Bulldogs can slow the game down and hold onto the ball — they have the second-best turnover percentage in the country — then Mississippi State absolutely has the horses to win this one. The game being in Memphis only makes it that much more interesting. Either team could walk away with a win.
The pick: Memphis -1.5
Ohio State vs. No. 4 Kentucky
I am not totally sure what to think of Ohio State yet. The Buckeyes have been without one of their top frontcourt transfers, former Kentucky forward Aaron Bradshaw, for most of the season, and it has shown. Ohio State has lost all four of its games vs. top-30 KenPom teams (although the Pitt loss came on a buzzer-beater in overtime). However, the Buckeyes still have wins over Texas and Rutgers, which could age well, and Bruce Thornton has been one of the best guards in the country. He’s second on the team in scoring, first in assists and has made 48.7 percent of his 3s.
Kentucky, meanwhile, has been arguably the biggest surprise in the country. Considering new coach Mark Pope had to scramble late and build an entire roster via the transfer portal, I figured the Cats would be OK, but nothing special — and I could not have been more wrong. Kentucky’s defense is nothing to write home about, but its offense is top-10. Pope has been a master of halftime adjustments (especially against Duke and Gonzaga), and unlike under John Calipari, Kentucky doesn’t beat itself anymore. The Wildcats are definitely the better team, but in a neutral-site game, anything’s possible.
The pick: Ohio State +8.5
(Photo of Stevie Mitchell: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
