Few, if any, expected three heavily favored top-15 SEC teams to lose last week and throw the College Football Playoff rankings into chaos.
But at least I saw one of those upsets coming: Florida over Ole Miss. It played out just as I predicted: Jaxson Dart was ordinary. It marked my second correct upset pick in a row (fifth this season), and I matched my season-best 8-1 record picking winners straight up.
I’m 79-38 for the season (not against the spread because that would be absurd).
We’ll get to my hits and misses below, but first, my apologies to fans of Ohio State, Michigan, Auburn and Alabama: I didn’t bother to pick your boring matchups.
Here are this week’s picks, starting with the stat stuffers:
Most passing yards
Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders has consistently been one of the best quarterbacks in college football when pressured, which is quite often (33.3 percent of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus). He has completed 52.7 percent of his passes in such situations (averaging 7.7 yards per attempt) with seven touchdowns and only three interceptions.
Oklahoma State’s pass defense ranks 128th and averages only 1.73 sacks per game (86th). Mike Gundy’s team is winless in Big 12 play and is a 17-point underdog in Boulder. Expect Sanders to put on a show, with 400-plus passing yards and four touchdowns as the Buffaloes wrap up a 9-3 season and hope for help to get to the Big 12 title game.
Most rushing yards
It’s not a guarantee, but Arizona State is in great shape to grab a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game with a win at rival Arizona on Saturday. Cam Skattebo has played a huge role in the Sun Devils’ rise and is averaging 146.5 yards per game against FBS teams with a .500 record or worse.
The Wildcats are 4-7 and rank 93rd against the run. ASU coach Kenny Dillingham is going to give his workhorse back the ball early and often. Skattebo, who began his career at Sacramento State, runs for 190-plus yards and two touchdowns, and Arizona State covers the 8.5-point spread.
Most receiving yards
Iowa State’s Jayden Higgins is averaging eight catches and 113 receiving yards per game in November, and his Cyclones will be close to clinching a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game with a win over Kansas State.
The Wildcats have a shot to get to Arlington, too, but they need to win and get some help. They enter Saturday’s game in Ames as three-point underdogs and ranked 90th in pass defense. I’m counting on Higgins to put up big numbers (10 catches, 180 yards, two TDs) and for the Cyclones to win a one-score game.
Five big games
No. 8 Tennessee (-11) at Vanderbilt
The Commodores have lost three of their last four but present an interesting final Playoff hurdle for Josh Heupel’s team. Tennessee has won five in a row in this in-state series, all by 18 points or more.
The key here is Vanderbilt’s offense has slowed down quite a bit as the season has progressed. The Commodores averaged 37 points through the first four games and 27 over the next four but are scoring an SEC-low 13.7 points per game in November. The Volunteers keep Diego Pavia in check (200 total yards, one TD) and cover the spread to lock up a Playoff spot.
No. 15 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson (-2.5)
A Clemson win could go a long way in helping the ACC secure at least two spots in the Playoff. But the Tigers can lose on Saturday and still reach the 12-team field. They would need Syracuse to beat Miami on Saturday, and then Dabo Swinney’s team would need to beat SMU in the ACC Championship Game — and hope it is still one of the five highest-ranked conference champs (basically ranked ahead of Tulane, assuming the Green Wave beat Memphis this week and win the AAC title).
The Gamecocks, meanwhile, have won five in a row since their two-point loss at Alabama in mid-October. What’s changed? The offense. South Carolina is averaging 513 yards and an SEC-leading 40.5 points per game in November. The memorable month for Shane Beamer continues with a one-score win in Death Valley.
No. 5 Notre Dame (-7.5) at USC
All five of USC’s losses have been decided by seven points or fewer and only one came at home (in overtime against top-five Penn State). The issue for Lincoln Riley hasn’t been defense. USC is allowing only 27.8 points per game in its losses, down from 41.6 a year ago.
The Irish, meanwhile, are averaging an FBS-leading 41 points and 215.6 yards rushing in seven games against Power 5 teams. USC’s defense will keep it close, but the Irish run for 200-plus yards and clinch a Playoff spot with another quality road win.
