The season’s second unveiling of College Football Playoff rankings produced little drama, thanks in large part to the field’s expansion from four to 12 teams. But it still was a bit jarring Tuesday night to see four SEC teams in the projected bracket and Georgia as the first team out.
Which games will be next to shake up the rankings? Last week, it was Ole Miss beating Georgia and Georgia Tech upsetting previously undefeated Miami. This week, No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia will impact the field no matter who wins. Could there be an upset or two, such as No. 3 Texas at Arkansas, Virginia at No. 8 Notre Dame or Kansas at No. 6 BYU?
There has been plenty of discourse about the SEC and Big Ten’s influence over the rankings with each league landing four teams inside the projected 12-team bracket. To truly evaluate these teams, it makes sense to remove conference affiliations and logos and just examine blind resumes.
To that end, let’s take a closer look at the resumes of the current Top 25. Teams were judged by the following metrics:
- Strength of schedule
- Average point differential against FBS competition
- FBS opponents’ combined win-loss record and winning percentage
- Wins and losses against the current CFP Top 25
- Record against FBS teams with winning records
- Record against FBS teams with non-winning records
Note: For strength of schedule, we averaged rankings from three services: ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and the Sagarin ratings.
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Let’s see how the teams stack up.
Scenario 1
All three of these teams are undefeated.
| Metric | Team 1 | Team 2 | Team 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Overall record
|
9-0
|
10-0
|
10-0
|
|
Average strength of schedule rating
|
50.6
|
43
|
79
|
|
Average FBS point differential
|
12.1
|
20.8
|
25.2
|
|
Combined FBS opponent record
|
36-38
|
44-38
|
37-46
|
|
Combined FBS opponent win %
|
0.486
|
0.537
|
0.446
|
|
Record vs. FBS winning teams
|
3-0
|
3-0
|
1-0
|
|
Record vs. FBS non-winning teams
|
5-0
|
6-0
|
8-0
|
|
Wins over CFP Top 25
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
All three have played an FCS opponent, and teams 1 and 3 have enjoyed a schedule largely made up of teams with losing records, ranking 19th and 23rd among the Top 25 in opponents’ win percentage, respectively. Team 3 has walloped its competition in decisive fashion while Team 2’s margin of victory is decisive as well. Team 2 posted the strongest strength of schedule of the trio. Teams 1 and 2 each have two victories over current Top 25 teams.
Team 1 is No. 6 BYU, which beat No. 16 Kansas State and No. 14 SMU but has only three victories against FBS opponents with winning records. Team 2 is top-ranked Oregon, which owns wins over No. 2 Ohio State and No. 13 Boise State but, like BYU, only three victories were against teams with winning records. Indiana is Team 3; the Hoosiers’ only victory against a team with a winning record was last month against 5-4 Nebraska.
Which one looks the strongest? It’s easily Oregon, with big wins and a dominant margin of victory. Indiana and BYU both have similar levels of strength in different areas. BYU has played a more challenging schedule, while Indiana ranks fourth among CFP teams in victory margin.
Scenario 2
These four teams each have one loss.
| Metric | Team A | Team B | Team C | Team D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Overall record
|
8-1
|
8-1
|
8-1
|
8-1
|
|
Average SOS rating
|
50
|
49.3
|
30
|
68
|
|
Average FBS point differential
|
26.8
|
19.9
|
17.2
|
27.2
|
|
Combined FBS opp. record
|
44-41
|
31-45
|
43-41
|
42-43
|
|
Combined FBS opp. win %
|
0.518
|
0.408
|
0.512
|
0.494
|
|
Record vs. FBS winning teams
|
3-1
|
1-1
|
4-1
|
5-1
|
|
Record vs. FBS non-winning teams
|
5-0
|
6-0
|
4-0
|
3-0
|
|
Wins over CFP Top 25
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
|
Losses to CFP Top 25
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
Losses to non-top 25
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
Each team enjoys a significant point differential, while teams A, C and D all have won at least three games against teams with winning records. Team B has played just two FBS opponents with winning records and split those games. Team D’s two Top 25 wins and 5-1 record against teams with winning records stand out.
Team A is No. 3 Texas, which has no wins against the current Top 25. Team B is No. 7 Tennessee, which has beaten just one team with a winning record, but it was a big one (No. 10 Alabama). Team C, also known as No. 4 Penn State, has beaten four teams with winning records but none are currently ranked. Team D (No. 8 Notre Dame) has an overall impressive resume outside of its home loss to Northern Illinois, which became bowl-eligible Wednesday night.
