The college football season keeps rolling on, and it’s time to turn our focus to where the value lies in the betting market for Week 12. Last week was a smaller card due to family matters, but we are back to an early post this week with plenty of plays.
The smaller card last week juiced out thanks to being dead wrong on Georgia, as they got absolutely smoked by Ole Miss. I did not see that coming.
Last week’s record: 2-2, -0.25 units
Season record: 41-47-3, -10.72 units, -10.8% ROI
Back to a normal-sized card this week. We get some MACtion, as well as another midweek bet and a couple bets involving playoff-hopeful teams. Hopefully, I’ll see a few other value plays through the week to add to the card, but we haven’t been as fortunate on that front recently. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck to us!
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Best bets for college football Week 12
Buffalo -3.5 (-110) vs. Ball State
I was hoping we saw a Buffalo -3 here, but I think we are done seeing Ball State money. My model thinks this number has come down too far, so there is some value on Buffalo. In true MACtion fashion, I’m assuming we are going to see a crazy game, considering how much money has come in on Ball State this week.
- Worst price to bet: Buffalo -3.5 (-110)
Arizona -2.5 (-110) vs. Houston
Houston has had a pleasantly surprising year, while Arizona has been quite the opposite. Both defenses should have the edge here, but I’m glad to take the one functional part of an offense — Arizona’s passing game — at home to cover less than a field goal.
- Worst price to bet: Arizona -2.5 (-110)
Memphis -14 (-115) vs. UAB
I’m not super high on Memphis, but this UAB team is rated really low by my projections. UAB has a dreadful rush defense, which should allow Memphis to have a balanced attack. I’m not in love laying two touchdowns but I think this could be a rout here.
- Worst price to bet: Memphis -14 (-115)
Navy +7 (-110) vs. Tulane
This is a huge game for the AAC and an outside sneaky game for the College Football Playoff. Tulane is the better team but I don’t think they should be laying a full touchdown on the road against Navy here. I’m a little worried about the Navy rush defense against Tulane, but in a game where the clock should be churning, I think the Navy can keep it within one score.
- Worst price to bet: Navy +7 (-110)
Akron at Northern Illinois over 45 (-110)
- Worst price to bet: Over 45 (-115)
Utah at Colorado under 47.5 (-110)
- Worst price to bet: Under 47 (-110)
(Photo of Nikhai Hill-Green: John E. Moore III / Getty Images)
