Playoff, Playoff, Playoff. All we ever talk about is the College Football Playoff — what this game means for the Playoff, whether this team can make the Playoff, and whether this other team is already out of the Playoff. Everything always comes back to what it means for the Playoff.
Well, yeah.
It’s not that nothing else matters. But the CFP will be what matters the most because it’s what will decide the national champion and because the teams that make it in the field will be involved in important games, rather than glorified exhibition games that players will opt out of while coaches pretend to care as they hit up their agents to see if they can get the Florida job.
That will be the ultimate benefit of Playoff expansion, keeping more teams and fan bases engaged deeper into the season. Some call it a bug in the system that a two-loss team will still have hope. Perhaps they forgot about two-loss LSU winning the national championship in 2007. More spots means more relevant games down the stretch, more excitement and …
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You know what, let’s not re-litigate this. The 12-team Playoff is here, and it’s October, so let’s check in on where the SEC’s teams stand.
The most important thing you will read in this story is that the at-large bids are not determined in a vacuum. We cannot sit here and say for certain that, say, Missouri needs to go 11-1 or 10-2 because we don’t know what the rest of the field will look like. We don’t know whether the rest of the field will be weak enough that the SEC will get five bids or so strong that the SEC will get fewer. The conference champ will get a bye, and everyone else will be competing for seven at-large bids with the rest of the country.
There’s plenty we don’t know about how the committee will handle schedule strength, quality wins, bad losses and the eye test or whether it will just lean on the best records. What we can do is look at each team’s first month and the remaining schedules and evaluate my percentages for teams to get there (and check out Austin Mock’s official projection model page with mathematical percentages that might differ from mine):
Texas (5-0)
Quality win: at Michigan
Remaining big games: vs. Oklahoma, Georgia, at Texas A&M
Be careful: at Vanderbilt, at Arkansas, vs. Kentucky
The Longhorns played with their food in the first half against Mississippi State but otherwise have looked like a Playoff shoo-in. They still have some hazards, but between how Steve Sarkisian’s team has looked and the remaining schedule, this is the SEC team you feel most sure about.
Chances of getting in: 90 percent
Alabama (4-0)
Quality wins: at Wisconsin, vs. Georgia
Remaining big games: at Tennessee, vs. Missouri, at LSU, at Oklahoma
Be careful: at Vanderbilt, vs. South Carolina, vs. Auburn
A look at that schedule brings home how important it was for Alabama to pull out the Georgia game. As good as Jalen Milroe, Ryan Williams and company look right now, a team capable of blowing a 28-point lead is capable of losing any of those big games or stumbling in one of the others. There’s a lot of talk about what the committee would do with a Georgia team that goes 9-3, but what about an Alabama team that loses at Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma but has wins over Georgia, Missouri and Wisconsin? (My guess is Alabama will finish with at least 10 wins and make it a moot point.)
Chances of getting in: 70 percent
Tennessee (4-0)
Quality wins: vs. NC State, at Oklahoma
Remaining big games: vs. Alabama, at Georgia
Be careful: at Arkansas, vs. Kentucky, at Vanderbilt
Arguably, Tennessee can just be competitive against Alabama and Georgia, then avoid stumbling in the other games and feel good about its chances. But that might be leaving too much to chance, especially if there don’t end up being many quality wins among the 10. The eye test figures to matter, and if Tennessee keeps rolling over teams, 10-2 should be good enough.
Chances of getting in: 60 percent
Georgia (3-1)
Quality win: vs. Clemson
Quality loss: at Alabama
Remaining big games: at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee
Be careful: vs. Florida, at Georgia Tech
It took one loss for others to pick up on what has been evident for a while: Georgia’s schedule made it hazardous to assume it would make this year’s Playoff. If the Bulldogs finish 10-2, they’re in. If they go 9-3, they will have at least one quality conference win and should root for Clemson to win the ACC. Because this is Georgia, if it even squeaks into the Playoff, it will be the team nobody wants to play. The question is whether it can squeak in.
And, again, this doesn’t happen in a vacuum. So just to be sure, perhaps Georgia fans should start actively rooting against Notre Dame, for instance.