Notre Dame has the best resume with the worst loss, but as NIU continues winning, it becomes a smaller eyesore. Penn State is consistent, which keeps it in the discussion. Texas’ point differential allows for the eye test to push it forward. Tennessee’s numbers suggest it is in a vulnerable position should it lose to Georgia this weekend.
Scenario 3
These three teams have one loss.
| Metric | Team 1 | Team 2 | Team 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Overall record
|
8-1
|
8-1
|
8-1
|
|
Average SOS rating
|
58.7
|
70.3
|
90.3
|
|
Average FBS point differential
|
15.8
|
14.1
|
8.9
|
|
Combined FBS opp. record
|
43-33
|
41-36
|
39-37
|
|
Combined FBS opp. win %
|
0.566
|
0.532
|
0.513
|
|
Record vs. FBS winning teams
|
3-1
|
4-1
|
2-1
|
|
Record vs. FBS non-winning teams
|
4-0
|
3-0
|
5-0
|
|
Wins over CFP Top 25
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Losses to CFP Top 25
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|
Losses to non-top 25
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Their resumes suggest an uphill climb to the postseason, at least as potential at-large squads. They all rank low in strength of schedule, especially Team 3. The trio has combined for two wins against Top 25 competition and all three have a loss against a Top 25 team. But one has to peel back all the layers to see the clearer picture.
Team 1 (No. 13 Boise State) beat Team 3 (No. 18 Washington State) 45-24 earlier this year. Boise State’s only loss came to top-ranked Oregon on a last-second field goal. Should the Broncos claim the Mountain West championship, they waltz into the CFP as the highest-ranked conference champion from the Group of 5. But if Boise State were to be upset, there’s little chance the Broncos make the tournament as an at-large.
Team 2 is No. 14 SMU, and its low strength of schedule is perplexing, especially with a 4-1 record against teams with winning records. Its only loss came against No. 6 BYU, 18-15, and it owns a win against No. 19 Louisville, which has yet to play an FBS team without a winning record. In a vagabond season following the Pac-12’s mass exodus, Washington State has played just two power-conference opponents, Washington and Texas Tech, but defeated both. While Boise State and SMU can reach the CFP with conference championships, Washington State would need to qualify as an at-large. Even if the Cougars won out, that seems unlikely.
Scenario 4
These three teams each have two losses.
| Metric | Team A | Team B | Team C |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Overall record
|
7-2
|
7-2
|
7-2
|
|
Average SOS rating
|
35
|
6.3
|
55.7
|
|
Average FBS point differential
|
6.4
|
20.1
|
14.6
|
|
Combined FBS opp. record
|
44-32
|
56-26
|
39-45
|
|
Combined FBS opp. win %
|
0.579
|
0.683
|
0.464
|
|
Record vs. FBS winning teams
|
3-1
|
6-2
|
1-2
|
|
Record vs. FBS non-winning teams
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
6-0
|
|
Wins over CFP Top 25
|
1
|
4
|
0
|
|
Losses to CFP Top 25
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
Losses to non-top 25
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
One of these is not like the others, and that’s Team B: No. 10 Alabama. It has one of the best composite strength-of-schedule rankings, plays the deepest schedule, has a 20 points-per-game differential and has the most Top 25 wins (four) of any team in the rankings. The Crimson Tide have the best metrics of any two-loss team and perhaps should be ranked higher.
Team A (No. 16 Kansas State) has a decent resume at first blush, although its smallish point differential won’t give it the benefit of the doubt. The Wildcats also have a 29-point loss at No. 6 BYU and lost on Nov. 2 at Houston, which is 4-5. But K-State’s three-point win at surging No. 17 Colorado looks better by the day. Perhaps that helped the Wildcats move up in the idle week.
Team C, better known as No. 20 Clemson, has one of the lightest resumes in the Top 25. It has beaten just one team with a winning record, its opponents’ overall record is 39-45 and it has no wins against Top 25 competition. Its two losses came by an average of 21.5 points per game.
