Every reaction to every College Football Playoff ranking should start with a disclaimer, as explained by The Athletic’s Chris Vannini after he went through a mock selection process before the season: The 13-person committee does not talk everything through and agree on the rankings.
They talk everything through, of course. But they vote individually, exactly the same as the NCAA basketball tournament committees each year. Just as Tuesday’s presidential election was about counting votes, not the outcome of some conclusive discussion of the candidates — boy, wouldn’t that be fun — these folks putting together the first 12-team Playoff can ultimately retreat to their biases. Each one punches in his or her choices, hidden to the others, and can lean on whatever he or she values most.
Which means that every time rankings come out and someone on the outside complains, which is 100 percent guaranteed, someone on the inside may be feeling exactly the same way. I sure hope a few of them hate what some of their cohorts have done to BYU and can explain in weeks to come why it makes no sense.
ESPN’s Booger McFarland started Tuesday’s broadcast by calling Indiana “the most disrespected team in the country,” but the rankings soon said otherwise. BYU clearly deserves that title today.
Kalani Sitake’s Cougars are 8-0 and have one of the best wins in the field — on the road against SMU, which was the first team out at No. 13 in the initial CFP rankings — yet came in No. 9. ESPN’s Greg McElroy called that “painfully low.”
NUMBER NINE. pic.twitter.com/FqrvcfkZ0E
— BYU FOOTBALL (@BYUfootball) November 6, 2024
Yes, it means BYU is the No. 4 seed in the initial bracket because the four highest-ranked conference champions get the top four seeds and the byes that go with them. But Boise State is ranked No. 12, not far behind, which means the Broncos in theory have a chance to be one of the four highest-ranked champs and get a bye.
That would mean BYU, or someone else in a Big 12 that is sabotaging itself, missing out on the bye as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.
Boise State has no wins over teams ranked in the initial top 25. Boise State’s schedule is ranked No. 83 in The Athletic’s strength of schedule metric. Boise State has an excellent loss — 37-34 at the highest-ranked team, Oregon — and a good win at UNLV. But this feels closer than it should be, considering both the 18-15 BYU win at SMU and 38-9 rout of Kansas State, which came in No. 19 in the initial rankings.
Also, those two wins should put BYU ahead of No. 8 Indiana. Those two wins should put BYU ahead of No. 4 Miami.
BYU’s strength of schedule is No. 63. That’s better than Miami’s 65 and Indiana’s 83. ESPN has IU at 103. To be clear, those schedule strength numbers are not the same ones used by the committee, which are not shared publicly.
But go with the wins. Miami’s best is a wild 52-45 decision at No. 22 Louisville. Indiana has nothing on the board right now in terms of top-25 teams.
Indiana is the best story and is arguably playing as well as anyone. The Hoosiers are beating FBS opponents by a nation-best 27.8 points per game. Put Indiana and BYU on a neutral field right now and I’m going with Indiana. Clearly, this is how the committee — or enough of the committee — viewed things.
But that, to me, should be a tiebreaker that is considered after actual achievement. These teams are not tied in terms of achievement. Nor are BYU and Miami. Nor are BYU and No. 6 Penn State (No. 30 SOS), which has its traditional, strong loss to Ohio State and zero top-25 wins. Nor are BYU and No. 7 Tennessee (No. 59 SOS), which has a better win (over No. 11 Alabama) but also has a loss. At a bad Arkansas team.
If the conferences these teams are in mean nothing, as the committee claims, this makes no sense. And to be clear, conference affiliation can’t matter, especially now that these leagues are bigger than a college freshman lecture class and the schedules are wildly imbalanced.
Committee chair and Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel addressed the Miami-BYU comparison on a call with reporters, saying: “It really came down to more of the eye test as it relates to looking at both teams. And the committee as we ranked them saw them in that fashion, and it came out in that order.”
“Game control” is buzzy term in these matters, and Indiana has demonstrated it and then some. But Miami? The improbable escape at Cal? The improbable escape at home against Virginia Tech? The Hurricanes are a ton of fun and lethal offensively, with a quarterback in Cam Ward who might win the Heisman. But this team has flaws.
That 18-15 win for BYU over SMU was a yawner and didn’t mean much at the time. It means much more now. Or should. The Cougars certainly had their issues in a 38-35 home win over Oklahoma State. A colleague Tuesday night referred to BYU as a “fraudy” team.
Maybe. But undefeated with a 29-point win over the No. 19 team, plus a road win over No. 13? That’s a top-five resume at this point. And that’s what we’re doing here, right?
Talk amongst yourselves, committee members, and don’t be afraid to change your mind. Or to speak loudly and clearly to the ones in the room who got this one wrong and need their minds changed.
(Photo of Jake Retzlaff: Rob Gray / Imagn Images)
