The first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff brought few surprises, except perhaps SMU making it into the field over a three-loss Alabama. But with the field now set and several weeks until kickoff, there are plenty of betting opportunities in the first-round games, along with potential hedging opportunities for bettors with futures tickets — especially those holding long-shot tickets on teams like Boise State, Arizona State, Indiana or Notre Dame.
Even though Arizona State and Boise State received first-round byes, we know from the look-ahead lines at sportsbooks that they will be underdogs in their quarterfinal matchups (Boise State +5.5 vs. SMU and +12.5 vs. Penn State; Arizona State +11.5 vs. Texas and +4.5 vs. Clemson).
Which teams are sportsbooks rooting for or against to win it all, based on futures betting liability?
The Athletic talked to several bookmakers to break down the early betting action and big wagers on this year’s College Football Playoff.
National Championship Game
The Oregon Ducks (+350) and Texas Longhorns (+350) are atop the futures board to win the College Football Playoff at sportsbooks, with Georgia (+400), Ohio State (+500) and Penn State (+625) right behind. Boise State at +6000 has the longest odds.
The biggest bet at any legal U.S. sportsbook came last week when a bettor in Louisiana at Caesars Sportsbook wagered $1.5 million on the Texas Longhorns at +390 odds to win the College Football Playoff. The bet was “one of the largest we’ve taken,” according to Feazel.
Sportsbooks would like to avoid a long-shot bet winning it all because of all the wagers that add up to a huge liability. But they are unlikely to have to worry too much.
“We really don’t want to see a Cinderella run from Boise State, Indiana or Arizona State,” Magee told The Athletic. “Those fliers add up. Texas is a sizable loser for us as well. Notre Dame and Tennessee are decent results.”
How favorites like Oregon and Ohio State fare depends on the sportsbook.
“Two top-five teams in Oregon and Texas have been heavy public favorites all season long,” according to Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook’s General Manager, Brad Bryant. “Even with both schools as co-favorites (+360), (either of) them winning would be trouble for the sportsbook.”
For others, Texas is the team to avoid.
“Texas is going to be the best-case for the customer and our biggest liability in the playoff,” Feazel said. “We have a decent amount of Boise State money, nothing terrible, but took some bets on them throughout the year. Outside of them, SMU and Clemson are best scenarios. Out of the big dogs, Penn State, Oregon and Ohio State would be decent results.”
Big Futures Bets
Here are a few notable title bets to keep an eye on:
Caesars
On Dec. 6, a Louisiana bettor placed $1.5 million on Texas (+390) to win the national championship for a potential $5,850,000 win
On Nov. 18, a Louisiana bettor placed $50,000 on Georgia (+500) to win the national championship for a potential $250,000 win
On July 16, a Tennessee bettor placed $400 on Boise St. (+25000) to win the national championship for a potential $100,000 win
On July 18, an Arizona bettor placed $100 on Arizona St. (+100000) to win the national championship for a potential $100,000 win
DraftKings
Arizona State: (+100000) $100 to win $100,000
Boise State (+10000): $700 to win $70,000
Indiana (+40000): $500 to win $200,000
Notre Dame (+8000): $500 to win $40,000
SMU (+3500): $4,000 to win $140,000
Tennessee: (+3500): $2,250 to win $78,750
What about a 24-team College Football Playoff?
Just like in the NFL, the teams that win their divisions and the wild-card teams with the next-best records get in. No arbitrary criteria. Just math.@slmandel has more ⤵️https://t.co/zFEXFXexC2 pic.twitter.com/mZAjyMHsDk
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 12, 2024
The Games
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame (-7.5, 51.5)
This game opened Notre Dame -8.5 at several sportsbooks, and respected bets pushed the number down to -7.5, where it currently sits. The total opened at 51.5, went down to 50.5 and now is back to 51.5. Over 60 percent of the bets and 70 percent of the money wagered so far at DraftKings Sportsbook was on Indiana to cover. Several sportsbooks also reported bettors taking Notre Dame on the spread or Indiana on the moneyline (ML).
“We opened Notre Dame -8.5 and a total of 51.5,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, revealed. “We took some respected money on Indiana, taking 8.5 and 8 to push us down to 7.5.”
Joey Feazel, head college football trader at Caesars Sportsbook, said this was one of the lower-bet games of the four so far but that it would eventually take a “decent chunk” of the handle because it was a standalone game on Friday night, Dec. 20.
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State (-8.5, 54)
One of the more evenly-bet games so far, 53 percent of bets and the handle have come in on Penn State -8.5 at DraftKings, and it was a similar story at other books, although Feazel said that Caesaars was taking a “healthy amount of Penn State spread bets.”
“A lot of Penn State money-line parlays coming in,” Seamus Magee, BetMGM’s college football trader, told The Athletic. “Not a lot of action on the SMU ML. Money has come in both ways here on the spread.”
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas (-11, 51.5)
Clemson at Texas is another game with betting and money nearly 50-50 at DraftKings; the early sharp money was on Texas, which pushed this line higher. However, multiple sportsbooks told The Athletic that this game had received the least action of the four.
“This was the biggest move, as we opened Texas -9.5 and moved all the way to -11.5,” said DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello.
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State (-7.5, 47)
Tennessee at OSU is the most-bet game of the four so far, and public money has been pouring in on Tennessee to cover, with 76 percent of bets and 87 percent of the money on Tennessee +7.5 at DraftKings. Early sharp money came in on Ohio State -7 at several books.
“This is the most-bet game, and that’s not surprising because these are probably the most competitive teams on paper,” Avello noted. “Right now, we have a big discrepancy money-wise on both Tennessee spread and moneyline. We opened Ohio State -7 and got pushed up to -7.5 from some sharp bets. Two good defenses here, so I expect some under money to come in as well.”
(Photo of Quinn Ewers: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
