The SEC has a pair of big games this weekend and my model likes the road team in both games. In Georgia-Ole Miss my projection model has the Bulldogs by five points. In Alabama-LSU, my model has the Crimson Tide by two.
It does look like these could be close games, which is exciting considering how important they are for the College Football Playoff race. In another noteworthy game, my model has Indiana by 10 points against Michigan. That’s a smaller number than the spread (-14.5), but IU is still clearly favored.
The biggest difference of the week is Army–North Texas. Army quarterback Bryson Daily missed last week’s game due to injury and could be out again. I did not adjust for him being out, which is why there’s a big gap between my projection (Army by 14.5) and the betting spread (Army -4.5).
For context, the model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on Week 11 of the college football season, check out my updated CFP projections and my best bets for the week.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.
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College football Week 11 score projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
| Team | xMOV | BETMGM Line | xTOTAL | BETMGM TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 App State |
|
|
64
|
62.5
|
 Coastal Caro. |
0.5
|
1.5
|
|
|
 FAU |
|
|
53
|
58.5
|
 E. Carolina |
-3
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 Cal |
|
|
54
|
54.5
|
 Wake Forest |
6.5
|
7
|
|
|
 Rice |
|
|
52.5
|
51
|
 Memphis |
-13.5
|
-9
|
|
|
 Iowa |
|
|
41
|
44.5
|
 UCLA |
7.5
|
8
|
|
|
 New Mexico |
|
|
64
|
66.5
|
 San Diego St. |
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Purdue |
|
|
49.5
|
53.5
|
 Ohio State |
-35
|
-37.5
|
|
|
 Miami |
|
|
60
|
63.5
|
 Georgia Tech |
14
|
11.5
|
|
|
 Florida |
|
|
49
|
47.5
|
 Texas |
-21
|
-21.5
|
|
|
 Syracuse |
|
|
55.5
|
52.5
|
 Boston Coll. |
2
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 West Virginia |
|
|
54
|
56.5
|
 Cincinnati |
-6
|
-4.5
|
|
|
 Minnesota |
|
|
49.5
|
46.5
|
 Rutgers |
5.5
|
6.5
|
|
|
 Navy |
|
|
54
|
56.5
|
 South Florida |
5
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Texas State |
|
|
53
|
48.5
|
 La.-Monroe |
10
|
7.5
|
|
|
 Liberty |
|
|
56
|
54.5
|
 Middle Tenn. |
13.5
|
11
|
|
|
 UConn |
|
|
57.5
|
55.5
|
 UAB |
8
|
6.5
|
|
|
 Marshall |
|
|
52
|
54.5
|
 Southern Miss |
12.5
|
13.5
|
|
|
 Georgia |
|
|
57.5
|
54.5
|
 Ole Miss |
5
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Michigan |
|
|
45
|
49.5
|
 Indiana |
-10
|
-14.5
|
|
|
 Iowa State |
|
|
54
|
50.5
|
 Kansas |
3.5
|
3
|
|
|
 Army |
|
|
66
|
63.5
|
 North Texas |
14.5
|
4.5
|
|
|
 Clemson |
|
|
54.5
|
53.5
|
 Virginia Tech |
8.5
|
5.5
|
|
|
 San Jose St. |
|
|
59
|
55.5
|
 Oregon State |
-2
|
-3
|
|
|
 Duke |
|
|
49.5
|
51.5
|
 NC State |
-1
|
-3
|
|
|
 Georgia State |
|
|
52.5
|
54.5
|
 James Madison |
-17.5
|
-16.5
|
|
|
 Colorado |
|
|
60
|
62.5
|
 Texas Tech |
2.5
|
4
|
|
|
 Kennesaw St. |
|
|
42
|
42.5
|
 UTEP |
-6.5
|
-4
|
|
|
 Temple |
|
|
51.5
|
49.5
|
 Tulane |
-25.5
|
-26.5
|
|
|
 So. Carolina |
|
|
45
|
45.5
|
 Vanderbilt |
4
|
4.5
|
|
|
 J’ville State |
|
|
53
|
55.5
|
 La. Tech |
7
|
10
|
|
|
 Arkansas St. |
|
|
62
|
60.5
|
 Louisiana |
-11.5
|
-15.5
|
|
|
 W. Kentucky |
|
|
54.5
|
52.5
|
 New Mexico St. |
19.5
|
18.5
|
|
|
 Maryland |
|
|
55.5
|
57.5
|
 Oregon |
-22.5
|
-24.5
|
|
|
 Miss. State |
|
|
58
|
61.5
|
 Tennessee |
-26
|
-23.5
|
|
|
 UCF |
|
|
53.5
|
55.5
|
 Arizona State |
-4.5
|
-3
|
|
|
 Oklahoma St. |
|
|
67.5
|
66.5
|
 TCU |
-8.5
|
-11.5
|
|
|
 Florida State |
|
|
42
|
42.5
|
 Notre Dame |
-24
|
-25.5
|
|
|
 Alabama |
|
|
57
|
58.5
|
 LSU |
2
|
3
|
|
|
 Oklahoma |
|
|
39
|
41.5
|
 Missouri |
-3
|
3
|
|
|
 Washington |
|
|
47
|
41.5
|
 Penn State |
-13
|
-13.5
|
|
|
 Nevada |
|
|
57
|
60.5
|
 Boise State |
-22
|
-24.5
|
|
|
 Virginia |
|
|
55
|
57.5
|
 Pitt |
-8
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 UNLV |
|
|
52
|
49.5
|
 Hawai’i |
15.5
|
13.5
|
|
|
 Fresno State |
|
|
40.5
|
40.5
|
 Air Force |
12
|
10.5
|
|
|
 BYU |
|
|
43
|
40.5
|
 Utah |
5.5
|
3
|
|
|
 Utah State |
|
|
70
|
70.5
|
 Wash. State |
-21
|
20.5
|
|
|
(Photo of Jaxson Dart: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)
