Well, things have not turned. Another tough week. Totals have really let us down recently which I think is mostly a run of bad variance.
Sides have been a disaster and I haven’t been able to get on the right side of the market over the last few weeks. Totals, however, have beaten the closing line 10 out of 14 times while we have only won three of those bets while pushing once. That’s just not going to get it done.
If you’re unfamiliar with closing line value, beating the closing line means betting a game at a better price than what the price is when the game starts. That would be considered “beating the market.” For me, if you beat the market two-thirds of the time, you’ll probably see success over the long-term. The totals have been good in that regard. Unfortunately, my sides have not.
Last week’s record: 1-5, -4.50 units
Season record: 45-56-4, -16.62 units, -14.5% ROI
Eight bets in total this week, four each on sides and totals. There is something in the Iron Bowl that I’m eyeing up but need some movement before getting involved. I’ll update if so. As always shop around for the best price and good luck to us!
Best bets for college football Week 14
Bowling Green -2 (-110) vs. Miami Ohio
I have some Bowling Green MAC futures (+700) so I contemplated not having extra risk here, but I did hit their win total over so I’m not going to shy away. I think Bowling Green is the superior team here. This line is short at anything under a field goal. Let’s get this win and cheer for the Falcons next week in the MAC Championship Game.
- Worst price to bet: Bowling Green -2.5 (-110)
Sam Houston State +3 (-110) vs. Liberty
On the contrary, this is a bit of a hedge against my Liberty CUSA futures. I still have value to play here, but Liberty hasn’t met its preseason expectations. The Flames just haven’t been the same since the stunning loss to Kennesaw State. My numbers make this closer to a pick ’em so I’m happy to take anything at a field goal. Make sure to shop around because there is a +3.5 out there at a little bit more expensive price.
- Worst price to bet: Sam Houston State +3 (-115)
Texas State -1 (-110) at South Alabama
I guess the theme this week is betting on games involving futures that I bet from the preseason. I bet South Alabama under 6.5 wins at +148 so I could reduce risk here, but this is a pretty big edge on Texas State. I think Texas State is the much better team here and am happy with anything at -2.5 or better.
- Worst price to bet: Texas State -2.5 (-115)
Clemson -2.5 (-110) vs. South Carolina
This is a huge game as both teams are alive to make the College Football Playoff. While Clemson’s result doesn’t knock them out, this is a must-win game for the Gamecocks. My model has been higher on Clemson than just about everyone this year and especially the CFP committee. South Carolina’s defense is legit, but I still have questions about the offense, especially on the road against a good Clemson defense.
- Worst price to bet: Clemson -2.5 (-115)
Nebraska at Iowa over 39.5 (-110)
- Worst price to bet: Over 39.5 (-110)
Georgia Tech vs. Georgia over 53 (-110)
- Worst price to bet: Over 53 (-110)
Washington at Oregon over 50.5 (-110)
- Worst price to bet: Over 50.5 (-110)
Wyoming at Washington State under 58.5 (-110)
- Worst price to bet: Under 58.5 (-110)
(Photo of Cade Klubnik: Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)