Chances of getting in: 51 percent
Missouri (4-0)
Quality win: vs. Boston College
Remaining big games: at Texas A&M, at Alabama, vs. Oklahoma
Be careful: at South Carolina, vs. Arkansas
BC is on the bubble as a quality win, but the Eagles are 4-1, so we’ll give it to Mizzou for now. Still, it has been apparent since before the season that with its schedule, Mizzou probably needs to go 11-1 to be safe, and that hasn’t changed. This week’s game at Texas A&M is rather massive. A loss there and at Alabama might doom the Tigers’ chances unless, of course, the total field becomes weak. Missouri fans should be rooting, for example, for the ACC to experience carnage such that it is a one-bid league.
Chances of getting in: 40 percent
Ole Miss (4-1)
Quality wins: None yet
Bad loss: vs. Kentucky
Remaining big games: at LSU, vs. Oklahoma, vs. Georgia
Be careful: at South Carolina, at Arkansas, at Florida
Bad home losses by themselves are by no means disqualifying. Five years ago, Georgia lost as a 22-point home favorite to South Carolina but still finished 11-1 in the regular season and would have made the four-team CFP if it had beaten LSU in the SEC Championship Game. So the unknown is whether the Kentucky game portends something bad about this team or was just a bad day. At a minimum, it reduces Ole Miss’ margin for error: Before, winning one of those three big games and sweeping the rest would have put it in a good position. Now the Rebels probably need to win two of those three and not slip up anywhere else.
Oh, and get help elsewhere, such as the Big 12 being a one-bid league.
Chances of getting in: 35 percent
LSU (4-1)
Quality wins: None yet
Quality loss: vs. USC
Remaining big games: vs. Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, vs. Alabama, vs. Oklahoma
Be careful: at Arkansas, at Florida, vs. Vanderbilt
Brian Kelly’s team essentially has done nothing too impressive, yet it’s still hanging around, with a chance to make noise if it can play like a team with “LSU” on its helmets should play. That’s no guarantee, obviously, but the schedule offers some opportunities, and finishing at 10-2 would put the Tigers in good shape.
As would, incidentally, the Big Ten being only a three-bid league. Or even two.
Chances of getting in: 15 percent
Texas A&M (4-1)
Quality wins: None yet
Sort-of-quality loss: vs. Notre Dame
Remaining big games: vs. Missouri, vs. LSU, vs. Texas
Be careful: at South Carolina, at Auburn
Texas A&M has been even less impressive than LSU, but the schedule offers just as much boom-or-bust opportunity. The three hardest games are at home, and of course that includes Texas, so … this is unlikely, but indulge the thought … what if the Aggies finish 10-2, with their only losses to Texas and Notre Dame?
Well, it probably depends on what the rest of the field looks like. Thus, the Aggies should be, well, rooting for Notre Dame to help their schedule strength but hoping for carnage in all the other conferences.
Chances of getting in: 7 percent
Oklahoma (4-1)
Quality wins: None yet
Quality loss: vs. Tennessee
Remaining big games: Texas, at Ole Miss, at Missouri, vs. Alabama, at LSU
Be careful: vs. South Carolina
The Sooners have the record to say they’re contenders, but the schedule says: Whoa, this looks like a 7-5 team given major offensive questions, especially at quarterback. But hey, if the Sooners somehow figure things out, there are chances for some eye-popping wins.
Chances of getting in: 4 percent
Next in line
Kentucky (3-2): It has looked like a Playoff team the past two games and seems likely to be 6-2 heading into November, with games at Tennessee and Texas. There’s always a chance, but let’s talk if this team is 7-2 after that Tennessee game on Nov. 2.
South Carolina (3-1): The next four games are against Ole Miss, at Alabama, at Oklahoma and against Texas A&M. Then there’s a trip to Vanderbilt, Missouri at home and at Clemson. Realistically, the hope is just to pull out a bowl bid, which would be an accomplishment with that schedule.
Arkansas (3-2): The Hogs get Tennessee this week, so this can be revisited. In the meantime, the chances for Sam Pittman to get enough wins to save his job are higher, depending on how many wins that needs to be.
Vanderbilt (2-2): Hey, it gets Alabama this week. And it still has Texas, LSU and Tennessee. But the Dores have been so refreshingly competitive that we won’t rule them out yet.
The others*
*Technically, these teams are not eliminated because it’s still mathematically possible for everyone to finish 4-4, and somehow these teams could win tiebreakers to go to the SEC Championship Game. Or there’s a chance the earth could crash into the sun: Auburn (2-3), Florida (2-2), Mississippi State (1-4).
(Top photos of Steve Sarkisian, left, and Jalen Milroe: Tim Warner, Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
