The preseason guesses about the Washington Commanders were, on average, less than accurate. Here’s hoping predictions for the second half for Jayden Daniels and the NFC East leaders land closer to the mark.
Terry McLaurin receives second Pro Bowl selection
There’s a difference between being a Pro Bowl-caliber player and one receiving such honors. McLaurin showed he warranted such consideration starting with his 2019 NFL debut, when he had five catches for 125 yards and a touchdown Week 1 in Philadelphia. To date, he’s garnered a Pro Bowl nod only in 2022.
Blame the merry-go-round of quarterbacks before Daniels or offensive coordinators not named Kliff Kingsbury. Indeed, Washington’s team struggles took some shine off McLaurin’s work. His statistical pace will give him a shot at setting new career highs in the main categories; one more touchdown catch will match his personal best of seven in his rookie season. That Daniels is the most-talked-about rookie, if not player, in the NFL means consistent views of the quarterback’s connection with his top receiver.
However, a Pro Bowl selection is also about how a player compares to the field. In that regard, among NFC wide receivers, McLaurin ranks:
• Fourth in receiving yards (598; Justin Jefferson leads with 783).
• Ninth in receptions (42; Malik Nabers leads with 55).
• Tied for first among receivers in touchdowns (six) with Mike Evans, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Drake London.
Five receivers league-wide match or exceed McLaurin’s yards and receptions, but only Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb are in the NFC. Include touchdowns, and only Ja’Marr Chase, an AFC stalwart, reaches all three marks.
The sixth-year veteran also ranks eighth among NFC receivers in receptions per target (70 percent, minimum 40 targets) and is tied for third in receptions resulting in first downs/touchdowns (31) with Nabers. McLaurin is one of only three NFC receivers averaging at least 15 air yards per target (minimum 40).
This shows good competition for four wide receiver Pro Bowl slots even before mentioning Jayden Reed and DK Metcalf or recognizing the Philadelphia Eagles’ duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. McLaurin has not missed games with injuries, unlike Evans, Metcalf and others, but his numbers were muted during the first two weeks (eight receptions for 39 yards and no touchdowns) while Kingsbury slow-walked the explosive Daniels era.
Since then, McLaurin has had four games with at least 98 receiving yards and twice scored two touchdowns. The remaining schedule projects a more challenging passing test than the first nine weeks (though the overall strength of schedule is 26th). The two games against the Dallas Cowboys represent the only foe ranking in the bottom 10 in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) stat.
We shouldn’t assume the remaining defenses can slow down the Daniels-McLaurin momentum.
I believe Daniels, right guard Sam Cosmi and linebacker/nine-time selection Bobby Wagner will join McLaurin on the NFC Pro Bowl roster. Maybe kicker Austin Seibert and, if he remains healthy, running back Brian Robinson Jr. will also get nods.
Rookie Mike Sainristil will make big strides
Sainristil, a second-round cornerback with more physicality than his 5-foot-10 physique suggests, lived inside the lines through two games. According to Pro Football Focus, Sainristil played 76 of 101 snaps from the slot. But things changed by Week 3. Emmanuel Forbes Jr. needed thumb surgery after the season opener. His replacement, Michael Davis, lost his spot in the rotation after Nabers torched the eight-year veteran in Week 2. Since Noah Igbinoghene primarily helps in the slot, the coaching staff moved Sainristil to the perimeter. Sainristil played 61 of 62 snaps on the outside in the Monday night victory at Cincinnati. Of his 64 snaps in Sunday’s win over the Giants, 56 were out wide.
We’ve seen the fearless tackler enter the fray despite his limited size. Assuming recently acquired Marshon Lattimore and Benjamin St-Juste are the tandem in two-cornerback sets, Sainristil would sit down in three-safety looks. Regardless of the number of snaps he gets, Sainristil will be playing his more natural position in the slot, which should increase his development and production.
Johnny Newton’s performance makes moving on from Jonathan Allen easier
Stating the two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle won’t return isn’t a reach. Allen’s 2025 salary-cap hit of $23 million isn’t viable for his age-30 season, especially when he will miss this season’s final 11 games following a season-ending torn pectoral. But that’s different than stating there’s an obvious replacement.
