College football Week 12 model projections: Predicted point differentials, totals for every game

We’ve hit the point of the season where every game matters for playoff-hopeful college football teams. And Week 12 has some big games — and with them comes some value on the betting side. My model likes the over on Georgia-Tennessee by about a half point and Georgia to cover, too.

As for the games with the biggest favorites from the top 25, my model is even more bullish than the books on Ohio State, Penn State and Texas and sees Oregon–Wisconsin going over.

For context, the model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.

For more on Week 12 of the college football season, check out my updated CFP projections and my best bets for the week.

Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.

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College football Week 12 score projections

XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.

Team	xMOV	BETMGM Line	xTOTAL	BETMGM TOTAL
Wyoming			48.5	46.5
Colorado St.	-10.5	-9.5
North Texas			69.5	72.5
UTSA	-1	1.5
UCLA			49	46.5
Washington	-3.5	-4
Houston			48	46.5
Arizona	-4.5	-1.5
Ohio State			50	44.5
Northwestern	30.5	28.5
Texas			55	57.5
Arkansas	13	12.5
Utah			42	45.5
Colorado	-10	-11
Clemson			54	52.5
Pitt	10	11.5
Tulane			54	51.5
Navy	3	7
Liberty			53.5	51.5
UMass	17	14
La. Tech			49.5	52.5
W. Kentucky	-12	-12.5
La. Monroe			44	46.5
Auburn	-25	-24.5
Coastal Car.			54.5	56.5
Marshall	-8.5	-8.5
FIU			55.5	58.5
J’ville State	-15	-12.5
FAU			52	51.5
Temple	2	-2.5
Michigan St.			51.5	47.5
Illinois	-1	-2.5
Syracuse			56.5	57.5
California	-10	-10
Sam Houston			44	42.5
Kennesaw St.	16.5	17
Hawai’i			60	60.5
Utah State	0.5	2.5
Penn State			46.5	50.5
Purdue	29.5	28.5
Virginia			51.5	50.5
Notre Dame	-22	-22.5
Boston Coll.			55.5	54.5
SMU	-16.5	-19.5
Louisville			61	57.5
Stanford	17	20.5
LSU			59	55.5
Florida	6	4
Oregon State			44	45.5
Air Force	5	3.5
South Florida			49	54.5
Charlotte	4	3
Nebraska			47	50.5
USC	-10	-7.5
Baylor			61.5	59.5
West Virginia	-1	1.5
Troy			56	54.5
Georgia So.	-7.5	-7.5
James Madison			48	51.5
Old Dominion	4.5	2.5
Missouri			41	41.5
So. Carolina	-14	-14
Arkansas St.			57	59.5
Georgia St.	-0.5	-3
Rutgers			49.5	52.5
Maryland	-6	-5.5
Boise State			59.5	61.5
San José St.	11.5	14
Arizona St.			51	51.5
Kansas State	-8.5	-7.5
South Alabama			59	59.5
Louisiana	-6.5	-7
Southern Miss.			56.5	56.5
Texas State	-24	-27.5
Oregon			53.5	51.5
Wisconsin	13.5	13.5
Tennessee			48	47.5
Georgia	-10	-9.5
New Mexico St.			53	54.5
Texas A&M	-40.5	-39.5
Cincinnati			56	53.5
Iowa State	-9.5	-7.5
Wake Forest			64.5	63.5
North Carolina	-13.5	-11
UAB			63	62.5
Memphis	-19.5	-15.5
Washington St.			73	71.5
New Mexico	11	10.5
Kansas			59.5	56.5
BYU	-3.5	-2.5
San Diego St.			56.5	54.5
UNLV	-20.5	-20.5