The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff that kicked off this weekend featured an unwelcome carryover from its four-team predecessor.
Bad games.
All four first-round matchups were decided by double digits. Over 120 combined second-half minutes, the score was within one touchdown for all of 55 seconds. ESPN’s win probability never dipped below 87 percent in the fourth quarter for Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State or Texas.
The performances — like ACC runner-up SMU, the last at-large team in, losing 38-10 to Penn State — will be scrutinized by fans and administrators trying to prove their points and shape future models. But they also require historical context.
Though last year’s semifinals were close, in the four-team Playoff era (2014-23), the average margin of victory in the first round was 17.9 points. Add national title games, and the margin was 18.6.
The average spread in this year’s first round was 19.3 points. Worse, but not drastically different. The difference in yardage this weekend (121.8 per game) was actually closer than the first round in the last model (125).
A pair of garbage-time touchdowns made the first on-campus game of the 12-team era — Indiana’s 27-17 loss to Notre Dame on Friday night — look closer than it was. But it was still tighter than the first CFP game a decade ago: Oregon’s 59-20 demolition of undefeated Florida State in the Rose Bowl. That semifinal’s enduring image was Seminoles star quarterback Jameis Winston slipping and fumbling backward for a 58-yard scoop-and-score Ducks touchdown. Not exactly the pinnacle of elite competition.
Clemson made its trip to Texas interesting by fighting back to make it a one-possession game in the fourth quarter. But the Tigers were dominated on the ground (outrushed 292-76), and a Texas win never felt in jeopardy. As soon as Clemson cut the lead to seven, the Longhorns’ Jaydon Blue broke off a 77-yard touchdown run.
It was Clemson’s 11th CFP game. The Tigers’ first 10 were decided by an average of 17.7 points. Clemson lost by 14 Saturday.
Ohio State’s 42-17 obliteration of Tennessee was perhaps the most shocking, as the Buckeyes outgained the Volunteers 205-16 in the first quarter. But Ohio State’s 21-10 halftime advantage wasn’t as big as its lead over Clemson (35-14) through two quarters of a Sugar Bowl triumph in January 2021. Though the Buckeyes won by 25 Saturday, it was merely the 10th-largest CFP blowout (Ohio State even had losses by 31 and 28 in the four-team era).
| Season | Winner | Loser | Score | Margin | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2022
|
 Georgia |
TCU
|
65-7
|
58
|
Champ
|
|
2014
|
 Oregon |
Florida State
|
59-20
|
39
|
Semi
|
|
2015
|
 Alabama |
Michigan State
|
38-0
|
38
|
Semi
|
|
2019
|
 LSU |
Oklahoma
|
63-28
|
35
|
Semi
|
|
2016
|
 Clemson |
Ohio State
|
31-0
|
31
|
Semi
|
|
2024
|
 Penn State |
SMU
|
38-10
|
28
|
First
|
|
2020
|
Alabama |
Ohio State
|
52-24
|
28
|
Champ
|
|
2018
|
Clemson |
Alabama
|
44-16
|
28
|
Champ
|
|
2018
|
Clemson |
Notre Dame
|
30-3
|
27
|
Semi
|
|
2024
|
 Ohio State |
Tennessee
|
42-17
|
25
|
First
|
|
2021
|
Georgia |
Michigan
|
34-11
|
23
|
Semi
|
|
2014
|
Ohio State |
Oregon
|
42-20
|
22
|
Champ
|
|
2023
|
 Michigan |
Washington
|
34-13
|
21
|
Champ
|
|
2021
|
Alabama |
Cincinnati
|
27-6
|
21
|
Semi
|
|
2020
|
Ohio State |
Clemson
|
49-28
|
21
|
Semi
|
|
2015
|
Clemson |
Oklahoma
|
37-17
|
20
|
Semi
|
As much as Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin — who made sarcastic social media remarks during the “really exciting” Indiana loss and “riveting” Penn State romp — and others want to gripe or snicker about the system, the issue isn’t new. It’s not a product of the electric home-field advantages that were on display; teams were blown out at neutral NFL stadiums and with reduced crowds during the 2020 COVID-19 season.
It’s not a product of shakier teams with lesser reputations making the field, either. Florida State, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Michigan State suffered larger first-round losses in the old era than SMU and Indiana did this weekend.
And it’s not unique to college football. The average margin of victory in the Wild Card round of last season’s NFL playoffs was 17.3 points. Was anyone grumbling about whether the Philadelphia Eagles deserved to make the field after their 32-9 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The lopsided results don’t lend themselves to easy big-picture takeaways. A poor showing by 11-win SMU didn’t help the ACC’s case against SEC fans who thought Alabama, Ole Miss or South Carolina belonged. But the dud by a team that finished higher in the SEC standings than all of them (Tennessee) nullified that talking point.
If any fans are clamoring for the older system, those days weren’t much better. From 2014-23, there were almost as many blowouts of 20-plus points (22) in CFP/New Year’s Six bowls as there were games decided by single digits (26). The average national title game in the BCS era was decided by two touchdowns.
Just because other postseasons have been lackluster doesn’t mean future ones have to be, of course. The conference commissioners and school administrators that organize the system will and should consider future changes when this Playoff winds down next month in Atlanta. Expansion (likely to 14 teams) is one possibility. Giving first-round byes to the top four teams, regardless of whether they won their conference, is worth discussing. So is reseeding the teams after the first round.
But there’s no need to overreact after the first, small sample of uninteresting games. This first round, unfortunately, wasn’t much different than usual.
(Photo of Kaytron Allen: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