Scenario 5
These three teams have different loss totals.
| Metric | Team 1 | Team 2 | Team 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Overall record
|
9-1
|
7-2
|
6-3
|
|
Average SOS rating
|
46.7
|
3.3
|
7
|
|
Average FBS point differential
|
19.1
|
8
|
12.7
|
|
Combined FBS opp. record
|
41-45
|
42-32
|
48-37
|
|
Combined FBS opp. win %
|
0.477
|
0.568
|
0.565
|
|
Record vs. FBS winning teams
|
3-1
|
2-2
|
2-3
|
|
Record vs. FBS non-winning teams
|
5-0
|
4-0
|
4-0
|
|
Wins over CFP Top 25
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
|
Losses to CFP Top 25
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
|
Losses to non-top 25
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
Team 1 — No. 9 Miami — has played a relatively easy schedule, with its opponents posting a combined record under .500. The Hurricanes’ best win was against a 6-3 Louisville and their loss came against a 6-4 Georgia Tech.
On average, Team 2 (No. 12 Georgia) boasts the Top 25’s most difficult strength of schedule. The Bulldogs split their four games against other Top 25 teams, and they find themselves as the first team outside the CFP.
Team 3, which is No. 21 South Carolina, doesn’t have a good enough overall resume today to advance into the 12-team tournament, but the Gamecocks have the third most challenging schedule based on the ratings. The Gamecocks also face two more ranked opponents over the next three weeks.
Full top 25
Here’s a look at the full CFP Top 25 with the various metrics: point differential against FBS competition (margin), FBS opponents’ combined winning percentage, record against FBS teams above .500, record against FBS teams of .500 or lower and record against the current Playoff Top 25.
| Rnk | Team | Margin | Opp win% | > .500 | < .500 | Top 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
 Oregon (10-0) |
20.8
|
0.537
|
3-0
|
6-0
|
2-0
|
|
2
|
 Ohio State (8-1) |
27.9
|
0.553
|
4-1
|
4-0
|
1-1
|
|
3
|
 Texas (8-1) |
26.8
|
0.518
|
3-1
|
5-0
|
0-1
|
|
4
|
 Penn State (8-1) |
17.2
|
0.512
|
4-1
|
4-0
|
0-1
|
|
5
|
 Indiana (10-0) |
25.2
|
0.446
|
1-0
|
8-0
|
0-0
|
|
6
|
 BYU (9-0) |
12.1
|
0.486
|
3-0
|
5-0
|
2-0
|
|
7
|
 Tennessee (8-1) |
19.9
|
0.408
|
1-1
|
6-0
|
1-0
|
|
8
|
 Notre Dame (8-1) |
27.2
|
0.494
|
5-1
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
|
9
|
 Miami (9-1) |
19.1
|
0.477
|
3-1
|
5-0
|
1-0
|
|
10
|
 Alabama (7-2) |
20.1
|
0.683
|
6-2
|
1-0
|
4-1
|
|
11
|
 Ole Miss (8-2) |
22.4
|
0.542
|
4-1
|
3-1
|
2-1
|
|
12
|
 Georgia (7-2) |
8
|
0.568
|
2-2
|
4-0
|
2-2
|
|
13
|
 Boise State (8-1) |
15.8
|
0.566
|
3-1
|
4-0
|
1-1
|
|
14
|
 SMU (8-1) |
14.1
|
0.532
|
4-1
|
3-0
|
1-1
|
|
15
|
 Texas A&M (7-2) |
5.6
|
0.603
|
4-2
|
2-0
|
2-2
|
|
16
|
 Kansas State (7-2) |
6.4
|
0.579
|
3-1
|
3-1
|
1-1
|
|
17
|
 Colorado (7-2) |
10.5
|
0.554
|
4-2
|
2-0
|
0-1
|
|
18
|
 Washington State (8-1) |
8.9
|
0.513
|
2-1
|
5-0
|
0-1
|
|
19
|
 Louisville (6-3) |
5.8
|
0.730
|
5-3
|
0-0
|
1-3
|
|
20
|
 Clemson (7-2) |
14.6
|
0.464
|
1-2
|
6-0
|
0-2
|
|
21
|
 South Carolina (6-3) |
12.7
|
0.565
|
2-3
|
4-0
|
1-3
|
|
22
|
 LSU (6-3) |
3.5
|
0.616
|
3-2
|
2-1
|
2-2
|
|
23
|
 Missouri (7-2) |
4.4
|
0.547
|
3-2
|
3-0
|
0-2
|
|
24
|
 Army (9-0) |
23.6
|
0.329
|
2-0
|
6-0
|
0-0
|
|
25
|
 Tulane (8-2) |
19
|
0.470
|
2-1
|
5-1
|
0-1
|
(Photo: Loren Orr / Getty Images)