No. 6 Miami (-10.5) at Syracuse
It made a lot of sense to go with Kyle McCord or Cam Ward — Nos. 1 and. 2 nationally in passing — to lead all FBS quarterbacks in passing yards this week. But I went in another direction (with Sanders). Why? Miami (35th nationally) and Syracuse (45th) are actually not that bad against the pass.
What has gotten Syracuse beat this year are turnovers and an inability to run the ball. In their three losses, the Orange turned it over eight times and averaged 23.7 yards rushing. In their eight wins, they committed six turnovers and averaged 118.3 rushing yards.
Will Miami’s defense be up to the task? The Canes find a way into the ACC Championship Game on an Andy Borregales game-winning field goal.
No. 3 Texas (-6) at No. 20 Texas A&M
I wrote in the preseason that the Aggies would have a chance to clinch a spot in the SEC title game with a win over Texas but would lose on a late touchdown pass by backup Arch Manning. Little did I know at the time that Manning could end up starting this game due to Quinn Ewers’ ankle injury.
In the end, it may not matter who plays quarterback. Mike Elko’s team has given up 44 and 43 points (31 in regulation) in its last two SEC games, both losses. Texas, meanwhile, has been much better at protecting the football since coughing it up four times in the loss to Georgia. Texas gets its much-needed Top 25 win and punches a ticket to the SEC title game on a late Manning TD pass.
Upset alert
Oregon State at No. 11 Boise State (-20.5)
Ashton Jeanty has been sensational (2,062 rushing yards, 27 TDs) and has averaged more yards against two Power 5 opponents (226) than non-Power 5 opponents (186). This week’s opponent, the Pac-2 champion, ranks 103rd against the run.
My fear here for the Broncos is Jeanty could be running out of steam. He’s already carried it 275 times. Last week, he had 19 attempts — the second fewest against an FBS opponent this season — and Boise escaped with a 17-13 win at Wyoming (2-9).
The Beavers throw a little more chaos into the CFP selection process with the road win.
My Week 13 report card
I had only one major miss last week: picking Colorado to beat Kansas.
I said Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson would each pick off Sanders once but Travis Hunter would get the last laugh on a late touchdown catch to lift the Buffaloes to a one-score win. Sanders didn’t throw a pick and Hunter had eight catches for 125 yards and two scores. Kansas won 37-21.
The rest of my straight-up winners hit, but the oddly specific portion of the column was again very mediocre because I didn’t hit any stat stuffers.
I said Ohio State would cover a 12.5-point spread in its top-five matchup against Indiana behind two Jeremiah Smith touchdown catches. Smith caught only three passes for 34 yards, but the Buckeyes beat the Hoosiers 38-15.
I picked Arizona State to beat BYU at home behind 130-plus rushing yards and two touchdowns from Skattebo. The Sun Devils won 28-23 behind 147 yards and three touchdowns from Skattebo.
I said Penn State would find a way to survive at Minnesota behind three combined touchdowns from Tyler Warren and Drew Allar. The Nittany Lions won 26-25. Allar threw a touchdown pass and ran for another, but Warren didn’t score.
I said Army would keep it respectable against Notre Dame but the Irish would hold them to under 250 yards rushing and win by two scores. Army ran for 207 yards, and Notre Dame won easily, 49-14.
I said Miami’s Ward would throw for 400-plus yards and four touchdowns but the Hurricanes wouldn’t be able to cover the 23.5-point spread against Wake Forest. A 22-point outburst over the final eight minutes helped Miami to a 42-14 win, and Ward finished with 280 yards and two touchdowns. Ward was 28th in passing yards among FBS QBs last week.
I said Jacksonville State’s Tre Stewart would lead all rushers with 170-plus yards and score the game-winning touchdown against Sam Houston to help Rich Rodriguez’s Gamecocks clinch a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game. Stewart ran for 99 yards, quarterback Tyler Huff ran 177 and three scores and Jacksonville State won 21-11.
I said Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin Jr. would lead all pass catchers in yards (190-plus, two touchdowns) and help the Falcons cover an 11.5-point spread against Ball State. Fannin finished with nine catches for 125 yards and one touchdown in a 38-13 win.
(Photo of Trent Howard and Cade Klubnik: Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)