Enter Newton, the powerful second-round pick now starting next to Daron Payne. According to data from PFF, in his last two games, Newton is among positional leaders in quarterback hits (three, tied first) and QB hurries (four) to go with one sack and one fumble recovery. PFF’s evaluations grade the former University of Illinois star second among all interior defensive linemen over those two weeks.
“Johnny’s just each day, man, he’s getting better,” defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. said. “The explosion is really what you see, the power for a guy that you might not think is as big. He has power. He’s a sponge. He listens to everything that (the assistant coaches) give him.”
The final eight games will further show why Washington’s choice to draft Newton was a wise investment.
Jayden Daniels receives MVP votes despite throwing another two interceptions
Mentioning the turnovers is a joke, of course, and a nod to the low number of interceptions the rookie quarterback has thrown through nine games. Acknowledging the heavily favored Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate in the Most Valuable Player conversation is no laughing matter.
So many angles highlight the statistical prowess and importance of the No. 2 pick in April’s draft for the NFC East-leading Commanders:
• Second in completion percentage (71.5) among players with at least 200 pass attempts. That’s also first among rookies all time through nine games (minimum 100 attempts).
• Only Lamar Jackson, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield rank above Daniels in total offense (2,404 yards).
• Among qualifiers, only Jackson is above Daniels in expected points added (EPA) per dropback (.271).
• Daniels’ 459 rushing yards lead all rookies, including running backs.
Then there are team accomplishments:
• First all time in scoring drive percentage (60.7) through nine weeks.
• Second-most points scored (263) in team history through nine weeks.
• Biggest year-over-year jump in offensive EPA (16.0).
That last metric comes from The Athletic’s senior national writer Mike Sando, whose midseason awards story highlights Daniels’ MVP candidacy.
#NFL MVP comps from this piece… https://t.co/qHNeoVq1bV pic.twitter.com/DOOcviwTGZ
— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) November 7, 2024
The most impressive note of all is the dual-threat rookie’s effect on the entire Washington organization. There has been nothing but good vibes since his arrival, and the Commanders’ record (7-2) reflects the on-field turnaround for a franchise that has not had a winning record since 2016.
The reality is Daniels, fifth in BetMGM’s MVP odds, probably needs a bonkers final eight games to pass Jackson, Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Detroit’s Jared Goff. The late legendary running back Jim Brown (1957) is the first and only player in league history to win MVP and Rookie of the Year in the same season.
Last season, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud became the 15th rookie to receive MVP votes and the first since Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson in 2008.
Forbes will be inactive for the remaining games
The caveat here is injuries elsewhere, of course. Otherwise, the 2023 first-round pick is out of the rotation until further notice. That was true even before the Lattimore trade. Already a healthy scratch in the Week 6 loss at Baltimore, Forbes was the only non-quarterback not to take a snap in Sunday’s win at the Giants.
Washington made Forbes available at the trade deadline, per multiple league sources. The rail-thin defender struggles with physicality in the run game, which helps explain why he’s played only five special teams snaps this season. As part of the special teams units, Davis would be the fifth cornerback on game days.
That no first-round pick between Payne (2018) and Daniels is contributing to games reminds us of the talent deficit that general manager Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn inherited. What’s most notable is how little the conversation about failed or traded draft picks from the previous regimes matters anymore.
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Commanders will win NFC East
This is a two-team race. The Eagles (6-2) and Commanders (7-2) have both head-to-head matchups remaining, including next week’s Thursday night clash in Philadelphia. Either squad sweeping the other dramatically shifts the odds. The advantage for the locals is consistency. Washington hasn’t produced a clunker since the season opener, but that came with acceptable growing pains.
Philadelphia has won four consecutive games entering Sunday’s meeting against the Dak Prescott-less Cowboys. That stretch came with meh but good enough outings against the underwhelming Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars. Any struggles generate heat and headlines for an Eagles team with massive outside expectations. Meanwhile, Washington needs to win only half of its remaining eight games to finish with 11 wins for the first time since 1991. That makes a possible 12-5 record even more remarkable.
(Top photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
