EL SEGUNDO, Calif. — Since February, Los Angeles Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have talked about building a “balanced” offense.
Harbaugh used the word in his introductory news conference on Feb 1. Three weeks later, Roman used the word in his first meeting with local reporters.
So far this season, Harbaugh and Roman have successfully created a “balanced” offense. Through four games, the Chargers designed rush rate is 49.3 percent, according to TruMedia. They are the closest team to a 50-50 split between designed rushes and dropbacks.
What Harbaugh and Roman have not created, however, is an efficient, effective or reliable offense. And as the Chargers head into their bye week, this is the area of the team that must improve the most.
“Not a finished product in our mind,” Harbaugh said of the offense Monday, a day after the Chargers fell to 2-2 with a home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The traditional and advanced statistics tell a similar story.
The Chargers are 28th in yards per game, 24th in points per game and last in first downs per game. Most notably, the Chargers offense has deteriorated in second halves. They have not scored a third- or fourth-quarter touchdown since Week 1. Only the New York Giants have scored fewer second-half points this season.
On an efficiency basis, the Chargers are 26th in EPA per play and 31st in success rate, according to TruMedia.
They have remained stubbornly committed to a rushing attack that has fallen off a cliff after a promising start. Over the past two weeks, the Chargers rank dead last in rushing success rate, according to TruMedia.
This all coincides with the worst production stretch of quarterback Justin Herbert’s career. Through his first four NFL seasons, Herbert started 62 games. He threw for at least 180 yards in 59 of those games. This season, Herbert has started four games. He has not thrown for more than 180 yards in any of them.
Herbert has never finished a season with a negative EPA per dropback, according to TruMedia. He has a negative EPA per dropback through four games this season. Herbert ranks 24th among 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback.
He is 29th in total passing yards. The Carolina Panthers’ Andy Dalton is 39 yards behind Herbert, and Dalton has only started two games. Herbert is 71 yards behind the Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love, who has also only played two games.
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The Packers are an interesting comparison, as their head coach and play caller Matt LaFleur leaned into the running game heavily while Love missed two games with a knee injury.
By setting more specific parameters, we can more clearly determine a team’s commitment to the run. How often is a team calling designed rushes on first and second downs in the first 28 minutes of games? The Athletic’s Mike Sando coined the Cook Index a few years back. By setting these parameters, we can avoid play calls that are influenced by time remaining, score differential, third downs, etc.
The Packers are No. 1 in the league in designed rush rate in these situations at 63 percent, according to TruMedia. The Chargers are fourth at 57.1 percent. The two teams have been equally efficient on these designed rushes: The Chargers have a success rate of 34 percent, the Packers are at 33 percent.
The difference? The Packers have been able to supplement this run-heavy approach with an efficient passing attack. Over the two weeks Love missed, the Packers ranked fifth in EPA per dropback with Malik Willis at quarterback. In total, the Packers are 12th in EPA per dropback.
Harbaugh has been effusive about Herbert’s talents. Just on Monday, he said, “It’s incredible what he can do, the accuracy that he can throw with to any point of the field.”
Why not lean into that?
The whole premise was to give Herbert more help and allow him to operate with some semblance of a running game threat. That was supposed to elevate the team as a whole. As Roman said in February, when he was asked about balancing a running game with a quarterback as talented as Herbert: “That’s where you have to come back to what your ultimate concern is, and for us, it’s winning.”
The Chargers are 2-2.
“I don’t come out of a game and say it needs to have this balance or that balance,” Harbaugh said Monday. “You’re doing what you can in that particular game and in that particular situation to move the ball and put the ball into the end zone. Now we didn’t get that done in the second half (against the Chiefs), and we haven’t done it in the fourth quarter. The facts are we didn’t get that done the previous week (against the Pittsburgh Steelers). So yeah, it’s a point of emphasis to get that unit humming, especially when it matters most.”
For the most efficient results, the running game has to be a means to an end. It has to open things up down the field and create chances for Herbert to throw into advantageous looks.
That has not happened so far this season.
There are, of course, extenuating circumstances to consider.
Herbert has been nursing a high ankle sprain, and that has affected what Roman can call in the quarterback-move game. It has also affected Herbert’s playmaking outside the pocket.
The offensive line is banged up. Left tackle Rashawn Slater (pec) and right tackle Joe Alt (knee) got injured in Week 3 and did not play Sunday against the Chiefs. The run game was not the same Sunday with both of them out. It also declined in the second half against the Steelers after Slater was sidelined. And the pass protection has been a mess. Herbert was pressured on 44.9 percent of his dropbacks in Weeks 3 and 4, including 51.7 percent of his dropbacks against the Chiefs.
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The Chargers are also dealing with injuries at receiver. DJ Chark has not played this season after landing on injured reserve with a hip injury. Chark was going to be the primary receiver to attack the deep part of the field, especially outside the numbers. Joshua Palmer has also dealt with multiple injuries this season. He missed the Steelers game. He has played just 52.6 percent of the offensive snaps.
The receiver room was already a weakness. The injuries have made that weakness even more glaring. According to TruMedia, so far this season, the Chargers rank 22nd in average separation between the targeted receiver and the nearest defender at the time of the ball’s arrival.
“It’s been good,” Harbaugh said of his overall assessment of the offense. “But we got to take that step from good to great.”
The Chargers have been in close games the past two weeks. That is more a function of the defense than anything else.
The offense has to get better after the bye.
Harbaugh and Roman could start by giving Herbert more chances to do what he does best: throw the football.
(Top photo: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
